Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Overnight stuff:

Tester is down by less than 2,000 votes and nearly all the votes still counting are in counties he's winning by good margins (especially Missoula). Sinema behind by about 15,000 I think but not sure there's enough left for her to make a comeback except maybe absentees? Heller loses just like the Nevada experts predicted (Only R Senator to lose)

Dana Rohrabacher, Putin's favorite Congressman, appears to have been ousted in California

Duncan Hunter won though. Indicted Republican who ran on a single-issue of Islamaphobia. San Diego should be embarrassed

Trump personally got Mark Sanford beat in his South Carolina primary. But now his preferred, more loyal-to-him candidate just lost.

Mia Love in big, big trouble in Salt Lake City. Down 4,000 votes and I think they've only got absnetees left?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Oh and Scott Walker is GONE

[Kapture1]

wow, I wasn't thinking Montana when I went to sleep...

55-45 looks likely.

[Kapture1]

Stacy Abrams lost

[Dr. Strangelove]

Feel pretty good about Tester based on the amount of outstanding votes and where those are coming from. Cook political report guy has already called the race for him (as of about 2 hours ago)

[iam416]

DSL:

One day, Padwan, you'll listen to me. I told you, repeatedly, that Nevada was the state the Rs would lose, not Arizona. Granted, they still may lose Arizona, but one of them was a clear defeat.

I think the Ds win Nevada and lose Arizona. If I had to bet on it, I may bet on the Rs in Indiana before Nevada.

In responding to a post of 538 projections with Sinema and Donnelly each at about 65% to win:

[iam416]

Tester is shocking. Even if he wins. Manchin only won by 3. McCaskill got dusted by 6. Donnelly got railed. Heitkamp was Rutgers to Cramer's M. And the Ds managed to lose Florida.

Claire, Kav say "hi!"

[iam416]

My biggest takeways are (1) the Senate is going to rough for the Ds for awhile; (2) both parties need to be careful with the centrist suburbs, but the Rs especially -- if you lose them 2 or 3 elections in a row then they may just be lost; and (3) the states that matter for 2020 are Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona -- those are all states PDJT won. The Rs statewide wins in Ohio and Florida in this environment while getting outspent bodes well for them in 2020 while getting crushed in Pennsylvania does not. Michigan and Wisconsin will probably go back to blue IF the Ds nominate a good candidate and Arizona seems likely to go against PDJT. If PDJT wins in Ohio and Florida and loses in PA, he'd need to win 2 of the other 3 to win in 2020.

[froot loops]

Pennsylvania is the battleground state for the presidency.

Everyone loves Amy

[iam416]

That's probably right. But, PDJT can still win if he gets Ohio/Florida an then Arizona and Wisconsin. Michigan is still blue. Wisconsin, though, I think may have some purple in it.

Everyone loves Amy

They could (and probably will) do a lot, lot worse.

[froot loops]

I've been saying it for a while but that 2016 Michigan was political malpractice. It didn't matter because they lost Pennsylvania and they tried there but still bad.

[iam416]

The entire 2016 election was political malpractice. But, yes, finding a way to lose Michigan was the nadir. Pennsylvania swings, but I think it's bluish, now. Wisconsin is swingy, too, even it's bluish. Michigan, not really that swingy.

Also, HRC needed to win all 3 of PA, MI and WI. That's why AZ is so key, IMO. If the Ds can pull that then they don't have to sweep those states. So, IMO, those are the 4 key states in 2020. Of course, Ohio and Florida are key, but if the Ds win those they're easily winning the 3 Big 10 states and maybe even Arizona.

[CGVT]

Speaking of Roy, a great man and jurist, Bob Vance, lost his bid to be elected Chief Justice of the Alabama SpCt. Tom Parker, a long-time Moore supporter (who makes Moore look sane), won.

Vance is a circuit judge in the area. His dad, who was also a judge, was assassinated by a mail bomb a number of years back. Bob is one of the fairest, most competent people I know. I told him I would pull the lever and vote for him on nearly any office he ran for. He has a D behind his name, though, and in this state that's poison. Pity. Such a pity. Cue Christian monuments in the statehouse and the de facto repeal of Roe v Wade in the state.

Fuckin' Alabama

Yep. Things went pretty well as expected in Alabama. The ballot proposals that passed are so ridiculous, and they knew it when they put them on the ballot, that the one proposing allowing the 10 Commandments on Gov't property even stipulated that no state money could be used to defend it in court. That shit was pushed by Dean Young, another Roy Moore acolyte.

It is really too bad about Vance. I was hoping the people of Alabama were not as fucked up as I thought. From everything I read, he was the right guy for the job and Parker is an absolute train wreck.

[AlabamAlum]

CGVT,

Yeah, Parker is the Palpatine behind Darth Roy. Vance is just what I said he is. It's all disappointing. And the amendments were insulting (except maybe for #3). Many didn't even read the amendments. Saw a lady in the crowd who said she voted yes on them because they talked about what Jebus would want at her church. Fuck me.

The one republican who lost in this area was the JeffCo sherriff, Hale. He was decent and caring. But he ran against a subordinate who was black and a dem in an inner city area where being a white republican is actually a detriment.

Bah.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Ohio is looking more and more like it's turning into Missouri. Once a bellwether, now increasingly just red.