Michigan @ Ohio State, Saturday, 11/26/2024, Noon EST, Fox/FOX Video

[Jeff Buchanan]

Things are way different in this classic match-up than they were in 2023. Roles reversed. According to FanDuel, Ohio State was listed as a -21.5 point favorite late yesterday after all NCAA FB games were completed. The total for the game was set at 44.5 points. The point spread was -23.5 when it first opened two days ago. Betting odds will update this afternoon but the last time I saw this figure, OSU had an 92% chance of winning when that sort of thing was calculated in late September - 3 games into the season. I'll post what it is 10 games in when I find it.

Hopium for an M win in C-Bus built though after M's offense came alive scoring 50 against the hapless Wildcat's on Saturday while the D played lights out holding NWU to 6 points on 2 FGs. That needs to be tempered. NWU's OL v. M's DL in their front 7 was a terrible mis-match for them. NWU QB Jack Lausch suffered 5 sacks and multiple hurries, threw one pick and M fans saw two other PBUs that were nearly picks.

Meanwhile OSU had Will Howard dealing going 22/26 and 201 yards against IU. He may be CRD's best player v. M as it isn't going to be OSU's rushing offense led by TreVeyon Henderson. He had 68 yards on 9 carries at a 7.6 ypc clip. OSU's total rush yardage v. a pretty good IU rush defense was 115 yards. Not your classic OSU run dominant offense of past seasons. OSU went tellingly only 4/11 on 3rd down conversions - not great, Bob. Also of note, OSU was flagged 8 times for 58 yards in penalties. Also telling.

Howard will be throwing to receivers that are elite, 1st round NFL draft players. Versus IU, the leader was Egbuka who had 7 catches and 80 yards. This is the biggest mismatch in units that favors OSU passing game over M's pass defense. M did a decent job containing IU's hi-powered offense but not quite as good as OSU's pass D did against them. M's back end D had growing pains through mid season but seems to have improved. In any event, it's a weakness against a talent laden OSU pass offense

This game is never easy to predict an outcome/score. That's because intangibles play such a very big part in that. Both teams are coming off impressive wins. Certainly their two opponents were miles apart in terms of threats to win - IU >>>>> NWU in that category. I think Talent would agree this isn't a great OSU team and probably over-ranked at #2 in the CFB Playoff rankings but they are probably good enough to beat Michigan that has struggled on offense all season. Davis Warren's stellar, best of the season performance behind an equally good OL performance v. NWU is likely a mirage. I do think OSU will win but won't cover.

OSU 31 - M 27

[lineygoblue]

I have no idea how Michigan will score 27 points against this osu team. Maybe if JJ was still playing, they'd have a chance to get there, but not with Davis Warren. osu would need a total breakdown of special teams, and/or a buttload of turnovers for that to happen. I just don't see that. Not with the motivation they have. I'm not sure that ohio players will be allowed to go home if they lose to Michigan again. Those people are nuts. Literally and figuratively.

I think Michigan's players will give a great effort, and play with a lot of pride. But they just don't have the horses to pull this off.

Michigan was one late 4th quarter TD away from upsetting Indiana. Ohio just beat Indiana by 23 points.

Ohio 52
M 9

M's kicking game does not suck.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Only Oregon scored more than 31 points v. M's defense. OSU isn't going to score 52 unless OSU gets 21 on turnovers/short fields.

Revise and resubmit.

[jacksonite22]

Bucks 31, Michigan 17. Michigan keeps it close for 2.5 quarters just like they did with Oregon but OSU's talent too much obviously.

[lineygoblue]

But remember, osu probably should have beaten Oregon. A bit smarter clock management, and I think they would have done it.

And I'll step forward a week and say that ohio beats Oregon in the B1G Championship game.

I see a lot of 3 and outs for M's offense, and the defense being on the field 35+ minutes of game time. Its asking a lot to keep that offense in check for that long. M will be playing a lot of substitutes in the defensive backfield. Howard is licking his chops.

Revised and resubmitted, but the conclusion is the same. ohio wins comfortably.

[THE_WIZARD_]

SHOCK AND AWE!!!

MY SHERRONA 27 3RD BASE 24

SHOCK THE WORLD!!!!!11111

[maxreturn]

I suspect we'll see a record number of blitz's from Knowles defense. Will Moore and Campbell be prepared?

[Cody_Russell]

The highly unlikely scenario where M wins…
The nearly perfect game vs NW isn’t a mirage and they actually improved over the bye week (just like Kansas football). M wins the turnover margin by plus 2 or 3. Wink calls his best game that is reminiscent of 2022 NY Giants. The M DLine abuses the OSU OLine due to having more 2025 NFL high draft pick players in that specific matchup for this game. Taking into account how OSU lost their two best OLinemen to the season. M offense finds much success in running the ball and Warren manages the game. Clutch Loveland catches. Chunk The Don and Mullings runs. M wins on a walk off Zvada kick 24-23. The internet would be hilariously entertaining to follow as Buckeyes fans would then have a complete meltdown because all of their eggs are in the Stalions CHEATIN’ basket. What excuse would there be next? Plus it would make the OSU playoff seed much more difficult and no B1G championship.

