U of M Basketball Recruiting Discussion

[*JD*]

Now, would Michigan consider a JuCo transfer. The only JuCo transfer I can remember for sure was PG Brandun Hughes, who came in either late in the Fisher-era or early in the Ellerbe era and I don't think he lasted.

There was another guy #34 from Texas that was a SF, maybe Brandon Smith?, that played here but I don't recall if he was a JuCo or not. I have to look that up.

Either way, it's been more than 10 years since we've had one.

A PG that's maybe more ready than a guy coming from H.S. that isn't highly rated might be a good stop-gap solution for either back-up minutes or a safety net from the worst case scenario.

[*JD*]

Ah, Brandon Smith was a recruit out of High School that transferred after his Junior year.

http://amarillo.com/stories/070800/spo_166-8335.shtml

[*JD*]

Hughes only played one year at Michigan. Here, he's taking on Mike Bibby.

[iam416]

I don't think Burke has any business going pro, but here's one thing that may push him there: he's great friends with Sullinger. And the Sullinger has clearly hurt his draft stock by returning -- probably by about 7-10 spots. And the fact is, the NBA doesn't really draft on actual hoops ability, but rather upside talent. Sullinger, I think has seen his upside come down a touch. Burke's upside isn't getting any higher. He is what he is. He'll become a better player over the next one or two or three years, but his upside is more or less fixed.

As I said, though, I think it'd be a huge mistake. I thought it was a mistake for Conley to go when he was so young -- and even though he was a top 5 pick. And he struggled for awhile. Burke would have a long, long road ahead of him if he went now, IMO.

[SeanB]

“From some of the information that’s been gathered… 90% of what we’ve gathered is he should be a first-round pick,” Benji said.

I'd bet my next paycheck this isn't coming from NBA talent evaluators, but as WM said, agents. That is a sad situation if so. Sounds like the Dad is getting sucked into the lifestyle promises more than his son might be. Just speculation on my part, though.

Sam Webb did a nice rundown of guards, at least 5-6 of them, who would probably be drafted before Burke, simply because they are 6'2'' or taller. I can't remember all their names, now, but it was a valid point, IMO. This draft may not be a "light" on PGs as the Burke family would like to think it is.

[Hannibal]

I don't think Burke has any business going pro, but here's one thing that may push him there: he's great friends with Sullinger. And the Sullinger has clearly hurt his draft stock by returning -- probably by about 7-10 spots. And the fact is, the NBA doesn't really draft on actual hoops ability, but rather upside talent. Sullinger, I think has seen his upside come down a touch. Burke's upside isn't getting any higher. He is what he is. He'll become a better player over the next one or two or three years, but his upside is more or less fixed.

If he has no upside, then he's got little choice but to stay, since he's not developed enough to make immediate contributions either.

[hack]

IMO there's upside -- he showed very little in terms of passing ability, and next year he should presumably find it easier to rack up assists, if he chooses to work on that part of his game, given the two frontcourt talents coming in. And getting deep in the tournament would display the obvious mojo that he's got, and ad the ``winner'' label, which is desirable in any player but particularly a PG.

JD nailed it -- right now he projects to be Travis Best, who was mostly a nice backup PG and who could come in and score a bit without turning the ball over, but creating wasn't a really big part of his game.

Another excellent point about his friendship with Sullinger. Hopefully Team Burke realizes that his situation may very well be different.

[iam416]

If he has no upside, then he's got little choice but to stay, since he's not developed enough to make immediate contributions either.

I'm not saying he has no upside. I'm saying his upside is largely set in terms of the NBA. NBA scouts have a pretty good idea of what he projects to as a player in 4 or 5 years and will draft accordingly.

He has tons of room to improve. But I don't think he has tons of room to improve his NBA projection.

[hack]

Definitely less. He can get a lot better as a player but that still wouldn't boost him into lotteryville. He'd have to have a very, very memorable Final Four run to do that.

[Da Geezer]

Trye Burke will never be "worth" more than he is now as a 2nd team All American. This is the kid that Motta didn't want. IF he gets a pro contract, he starts the 5 year clock running toward his free agency year which is the year when he actually gets paid. Think Amir Johnson, and the 7+million he got from Toronto after riding the bench in Detroit.

[iam416]

Definitely less. He can get a lot better as a player but that still wouldn't boost him into lotteryville. He'd have to have a very, very memorable Final Four run to do that.

Correct. And, let's be honest, his shots should go down if the frosh kids are good and Beilein figures out how to use them. He shouldn't score 15ppg on a balanced team -- not as a PG. His assists should go up. His turnovers should go down because he's being asked to try to conjure up end-of-possession points less. But his scoring should, TBH, decline a smidge. If...IF...the new kids are good and IF Beilein's offense is something other than running out the shot clock with high ball screens and chucking.

[hack]

Amir got 3/11 from Detroit, didn't he? You gotta go for the money if its there, but Amir's 6-10 and a pogo stick and maybe was going to have trouble with academics so came out after HS in the last year one could do that. He didn't really have a ``decision'' to make, and guys like him are exceptional. Teams pay for potential only when you're tall.

Trey is 5-11, so he's probably got to tie his decision a lot closer to whether he gets in the first round and gets the guaranteed 3 years of $1m+ that comes with that. Darius Morris is in the d-league now after getting a lot more first-round buzz than Burke has to date, and that should be shoved in Burke's face. If he's not a very solid first-round lock then it really is a mistake.

[hack]

IF Beilein's offense is something other than running out the shot clock with high ball screens and chucking.

wince/grimace.

[*JD*]

Trye Burke will never be "worth" more than he is now as a 2nd team All American. This is the kid that Motta didn't want. IF he gets a pro contract, he starts the 5 year clock running toward his free agency year which is the year when he actually gets paid. Think Amir Johnson, and the 7+million he got from Toronto after riding the bench in Detroit.

I disagree with that, in teams of his worth to an NBA team. Draymond Green was first team and still may not be a first round pick, although his tourney performance may finally get him in. College accomplishments don't always outweigh the physical attributes and projections. If Green were 6'8" and not the suspected 6'6", he'd probably be a top 10 pick.

I think Trey needs another year of production and maybe 10 more pounds of muscle to lock in first round status and a guaranteed contract. I think he can do that. I also think he could maintain his PPG while increasing his assists. I expect Michigan to average close to 10 more points a game.

[*JD*]

Coach Beilein went out to see Amedeo Della Valle for the first time on Thursday. LaValle Jordan had been the one handling his recruitment up to this point.

Here are quotes I pulled from umhoops.com

“It was good seeing [Beilein] in the stands for the scrimmage,” Della Valle said. “Then we talked afterwards, and he explained to me how the school is, how they play, how academically things are. Basically he told me there’s potential to just go in and play right away.”

Beilein explained the scholarship situation to Della Valle, letting him know that there is now certainly room to add a player like Della Valle. Della Valle mentioned that he was aware of the situation and that he heard about the transfers earlier this week.

While Beilein didn’t offer a scholarship on Thursday, he was pretty clear of his intentions.

“He said if you come for a visit, you could have a scholarship,” Della Valle said. “He doesn’t offer before a visit.”

Della Valle is scheduled to visit Arizona on April 13th and said he would like to visit Michigan shortly after that. The only other school where he has taken an official visit is Texas A&M.

While Della Valle still says he has five teams on his radar – Arizona, Texas A&M, Michigan, Gonzaga and Ohio State – he is “not sure” if he’ll visit Gonzaga or Ohio State. He is sure that he’d like to visit Ann Arbor.