Michigan 27, USC 24

[Jeff Buchanan]

The spread as of today has M as a 3.5 point dog. USC opened up as a 6.5 point favorite. Adjusted for the vigorish (at -2.5), USC has a 54.7% implied win rate. Sportsbooks line Michigan with a 45.3% implied probability to win the game.

I think we saw yesterday the final product that is M's team 144's offense and defense. The offense is un-fixably hindered by QB recruiting and management going back at least two consecutive classes. How the fuck did that happen? The defense is vulnerable. It's in the hands of DC who looks like a paternalistic mercy hire and has not yet figured out how to manage a CFB defense composed of 18-21 yo college football players. Team 144 is not a top 25 team and with a USC loss at home will drop out.

My early score prediction based on today's spread that has previously been all over the place:

USC 27, Michigan 24

[lineygoblue]

As of today, I see a very long day for Michigan's defense. They have some great players, but no McDonald or Minter. That is a case where the students are much better than the teacher. USC will run ball control offense, keeping Michigan's defense on the field for long stretches of time, and gassing them out before the end of the 3rd quarter. The long range weather forecast calls for 80 degree temps in Ann Arbor, which will make the on field temps over 90. USC and Los Angeles has had a very hot summer, and will be right at home in those conditions.

Quarterback: I believe it was last Tuesday where I saw a Moore interview where he said that "Tuttle is good to go", and yet when game day gets here, he's "questionable". So, which is it? Is he ready to go, or still injured? Or, .. is it something else. Is Tuttle on Moore's shit list? The most experienced QB on the roster hasn't even been given a sniff of playing time. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Meanwhile, I think Warren has played his way out of a job. Moore's best path for the remainder of '24 should be to develop the little bit of talent that is available, and coach up Orji and Davis. Davis Warren should only play in case of an emergency.

And I'm not disrespecting Warren. I highly respect anyone who can battle cancer and recover so well that he can play college football again. That is flat out amazing. But when the rubber hits the road, you've got to have a guy who can take care of the ball, hit open receivers, and lead the team. Warren fails to meet the grade in at least two of those.

At RB, I think we've got one hungry RB who wants to play, and another who is very good, but still fat and happy over last year. Mullings reminded me a bit of Hassan Haskins yesterday, and at times Edwards reminded me of BJ Askew. For those who need to be reminded, Askew was a big tough guy, who had good speed. But Askew got in the habit of going down at first contact. I don't think he broke one tackle in his final season. I see Edwards doing the same thing. Maybe he's too busy counting his NIL money. Even Ben Hall ran with more authority than Edwards yesterday.

As of this writing, I haven't heard how serious Loveland's injury is. Encouraging to me was that he was not wearing any kind of shoulder restraint when he came out of the tunnel. But I think I heard one report where he's supposed to have more tests today. We need the guy, if there's any hope of a bowl appearance.

Getting to Saturday's matchup, I'd get ready for another Texas game. Lincoln Riley and his boys have been yakking it up on how they intend to take the Big Ten "by storm", and this will be their chance to prove their point on a weak Michigan team in front of its own crowd. I don't see any reason why Michigan's season will change in a week. The defense is good, but there are problems. Michigan's offense keeps turning the ball over, and puts the defense in bad field position. USC has an explosive passing offense, and a stout defense. Michigan is in serious trouble and could get blown out once again. I see no hope of a Michigan upset. Tell me where I'm wrong.

USC 40
M 12

[THE_WIZARD_]

USC isn't better than Texas.

USC 27 M 16

[AlabamAlum]

O ye of little faith. M wins this (or at least covers).

[Jeff Buchanan]

Liney, you and I have similar takes on the aftermath of the Harbaugh resignation and, in week three going to four, how impactful that departure was on team 144. On offense the two negative impacts are the QB and OL situation. Was the staff that coached with Harbaugh asleep at the wheel of QB and OL recruiting? Was the program out-NIL'ed?

Whatever the cause(s), I'd ask has a National Championship team tanked in year one post winning it all more precipitously than Michigan? I don't have a clue as I'm not good with CFB history. The indicators that team 144 will end up winning 6 or even less games in 2024 are obvious. I'm truly disappointed in what has gone down over the last 9 months based on what we're seeing on the field. I've gone from exuberant joy to BPONE in that 9 month period. What's aggravating is the homer crowd of M fandome coming up with all kinds of excuses for the costly, in game mistakes the team is making. Reality should kick-in among those homers after M's loss to USC and that group will switch to calls to fire whoever 4 games into the 2023 season.

[Mike]

FFS, I don’t know what any of these oddsmakers are watching. USC by a million. It will look very much like the Texas game except Riley won’t take his foot off the gas.

My bold prediction: This is the last game Michigan goes into ranked with the current coaching staff.

[Mike]

Looks like Liney is the only other person on this thread who has watched the 2024 Michigan Wolverines this season. We’ve time warped back to 2014 but most people haven’t realized it yet.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Could be worse M fans...you could be Bama...

How'd I do AA?

[AlabamAlum]

Never put too much stock in early season great performances or early season flops. Texas caught you at the right time: new coach and new QB and a lot of distractions.

[Cody_Russell]

Kirk Campbell needs to see what the Packers are doing with Malik Willis today and learn how to call a game with Orji in there. A QB that hardly can pass the ball. M can be competitive if they embrace Mullings as RB #1 too. Turnover margin needs to be top of the mind as well.

Liney’s scenario reminds me of 2007 Oregon @ M. The season would truly be going downhill if that happens.

M 27
USC 23
Go Blue! Fork in the road-like game for the season.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...memories of Charles White and Rick Leach...John Robinson and Bo...

[lineygoblue]

I think Rick Leach.. TODAY .. at 67 years old, could throw better passes than any of the M QB's I've seen so far this season.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Liney....you were like only in your 50's then!

[lineygoblue]

shaddup or I'll whack you with my cane ...

[THE_WIZARD_]

My wheelchair can outrun you...