Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[CGVT]

This is from weatherunderground. I think it is pretty solid. When I was in the Coast Guard, I used to have access to a model that came from the University of South Alabama. That one was always spot on, but I tried to get into it and couldn't. They must have changed the password since I retired.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Who ..... NOAA, per se, doesn't have a model. They assemble all the models (the ECMWF is one of about 15) available to create the ensemble they use for their published forecasts.

The thing with NOAA that pisses me off is that they routinely seem to ignore the predictive power of the various models. Some have better predictive power (in other words they are right more than they are wrong) than others.

You've got it right with respect to the ECMWF. It is one model with a good record. They've been out to lunch too so, caveat emptor. But to me when you get to a 70% probability of a direct hit on South Florida, and that is exactly where we are using the most powerful models, WTF!!!

NOAA, an agency that is supposed to be OUR TRUSTED WEATHER SOURCE in such matters as Hurricanes is a pussy and doing a disservice to the residents of FL.

[whodean]

Who ..... NOAA, per se, doesn't have a model. They assemble all the models (the ECMWF is one of about 15) available to create the ensemble they use for their published forecasts.

I meant the GFS model

[Dr. Strangelove]

So it looks like the chance of it swerving away from the east coast entirely is pretty non-existent at this point?

[Jeff Buchanan]

So it looks like the chance of it swerving away from the east coast entirely is pretty non-existent at this point?

Yes, looking at some maps/tracks this morning, the projected center of the cone representing Irma through 2am Sunday morning appears to have sagged southward taking into the Straights of Florida.

Keep in mind, it's a cone so all of south Florida is in that cone. Noteworthy is that the projection takes the center of Irma's cone past 80w Longitude and it has still not turned Northward.

The cone represents the ensemble prediction. The ECMWF Model I've been following still has Irma in a direct hit on South Florida (Fort Meyers to Miami) and then shooting up the center of the Florida Penninsula then Northward into central GA.

Going a little easier on NOAA/NHC than I did last night. I can see and understand the disparities in the models. None of them have Irma tracking East of FL. Some of them have it tracking as I just described. Some have it tracking through the Straights of FL into the Gulf of Mexico, turning northward at various westward going latitudes from 80 degrees. You can see on the maps below that 80w is well on the Western side of the FL Peninsula.

Most of the models seem to be in agreement that Irma will hit South Florida though so, I'm sticking with that and pretty much what I said last night.

[Jeff Buchanan]

[Jeff Buchanan]

[CGVT]

FWIW, They have shifted the most probable track back a bit to the east

[hack]

If it nails Mar-a-Lago I may have to pick a religion.

[hack]

This was good fun:

https://www.ft.com/content/612b3c28-6789-3a76-b033-0baaef2a4f0b

Gary Cohn’s tangle over tax

Larry Summers blog

4 HOURS AGO by: Lawrence Summers

Given recent controversies, I was interested to read national economic council chairman Gary Cohn’s answer to a “why are you staying?” question put by Stuart Varney of Fox Business Network last week. To his credit, Mr Cohn did not back away from his reservations about the president’s response to Charlottesville. He said “Look, tax cuts are really important to me. I think it’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. We haven’t done tax cuts in 31 years. So, to be a part of an administration that gets something done that hasn’t been done for 31 years is enormously challenging, enormously interesting to me.”

The problem with this statement is how utterly wrong it is. Taxes were not cut 31 years ago. A central point of the 1986 Tax Reform Act was that it was revenue neutral. And since that time, taxes have been cut in 1997, 2001, 2003, 2009 and 2015.

Now perhaps Mr Cohn misspoke in invoking tax cuts three times and meant to convey with his references to 31 years ago that in his view there was a chance for another major tax reform achievement like that act. Fair enough. The trouble is that as best as one can glean from what is out there, the tax legislation the Trump administration is working towards is more opposed to, than in line with, the spirit of the 1986 act.

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 was all reform, with no net cut. The current effort is mostly cuts, with very little structural reform. The 1986 measure was about raising taxes on companies. The current effort is about reducing business taxes. TRA 1986 was about facing down well-heeled lobbyists; these groups seem centrally involved in the current effort. TRA 1986 was all about bipartisanship as Ronald Reagan worked closely with Democratic leaders. There is nothing bipartisan about the “Big 6” (Mr Cohn, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Steven Mnuchin, Orrin Hatch and Kevin Brady) driving the current effort.

And, given the increase in debt/gross domestic product ratios and rising income inequality, there is a stronger case to be made today than even three decades before for not moving in the costly, regressive direction the Trump administration appears headed.

Mr Cohn had a bad day with facts last Friday. In addition to his erroneous statements about the history of tax cuts, he asserted on CNBC that: “The biggest public pension funds are the biggest owners of equity in the world. They’re the policemen, they’re the firemen, they’re the teachers, they’re the civil servants of America today who have their money in public pension funds being managed in the U.S. equity market. We’re helping Americans by delivering returns back to them.”

There are two problems here. First, as CNBC noted while pension funds do hold stocks, most are held by the wealthy. Second, the vast majority of the pension funds to which Mr Cohn refers are defined benefit plans, with employers liable for a benefit tied to a worker’s salary path. This means, of course, that workers themselves do not have a wealth interest in how the stock market performs.

Press reports suggest a Gary Cohn may be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Certainly his extensive financial experience prepares him well for key parts of the job. But credibility is a crucial attribute in a Fed chair and that requires developing the habit of accuracy on matters of verifiable fact. It also requires the ability to stand up to misguided presidents.

[hack]

Now perhaps Mr Cohn misspoke in invoking tax cuts three times and meant to convey with his references to 31 years ago that in his view there was a chance for another major tax reform achievement like that act. Fair enough.

LOL, LOL, LOL. Very fair.

[THE_WIZARD_]

These hurricanes are all Trump's fault. Climate change resisting fucktard!

...mister we could use a man like Algore again...

[Dr. Strangelove]

DACA is done.

I'm all for getting legislation passed that effectively does the same thing, but there's every indication that the Sessions/Breitbart/Bannon wing of the arty, will fight like hell to make sure nothing passes. Sessions basically said as much in his speech, that DACA wasn't just unconstitutional, it was also bad policy and that real Americans are having their jobs stolen from them. Kris Kobach (the millions and millions of illegals are voting guy) said basically the same on MSNBC. DEPORT THEM ALL; NO EXCEPTIONS FOR KIDS.

Shameful stuff from those guys. Sessions also too much of a coward to take questions and Trump is even worse, won't appear to announce the policy change himself.

[iam416]

I'm all for getting legislation passed that effectively does the same thing

The reason Obama shit on the Constitution was this wasn't going to happen. I'm all for some sort of legislation to accomplish roughly the same thing as part of comprehensive immigration reform. There is, of course, zero chance of that happening and it's a two-way street.

But, whatever, he who lives by the EO dies by it.

[crashcourse]

Puerto rico is going to get hammered

I understand the angst of the daca folks but remember its another million who cant pay for themselves

would you rather pay for the daca illegals or the east Texan rebuild or the the 100 million 18-65ers already receiving entitlements

more takers then givers in this country

unless you want to turn into greece