Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Three quick predictions

1) House Republicans will now suddenly rediscover fiscal responsibility.

2) The 'caravan' will hardly be mentioned going forward.

3) Trump will grow irritated by "Dems win House" stories and will fire Sessions, probably in humiliating fashion, in the next few days to move the headlines along

[iam416]

Ohio is looking more and more like it's turning into Missouri. Once a bellwether, now increasingly just red.

It's way closer to Indiana than it is to Pennsylvania. I've been harping on this for awhile, but if the Rs were competent they'd keep pushing really hard in B10 states that have a tradition of voting D but that are still "Middle America." They're going to need them when they eventually lose Arizona.

And, of course, they need to keep NC and Florida. Georgia, to a lesser extent, as it's still pretty damn red.

Another point that caught my eye is that this nonsense about "House Popular Vote." I didn't realize that the Rs won the House vote in 2010, 2014 AND in 2016. Yes, 2016. What's interesting to me, though, is that House outcomes aren't overly dependent on House Popular Vote. In 2014 they won by a whopping 5.5 points and only won 13 seats. In 2016 they won by 1.1 points and LOST 8 seats. The Ds are going to win by about 7 points and pick up 35ish seats.

What determines big House swings isn't necessarily the House Popular Vote, it's who's sitting in low-hanging centrist districts. In 2010 the Ds were grossly over-represented after 2008 and took an absolute beating well beyond their popular vote loss. But 2014, the Rs had pretty much picked off all the low-hanging fruit so even though they crushed the Ds in the popular vote, they only picked up a handful of seats. And by 2016 they were exposed such that even winning the popular vote meant a loss. The Ds, in 2018, had a target rich environment in a huge year so the results are expected. One would expect that the Ds can't really improve much in 2020 and probably need to win the popular vote to hold steady.

That's what actually happens. Of course, the Prog mantra (not necessarily the D mantra) is that they never lose, the Rs just cheat through gerrymandering (Massachusetts is 9-0!) or institutions designed to protect slave-holders (my personal favorite).

[iam416]

2) The 'caravan' will hardly be mentioned going forward.

I thought I read that they ended their journey by seeking asylum from Mexico (properly, I might add). Not that facts would necessarily stop PDJT, but it seems like the story is at end because their journey is at end.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well with the Senate R lead growing it's painfully obvious the American voter can simply not be trusted...or the Russians failed...or lots of hanging chads...or the dead people stayed home...whatever the case the Dems really botched this midterm...

[Dr. Strangelove]

24 Republican members of the House Ways and Means Committee who essentially wrote the tax bill.

6 retired before the election fearing a loss; 4 more lost yesterday.

CNN had an exit poll showing about 70% of voters say the tax cut either did nothing for them or had no impact. What a dud.

[froot loops]

I think I've told this story before but in 2016, Channel 4 in Detroit had to cancel sending a local TV personality to the Rio Olympics that was planned for a long time. The main reason being they were losing expected money because nobody was spending money on campaign ads. The guy who told me this is a news director in another market now, but basically their whole budget for the year in election years are based disproportionately on campaign ads. You could not tell it was a presidential election year.

Fast forward to 2018 and you would have thought it was a presidential year based on the ads, but you would have thought Haley Stevens or Elissa Slotkin were running for president. They had air superiority for house races that I can never recall.

[froot loops]

Upton and MacArthur survived. They were the ones who handed the Democratic candidates the pre-existing condition talking point.

[iam416]

Fast forward to 2018 and you would have thought it was a presidential year based on the ads, but you would have thought Haley Stevens or Elissa Slotkin were running for president. They had air superiority for house races that I can never recall.

In Columbus, at least, it really seemed like the Ds had a huge air advantage. It was sorta even for Governor, but Senate had to be about 20:1 and lesser offices were hugely D. For OH-12, Danny O'Conner was probably at 10:1.

Based on that alone I thought the Ds had enough to offset the natural R lean in Ohio and maybe win the state offices by a point or 2. Instead, they probably carved 8 point losses down to 6.

And O'Conner was dead from the minute he lost the special election with a hugely beneficial turnout ratio. Once that district increased turnout it was over.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Tester behind by almost 2,000 votes exactly. There are only 4 counties not at 100% reporting. Where they are and the margins Tester won them by is why people still think he can win

Missoula (73% reporting)
Tester: 19,843
Rosendale: 10,360

Cascade (Great Falls) (83% reporting)
Tester: 11,922
Rosendale: 9,641

Gallatin (Bozeman) (81% reporting)
Tester: 17,164
Rosendale: 11,137

Hill (88% reporting)
Tester: 4,720
Rosendale: 3,653

[Dr. Strangelove]

Also, it could be days before a winner is declared in Arizona. Despite most sites showing 99% of the precincts are in, that's actually not true.

There are 500,000 to 600,000 (mostly in the Phoenix area) that have not yet been counted. I guess in Arizona, unlike other states, they count the early votes last or something.

http://ktar.com/story/2297210/mcsally-sinema-senate-winner-might-not-be-decided-for-days/

[THE_WIZARD_]

^shaddup

[Kapture1]

24 Republican members of the House Ways and Means Committee who essentially wrote the tax bill.

6 retired before the election fearing a loss; 4 more lost yesterday.

CNN had an exit poll showing about 70% of voters say the tax cut either did nothing for them or had no impact. What a dud.

nobody has filed their taxes for the first year of the lower rate.

that number is likely to change

[froot loops]

I would think if Sinema loses she is first in line for the special election next year.

[iam416]

Apparently the tax cuts weren't good for House Rs. Speaking of something that was piss poor for Senate Ds, the ol' Kav vote really put it to them in red states. Given how surprisingly close Manchin was to losing, I think there's a very strong case that his vote for Kav saved his ass. Tester is hugely popular and it's coming down to the final precincts. He should have enough to barely, I mean, barely win. McCaskill and Heitkamp were crushed. And Nelson managed to lose.

Re Arizona -- the NRO guy (Henry Olsen) that I've been following and that does almost precinct by precinct analysis thinks Arizona is done.

I think the Ds had a really good night in securing Virginia as a bluish state and getting Pennsylvania and especially M back in line. I think the close race in Arizona is an overall good sign for them. I guess I should also take a looksy and see how NC went. I think their losses in Florida are devastating both on a state level and as portending future outcomes. And I think their losses in Ohio are really bad.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I mentioned it last night, but Florida voted to restore voting rights to 1.5 M ex-felons last night. Needed 60% to pass and it did.

That's a significant new body of votes (IF they vote). For perspective about 8.2 M total voted in a Senate race decided by 30,000 votes