Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

There is reason to believe the 4 sealed indictments listed in between Papadapolous and Manafort/Gates are Mueller related. That is in the DC court, there is still the Rocket Docket.

[froot loops]

One thing about that 33 percent poll, so far it is an outlier, but if the aggregate gets down to 33 percent the House members are bound to get skittish. Get into the 20's and you start talking wave elections. That's what happened in 2006.

But you would have to see more evidence, he lost a percentage point a month from 44 to 37 but has stabilized since.

[Dr. Strangelove]

One thing about that 33 percent poll, so far it is an outlier, but if the aggregate gets down to 33 percent the House members are bound to get skittish. Get into the 20's and you start talking wave elections. That's what happened in 2006.

But you would have to see more evidence, he lost a percentage point a month from 44 to 37 but has stabilized since.

Very good point. It IS an outlier. But the general trend has been bad for him since September. Going into that last week of September his approval had recovered to almost pre-summer levels. Then it tanked again.

His RCP average is currently -17.5 but would be even worse were it not for one Emerson poll coducted 10/12-14 that said only -6.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/10/30/paul-manafort-judge-who-is-deborah-robinson.html

[froot loops]

The while poll thing is weird, it was always tracked in previous Presidencies but nothing like this. Maybe it's the Nate Silver effect.

[Kapture1]

So your argument is that a President being extremely unpopular has no impact on

a) his party's success in elections
b) his party's willingness to come out and vote

Who the Dems run will always matter, but to say that having 33% APPROVAL, won't impact any elections is, well, optimistic.

And for the record, the people aren't being polled on whether they like him, they're being polled on whether they think he's doing a good job. That doesn't mean they won't find him the lesser evil, sure. It's STILL BAD

I am optimistic. It isn't going to matter like you hope it will.

And the bottom line that is what people are answering. it's why there is a vast gulf between the job he's doing (which essentially is don't break stuff) and his approval numbers. Employment is trending in the right direction, economy is growing beyond expectations, taking 0bamas illegal and unconstitutional actions on DACA and insurance company subsidies and rightfully sent them to congress, N Korea has backed off of their rocket launches and threats, ISIS is hiding, hes about to get tax reform passed.

It went from he's Hitler, to he's unqualified and cant get anything done. That is where we are at. It will soon change to he's effective but we don't like what he's doing, by the years end. So no, im not worried about a personality poll.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Talent- Maybe you can speak to this some. An Twitter account I found through Jonah Goldberg (heh) seems to be pretty knowledgeable about the Law. He's pointing to an item that's gone virtually unnoticed by the media and it's the fact that a judge granted Mueller the power to waive attorney-client privilege with regards to Manafort.

The account says that it's extremely rare for a judge to grant that waiver and would probably have to be shown an extraordinary amount of evidence to grant it.

So just wondering if that's accurate and, not even thinking about the collusion question, if it means Mr. Manafort is in deep doo-doo

[ame]https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/925103358817349633[/ame]



EDIT: The media is picking up on this now

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/30/mueller-manafort-gates-testimony-244339

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump spent the morning fuming and watching tv in the Residence (longer than normal). He was late to arrive at the Oval Office. Wasn't worried about Manafort. Mood turned sour after the GP stuff broke.

People in WH may be more nervous about Gates than Manafort. Even after Manafort was fired, Gates continued to work on the campaign and even was on the White House staff for a few months. He was also employed by Tom Barrack, a longtime Trump friend, until he was fired just today. They're also more worried that Flynn could be indicted because he was around Trump much longer.

Donnie, you got problems. A lot of the folks in the WH are leakers. Not just the Clinton supporters either.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/upstairs-at-home-with-the-tv-on-trump-fumes-over-russia-indictments/2017/10/30/fd0d0b16-bd87-11e7-8444-a0d4f04b89eb_story.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

It's squeeze time ..... the Feds are notoriously good, as is any good prosecutor only magnified by 5x with the feds, at compelling cooperation to obtain a reduced sentence.

If I've got this right, Manfort is looking at major jail time unless he can plead down and he is only going to get that opportunity if he cooperates ..... just like GP did.

I have no idea if he has any juicy stuff on Trump or any of the Trump family that will implicate the President but, just speculating, if he does, and he gives it to the Feds to reduce jail time, it's going to be spectacular. Like potentially spectacularly destabilizing for the US.

