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Kyrsten Sinema is done.
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One of the Roy Moore accusers just hired Gloria Allred!! It's over!! Moore by double digits!!! LULZComment
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Rasmussen may not have pinpoint accuracy as part of their track record but them having a huge skew to the Right is an old wives' tale. I believe that Nate Silver's numbers demonstrate this. I don[t believe that they try very hard to get states correct and they are more of a national opinion polling outfit that takes the country's pulse on issues (Kavanaugh, immigration, country going in the right direction, etc). At any rate, they are showing a more favorable situation right now on the generic ballot than they were showing back in either 2010 or 2014 (dead even now vs. Ds +2 in 2014) and they having been showing Trump's approval rating solidly at 49% for I think a couple of weeks. Do with that information as you will. I was actually hoping that Talent was paying attention since he has taken up a defeatist view of Republican election chances that eclipses my view of UM's chances against OSU.Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View PostLast edited by Hannibal; October 13, 2018, 09:47 AM.Comment
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EDIT: Deleted my previous reply as you gave more detailOriginally posted by Hannibal View Post
Fair enough. Nate Silver gives them a C+ overall which I believe is based on the past couple of years of polling.
In 2008, CNN, Reuters, McClatchy, IBD, NBC, and Fox News all came closer to predicting Obama's MOV than Rasmussen.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...obama-225.html
In 2012, Rasmussen was among the LEAST ACCURATE among 20 different polling services, despite conducting more polls than nearly everyone else. Rasmussen was one of the few predicting a Romney victory.
https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...idential-race/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...bama-1171.html
There truly is no "best pollster" out there which is why averages are far closer to the truth than relying on any one company.Comment
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I don't ignore other polls FWIW. RCP right now shows the House race at 205 Dems and 201 Republicans, with 30 toss-ups. Considering how scattered and rare polls are on a scale as small as district house races, that might as well be dead even. But if they are right then it means that the Dems will hold a narrow majority and not the blowout that most people think is coming. RCP also shows the Senate as 53-47 in favor of the Rs with no toss-ups -- no blue wave there. Governor races seem to favor big time pickups for the Dems. I haven't really followed those so I don't know what that means. I live in Ohio and I have barely heard anything about the Governor's race here.Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove
At any rate, like I said, Rasmussen's latest generic ballot shows the Rs in a more favorable position than they were in 2014. Do with that information as you will.Last edited by Hannibal; October 13, 2018, 10:05 AM.Comment
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Other Generic ballot polls listed below. There's a bunch. The most recent Rasmussen poll is the only one showing a tie. A week earlier Rasmussen had it as Dems +5
I do not know if Rasmussen still uses robocalls to do most of its polling but those are more unreliable than actual humans. I also do not know if Rasmussen's model this year believes the voter composition will look like a normal midterm election, and how much they are figuring in Democrat enthusiasm which was seen throughout all special elections in 2017 & 18.Comment
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Many of my peers, Geezer, are now employed writing press releases for the county commission or ghostwriting speeches for some random trade industry exec. It's awful what's happened to journalism, but I'm glad that I haven't had to take some shit job that robs me of all exposure. Whatever I've done, it's made the difference and allowed me to at least stay in the game. I'm more of an entrepreneur than you are, busy investing your daddy's money in educational ventures that violate human norms of decency.Comment
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In other news, in the credit-where-its-due department Trump deserves some for getting Brunson out of Turkey. Its regretful that public resources should be spent on the private matters of any religion. Missionaries too often are just simply itinerant trolls, and should not be rescued from the trouble they cause by anyone other than their own co-believers. But, under the current system we afford those people access to citizen services, and in this case the job was very well done, in large part because aggressive-meathead tactics were met with a bigger/better version of the same thing.Comment
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Heh. That result for 2012 is pretty embarrassing. Their last few elections do average out to a slight Republican skew but it's in the neighborhood of +1 or +2, which isn't zero but it's not indicative of them being a bogus outfit.Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View PostComment
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IF [Republicans = keep Senate]Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
then
RUN [tantrum.exe]
cRIoK5z.pngComment
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Great article from Ramesh on just how brazenly partisan the press was in trying to defeat Kav: https://www.nationalreview.com/magaz...l-court-press/
They once again validated, with flying colors, PDJT's view of them.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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