The more likely scenario where OSU rolls…
The game vs NW was a mirage. M offense is shutdown by an elite OSU defense. M defense gets some stops, but just like the Oregon game… it’s too much pressure due to the M offense returning to 2024 form. Warren throws a few ugly picks. Evan Link gets abused by whoever lines up against him. This just PROVES how M cheated in 2021-2023 according to the Eleven Warriors crowd. M’s 2024 decline has NOTHING to do with how the 2023 regime has found great success with the Chargers and losing just about every starter. OSU 34, M 13. Blah.

I think scenario 2 is more likely, but it would be so funny to see M randomly win. Go Blue! Again, I will be cleaning with the game as background noise. Not a big deal to me. 2023 champs!

[WM Wolverine]

34 - 13 sounds about right, maybe M's defense can slow the Buckeyes down if they are near full strength and hold the Buckeyes to FG's instead of TD's. Don't see any scenario where M's offense is competent enough to pull off the upset, maybe +2 turnovers and some special teams magic could spark Cody's above scenario and make it a one score game decided late. But that's very unlikely.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I too planned on having this traditional post Thanksgiving classic rivalry match-up"in the background." I'll be in Atlanta with Ann's daughter, her fiance' her Grandson Tyler, his wife and her family. It's a fun crowd. None of them are CFB fans. After watching M execute on both sides of the ball unrelated to the opponent about as well as they have executed all this season has made me want to tune in. The OL play showed marked improvement again opposition independent.

This is now a game where I'll try to do a deep dive into unit personnel match-ups. Sure, fans on both sides say you can throw all that sort of scouting away for rivalry games like this. Well, does anyone here think M's coaching staff doesn't get really analytical in scouting OSU? Preplanned and practiced OSU specific plays? And done this from Fall Practice and throughout each game week up to this point?

I have no doubt they have and so has OSU. This game in particular and generally across all CFB teams is about personnel match-ups and designing and implementing schemes/plays that exploit identified weaknesses in individual players, coaching trends, tendencies and schemes. Let's start with looking at OSU's OL The game v. IU featured the season's fifth different offensive line combination. All of these have been forced by injuries, highlighted by season-ending injuries to left tackle Josh Simmons against Oregon and center Seth McLaughlin at pre-game practice last week with an Achilles injury. The general consensus is that OSU's OL play was fine but I can't find any objective stats to support that conclusion. OSU threw more than it rushed based on the strength of IU's rushing D. My sense from watching the game tells me that Knowles blitzes a good deal with the % increasing on 3rd and long. I did find that OSU has the 2nd highest blitz rate among FBS teams. I could not find IU's and again my sense is that Cignetti got conservative with his blitzing and man coverage v. IU???? To me that's curious given the musical chairs CRD has had to deal with on the OL. Looked like Cignetti was playing to keep everything OSU came up with in front of the D and not give up the big play. In retrospect, if that was the plan, it contributed to the loss to OSU who exploited it.

I think M has an advantage when it deploys it's front 7 against OSU's OL. Wink has slowed down with his blitz rate but his defenses, generally, are characterized by a lot of blitzing. OSU's OL held up in pass-pro v. IU and since they were getting solid gains with the passing game greater than the run game that part of the game trended to be dominant (2:1 ratio pass/run). My view is that M/Martindale will start off with a 4 man rush featuring Graham and Grant inside. If OSU has success running or throwing against M's D configuration, Wink will dial up a higher blitz rate with 6 rushers and add in S and MSU transfer Zeke Berry. That's a higher risk, higher reward scheme for sure but it may pay-off given the success of OSU's passing offense v. IU that M needs to negate with pressure on the QB.

[klondike]

Donovan Edwards - another 200 yard game. Shock n awe

[Jeff Buchanan]

On yesterday's mgo podcast, the question was asked, "can M duplicate what they did against NWU at Ohio State?"

The answer: NO.

I'm not entirely sure about that. Although talent levels are vastly different between NWU and OSU, having players execute a play and be in the right place is somewhat opposition independent. I'm not saying M can score 50 or win The Game but there was notable improvement in offensive line play - a heretofore big weakness. Warren threw the ball extremely well. Mullings and Edwards looked the part. Sure, pass-pro held up for Warren via weak NWU pass rushers and the OL crushed NWU's outmanned DL in the run game. But IMO, the team, after it's second bye, looked pretty good compared to the previous two games both losses. Improvement in November is a good sign.

[iam416]

SHERRONE 34, CRD 17.

The ship has been righted.

[THE_WIZARD_]

SHOCK AND AWE!

[Mike]

I will be driving back from Chicago during the game and couldn't be happier about that circumstance. Hopefully it will be worth watching again by 2026.