If I were in a position of power in the Senate or the House, I would be seriously preparing for that eventuality...... and yeah, I know, Kapture, no evidence of collusion yet and quite frankly, as much as I dislike DJT and how he has sullied the presidency, I am hoping there is nothing to tie him to the shady, harmful to US interests shit Manafort was involved in.

[Dr. Strangelove]

It's squeeze time ..... the Feds are notoriously good, as is any good prosecutor only magnified by 5x with the feds, at compelling cooperation to obtain a reduced sentence.

If I've got this right, Manfort is looking at major jail time unless he can plead down and he is only going to get that opportunity if he cooperates ..... just like GP did.

I have no idea if he has any juicy stuff on Trump or any of the Trump family that will implicate the President but, just speculating, if he does, and he gives it to the Feds to reduce jail time, it's going to be spectacular. Like potentially spectacularly destabilizing for the US.

If I were in a position of power in the Senate or the House, I would be seriously preparing for that eventuality...... and yeah, I know, Kapture, no evidence of collusion yet and quite frankly, as much as I dislike DJT and how he has sullied the presidency, I am hoping there is nothing to tie him to the shady, harmful to US interests shit Manafort was involved in.

Something to watch as it develops is just how much cooperation GP gave the Feds. Lots of speculation that he may have worn a wire at least once in those three months between arrest and guilty plea.

Ok I'll go full conspiracy theory here for a bit...but this post from GP is supposedly real. Can't verify that he was there literally on Oct. 25, but it's when he posted the picture. I also can't verify that this is really GP's account, but someone at least claiming to be him posted that picture Oct. 24.

People have verified that he is outside Harrods in London. If he really was there anytime between late July and now, it'd be on DOJ permission...maybe DOJ 'business'

Now this is where the really nutty part starts...take a look at the map below and see what Embassy is about a block from Harrods. Can anyone think of a very well-known resident of that Embassy?

lol...thought this was amusing. Could all somehow be fake if it's possible to backdate twitter posts. Would be amazing if it turns out to be true...

[ame]https://twitter.com/GeorgePapa19/status/923078894634270720[/ame]

[ame]https://twitter.com/hopisen/status/925150217023967234[/ame]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well, that interview last night pretty much convinced the liberal holdouts that John Kelly isn't there out of sense of duty. He's there because he enjoys power and agrees with Trump on most matters of substance.

He basically made a a Trumpian "fine people, both sides" argument for the Civil War as well. Neither side's cause, apparently, was any better than the other. It was a dispute over Federalism. Yeah, that's the ticket.

“He was a man that gave up his country to fight for his state, which, 150 years ago, was more important than country. It was always loyalty to state first back in those days. Now it’s different today. But the lack of an ability to compromise led to the Civil War. And men and women of good faith on both sides made their stand where their conscience had to make their stand.

[AlabamAlum]

The South's reason was (primarily) the fear that Lincoln would outlaw slavery (he had no plans to do so).

The North's primary reason for fighting was to reunite the Union. They certainly didn't fight to free the slaves.

Does that make the North's cause more righteous? Not really.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The North's reason for fighting changed over the course of the war. And at any rate, the end result of a northern victory was to end slavery. A victory by the Confederacy meant preserving it.

And 'failure to compromise'? The entire history of America up to 1860 is littered with slavery compromises. It's why the institution endured as long as it did.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Oh and by your own admission, the South fought out of fear they'd lose their slaves; the North fought to preserve the Union. Sort of boggles my mind you think the two positions carry equal moral weight and validity. The preservation of the country is no greater a cause than "we want our slaves"?

And also if the people of Memphis want to remove a statue honoring Nathan Bedford Forrest or Jefferson Davis (Memphis is now 63% black) who the hell does John Kelly think he is to tell them they can't; they should honor it as a representation of 'heritage and American values'?

[Kapture1]

Oh and by your own admission, the South fought out of fear they'd lose their slaves; the North fought to preserve the Union. Sort of boggles my mind you think the two positions carry equal moral weight and validity. The preservation of the country is no greater a cause than "we want our slaves"?

And also if the people of Memphis want to remove a statue honoring Nathan Bedford Forrest or Jefferson Davis (Memphis is now 63% black) who the hell does John Kelly think he is to tell them they can't; they should honor it as a representation of 'heritage and American values'?

all well and good. Problem is the Left, as always, takes it way too far. Wanting to tear down George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. Hell, they would get rid of the American flag if we'd let them.

[THE_WIZARD_]

The War of Northern Aggression was an abomination!