Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Da Geezer]

Hack:

Trump is a big boy. He can take it. He is no victim, which is why I initially didn't post the Breitbart stuff. Watch the video, and tell me that he favors a database for all Muslims. He doesn't even come close to saying that. As far as I can see, he may favor a database for Syrian refugees, but not for Muslim citizens.

He was asked his position on something and he stated it clearly, and, after given the chance to back off it, he did not.

Agreed. He was clearly talking about stopping illegal immigration at the border. When the NBC "journalist" kept shouting the incendiary question, Trump ignored him. He even asked the NBC guy who he worked for, found out NBC, and ignored him. For crying out loud watch the video. Silence means silence.

But this flies in the face of what you learned in J school. We were having a good exchange of views until you told me that I was a liar, that no one could have financial success without having a rich family. That didn't fit your paradigm. I quit talking.

Then recently we get into this global warming. My question is so simple: Are you willing to spend $ 1 Trillion per year to mitigate global warming? Unlike NBC, I don't take silence as anything else than silence.

The article you wrote that Liney posted was terrific. What you said was factual and prudent. (BTW, could you repost the link to that article?). That is so rare. I'm not sure that you understand that. Honesty in the media on either side is so rare. Just say the word and I'll not be confrontational again with you. But until you say so, I'll try to get you to question what you believe.

Frankly, at least I'm glad Trump finally found something to say that wasn't actually acceptable.

Unfortunately, His fans won't give that a second thought

[hack]

Well, look -- I went out of my way to say that I didn't equate elite with having the world handed to you on a silver platter. To start, I did not realize you'd defined elite the way you do. Mine is a dictionary definition. Yours is a customized one. Once I realized that, I went out of my way to suggest that amongst people who start out their career with some family capital, some are entitled little shits who do nothing and others are people who take that start-up capital and truly make the most of it. I clearly placed you in the latter category based on what you'd told me. To my mind, that conversation ultimately veered off in quite a few directions in which you asked me to respond to something, I did, and then instead of responding in kind you moved on to a next subject. Felt like some sort of series of litmus tests. I'm for two-way exchanges.

As for climate change, I don't know what it's going to cost, but no matter what, at this point, there will be costs. The question is who bears the brunt and whether in the process we move to a carbon-light economy. Values aside, I think there's an economic case to be made for doing what we can at this point. I don't know what you mean by ``spend $1tn a year''. To be sure in some cases there will be more-expensive options selected if climate change is heeded. Not in all. There will be new economic opportunities. Rent seeking will be punished and innovation rewarded. Consumption is expected to be much lower as efficiencies are achieved. I don't know of a real, serious cost-benefit analysis, but that would be truly guesswork. Peak-oil skeptics like to point out that the theory fails to appreciate the power of innovation. Well, same applies to going carbon-light. Innovation there will, in the decades to come, make a mockery of what we think we know now. Ultimately I'm fine to pay the costs. I think that what can't go on won't. Economic activity has to be sustainable. If it's not, that causes problems. The economic, social and political upheaval if we don't pay those costs will be very serious.

Ultimately, well, I'm just not sure where you're coming from. Sometimes it seems like you are ``manipulating your baseline'', as you would say. I am doing no such. I don't see what the point would be here. I don't expect to change minds and don't see the point in a values-based appeal, as we all have different values. My point is that there are facts, and if they can't be the starting point then there's no point at all. I would not be interested in treating this forum like an electorate and throwing rhetoric at it. I.E. ``We were having a good exchange of views until you told me that I was a liar, that no one could have financial success without having a rich family." I don't think I said that. I would never. I think clearly there are statistics out there that say financial success that vaults one across class lines is less common that it used to be. Perhaps I was referring to that, but I do not believe that financial success comes only from being raised in a rich family.

Thanks for the compliment. http://www.newyorker.com/business/cu...nd-microcredit. To an extent, I do agree. I have my own thoughts on why this actually is, such as the massive exodus of talent and funding out of journalism, and the leverage government has used to keep journalists away from useful information, in particular since the ramp-up in classifying documents in the early 2000s. And, of course, I'm not the only one doing what I am doing, and not everything I write comes out so wonderfully. Credit to the NYer for having a very functional and professional editing process. I don't have the luxury of working with publications that wonderful every time. Sometimes the process can be very difficult and not beneficial at all to the end result.

That said: ``But this flies in the face of what you learned in J school.'' Sure isn't my way, no. I don't do broadcast, to start, because it's infantile no matter what. But there is a value in cornering key figures and getting them on the record about something. I don't see that it was unethical. Politicians are slippery. Sometimes you just have to be annoying and sticky with them.

[Da Geezer]

Hack:

Thank you.

I'm not trying to go off subject, but I watched "60 minutes" tonight, and I'd like to know what you know about M-PESA in Kenya. It seemed to me to sort of fit with your article.

I'm always against government censorship, and I view classified material with some skepticism. On one hand, Hillary is providing information so slowly to the Federal Judge that has demanded it that it will take years at this rate. OTOH, as far as I know, of all the "classified" documents she ran through her server, last I heard only 4 were top secret.

I say atomize power wherever you see it. If man is evil, then that is the best course. And the Roman Catholic Church believes firmly in the goodness of man, which is why I get upset at the overrepresentation of Catholics in powerful positions in the permanent government and media. Catholic doesn't mean Christian, but in the box I drew, it might.

[hack]

Thanks for mentioning that about M-Pesa. That 60 Minutes piece is a decent overview of what M-Pesa is, but there's a lot more to it that's quite interesting, and you're right it's a fit with what I'm doing. More on that later -- busy day today...

[hack]

So, yeah. The scope of this 60 Minutes was on the product itself and seemingly what mobile money might one day look like in the US, but there are other interesting things to say. One is that M-Pesa is a monopoly, and fees are really high. Significant frustration from users about that, and as of spring 2013, when I was there, people were starting to stop using it where possible, to avoid the fees. The backstory is that the UK Dept of Intl Development, equivalent to USAID, provided funding and by working with one telco and one bank only they created a big bad monopoly that is going to be difficult for Kenya to deal with. I would love to know if, given a do-over, the Brits would have done it differently. Competition is starting though, and interestingly enough the lines between telco and bank are getting blurry there. CBS is right that Kenya is a laboratory.

Another interesting thing is that this type of mobile-phone platform has been tried in quite a few countries and Kenya is the only one in which it's really taken off. The story I have not yet been able to write about this is that many aid agencies are backing off microcredit in favor of funding research into mobile-phone platforms. They see that they have massive potential. But there needs to be more skepticism. It's been seven years since M-Pesa, and people have been calling it transformative. There's been all that usual techtopia talk, but Kenya's GDP lags that of the East Africa region in that period. Even though it is the economic engine of the region. Of course a lot of other things go into a GDP stat, but it's a bit of a thing to note. There's also an inconsistency in approach. People say that microcredit shouldn't be funded anymore because the data shows it's effectiveness is only limited. Where do they want the funding to go? To a thing for which there is no data! You'd think that maybe data-centric people would want it to tell them both where to put their efforts and where not to. That's a problem across the spectrum. Gov't development and private too. The Gates Foundation is the chief culprit. In truth microcredit may not be a game-changer, but it's a decent little thing that does some good. In comparison to most things in international development, that's a smashing success. Development is supposed to be a trial-and-error thing in which the failure rate is high but the hits are real big and impactful, but the failure rate is REALLY HIGH. So I wouldn't turn my nose up at something that is a modest little success. Maybe instead of abandoning it, tweak it for the better? And I'm sick of the techtopia talk. People have been telling me about the future with mobile phones for close to a decade now. When will the future get here, or when are these people going to moderate their claims a little? Dunno, but it's the same cycle with microcredit. It was invented, hype went through the roof, and there's early signs people either won't like it or that benefits will be modest at most.

[UMStan White]

Chad Carr died this afternoon. I have represented thousands of people who have been injured or lost a loved one. Nothing is worse than the loss of a child for whatever reason. It is so against the natural order of life. My thoughts and prayers are with the Carr family in this most difficult of times.

[Da Geezer]

Thanks Hack.

Sounds like I now have my own consultant on African matters.

I think it would be good for you, or anyone really, to visit acton.org, the Acton Institute. It is run Fr. Robert Sirico who was Tom Hayden's campaign manager in CA. The institute does a lot of good work in Africa. It is funded by what Sirico calls the "dutch mafia", and it has been consistently ranked as in the top 10 charities world-wide by a couple of the organizations that rank bang for the buck. Sorry that is so imprecise, but this is one place where they really try to do the "small things" that seem to be somewhat effective in the third world. I just think you might like some of their videos and commentary. Sirico could open doors for you in the publishing world too. He also prefers people with whom he disagrees.

Geezer story: I got 30 CDs of the sermon "Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God" by Jonathan Edwards, which is pure Calvinism. I brought them to the Institute, which is basically a building peopled with Catholics and Calvinists who are in a permanent state of intellectual warfare. So I was giving the CDs to the Priests, and a Fr. from Australia took his copy and smiled and said to me "We Aussies have always considered ourselves lucky that we got the criminals and you got the Calvinists."

[Dr. Strangelove]

Very sorry to hear about Chad Carr

[Dr. Strangelove]

Very interesting article from Der Spiegel...it's old but I only just ran across it. It suggests that the real reason Assad has turned to Putin for help is because he (and the Alawite ruling class) fear Iran is going to take away Syria from them

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/syria-leader-assad-seeks-russian-protection-from-ally-iran-a-1056263.html

[hack]

Heh -- thanks, Geezer. Kind of you to say. In truth it just happens that the piece coincides with a major topic for me this year, which is why I am sharp on it. It is really interesting though. Will check out Acton. Thanks.

[Da Geezer]

Hack:

Yes, but you are hitting on a subject that is ignored because you are arguing for small, and we all would rather go large. It is the nature of how we think. But smaller, more efficient, projects are not only a better use of funds, but it sometimes allows the giver the joy of being involved with the project. Not by you, but the message often gets stepped on that the giver is blessed too. Giving is a selfish act, and the older you get, the more selfish it becomes.

[hack]

Hack:

Yes, but you are hitting on a subject that is ignored because you are arguing for small, and we all would rather go large. It is the nature of how we think. But smaller, more efficient, projects are not only a better use of funds, but it sometimes allows the giver the joy of being involved with the project. Not by you, but the message often gets stepped on that the giver is blessed too. Giving is a selfish act, and the older you get, the more selfish it becomes.

Sure. Agreed.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Welp, got woken up at 4 AM by my phone screaming that WWIII was about to start! Hooray!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Um, wow. Putin pulling no punches on Turkey. Accuses them of a "stab in the back". Says they financially support ISIS and are buying illegal oil from them.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-jet-downed-by-turkish-planes-near-syrian-border-live-updates#block-56545f05e4b00f67a4bed957

[hack]

Hell yes! Gonna get some popcorn and pull up a chair for this one. I hope it goes the full 15 rounds. I would love to lock Putin and Erdogan in a room and throw away the key.