Michigan 28, Arkansas State 18

[Jeff Buchanan]

Moving on ....... please!

M 22.5 over Arkansas.

Analysts commenting on the worst loss to M delivered by another team in the Big House for as long as I can remember (anyone?) has me wondering about this team. GA Beat M in the 2021 CFB playoff in similar fashion so, there is that. They were out physicaled, out played and out-coached by Texas..... AT HOME. I think most of us had expectations for not a great season but not a season that has had such an embarrassing and ignominious start to a season. That season - the one facing M going forward, will include teams maybe just a step below Texas.

Iowa with upside started out to be a decent meme for this team. Iowa may be better than M overall despite it's loss on Saturday. Not a Jake Ruddock kind of team. That one was decent. John O'korn? Maybe.

The coaching staff cannot let Texas beat them twice and a loss to Arkansas State is probably in the cards if the team tanks. Stepping back from the ledge may be in order here but this is a mid-B10 team that risks finishing in the bottom 1/2 of the league and missing the CBP. I think M wins this one but won't cover and if the offense continues to look like it did v. Texas, it signals Kirk Campbell is out of his league and I'm not too sure about Sherrone either. The guy is likable ...... a lot like Brady Hoke.

[froot loops]

You guys lost a lot of great players. Some of the other powers bring in a lot of transfers to augment that, you guys really didn't do that to the extent you needed. In this era of the portal and NIL it's very hard to that many have great backups to step up so you don't lose a beat. But the good news is you won't face many Texas level teams

[Mike]

It's impossible to be overly pessimistic about this season. Arkansas St. and NW represent the only two auto-wins remaining on the schedule. Bowl eligibility is now the goal for 2024. If they come out and look like shit against USC in two weeks, the season will go into complete free fall.

[iam416]

The NCAA is going to save you from Sherrone. Unfortunately.

[Mike]

At this point, I'd welcome it. We're right back to 2014.

[iam416]

I know you would. He'll be the easiest sacrificial lamb in the history of sacrificial lambs.

[maxreturn]

We all knew that this would be rebuilding year but what confuses me is how a team that made the CFP each year for the last 3 years, recruits so poorly? I would expect that we would have better depth.

[Mike]

That's what's so disappointing. Everything needed for high level recruiting is in place, except good recruiters I guess.

At any rate, the Sherrone Moore coaching death clock has started. Might as well play Jadyn Davis and get him ready for next year.

[Jeff Buchanan]

There's a heap of post game criticism on the wires involving the coaching staff from top to bottom. One of the top criticisms addresses maxreturn's post above. You'll all recall, as I do, Hannibal's prescient posts on the failure of M's staff to recruit a top quarterback over the past three years. There are other positions that were poorly recruited including OTs.

There are also criticisms on player development, e.g., tackling, WR route running, Campbell's/Moore's offensive play calling and Wink's defense. These are systemic problems, not one game problems that can be easily corrected. If your staff isn't good, like many are saying the first two games demonstrate, Michigan football isn't going to look at all like a championship team ...... for a long time.

I've been convinced for a while that what happened in games #1 and #2 were aberrant outcomes not reflective of systemic problems. I was wrong. The game this weekend against ASt. isn't going to tell us much unless we're focused on seeing the details of good coaching and are clearly identifiable as corrections. There is a diary entry at Mgo by a prominent poster there, stephenrjking, who often provides balanced post game analysis when the peanut gallery is about to jump off the ledge. I think his analysis provides a basis to cause us to step back from the ledge. He identifies the same issues in this game that many others have highlighted signaling consistent views of what the major problems are. Worth a read.

I think it is still too early to predict disaster - like failing to get to 5 wins and thereby miss out on a post season bowl, not even sniffing the 12 team playoff. But it's much more a likelihood than most of us thought possible as we approached the start of the 2024 season. Either way, I'm not encouraged by what appears to be going on within M's football program. Things don't look good on several levels - the NCAA NOA included.

[froot loops]

You definitely are winning 8 at minimum.

[Mike]

We need 6 wins to make a bowl game meaning we need 5 more wins. There are 4 auto-losses remaining in USC, Washington, Oregon, and OSU. Arky St. and NW are wins. Whether we go 5-7 or 7-5 will depend on the games against Minnesota (should win at home), at Illinois, MSU, and at Indiana.

And this was supposed to be the "one more good year" before the wheels fall off from shitty recruiting over the past 3 years. IF Michigan manages to go 7-5, they're gonna lose 3 likely first round draft picks to the NFL (Graham, Johnson, Loveland) and will be replaced with far less talented players. That's not even counting Donovan Edwards, Josiah Stewart, Makari Paige, Mullings, probably Kenneth Grant. Not to mention we currently have the worst WR room I've ever seen in my 40 years of following Michigan football.

Reality has sunk in that you can't lose 10 starters on offense and replace 7 coaches and think you'll be fine because you have Will Johnson and Mason Graham on defense. That ain't gonna work. Plus I think it's safe to say the team simply isn't hungry anymore. The culture is more laid back with music playing during practice and the posh new digs at the football facility, etc. I think the guys with pro careers ahead of them are content with what they've accomplished and are riding out the year and the other guys just plain stink.

Last year was peak Harbaugh, this year is 2014 Hoke, next year will be Rich Rod year 1.

[lineygoblue]

[Mike]

Yeah, the cultists at MGo are straining their brains about Michigan's path the CFP. LOOOOOL

[lineygoblue]

Michigan will have to play better than they did on Saturday if they just want to get to 7-5. I don't see how they can get to 8 wins or more. There is no path to 8 wins.


Arky State - Should be a fairly easy win, but I wouldn't be shocked by a very ugly win. Davis Warren is not a good QB. John O'Korn Act II
USC - auto loss, .. maybe even worse than Texas
Minnesota - If Minny had a real coach instead of Bozo the Clown, they could win at Ann Arbor. At this point I think it could even get to coin flip status.
Washington - The Huskies have the guy who probably should be Michigan's coach. Jed Fisch will have the Huskies ready at home, and they have a bone to pick with M.
Illinois - I can't hardly stand Meathead, but his teams play tough. And this is in Champaign. I think the Illini win this one.
MSU - They went into Maryland and beat a good team. Their QB lit them up for 300 yards. Coin flip.
Oregon - Yeah... right. Auto win.
Indiana - Michigan may eek its way into a win here, but I'd not bet a lot of money on it.,
NW - Win, but only because its in Ann Arbor.
Ohio State - Automatic, walkover win. There is NO WAY that M will be competitive in this game. Should be a glorious day for ohioans .

==

So, of the remaining season, there are 3 games where Michigan should be the solid favorite (arky, Indiana, NW), and 2 others (Illinois, MSU) as a coin flip. That puts M at 6-6 and maybe at Ford Field in the post season.

I knew there would be a drop off, but the one nagging question I had during the off season was "are these really the 2 QB's that can lead this team?" Its a resounding no.

So I guess we can say that Harbaugh left the team the way he found it.

---

[lineygoblue]

Yeah, the cultists at MGo are straining their brains about Michigan's path the CFP. LOOOOOL

Its now apparent that the only way this team could be playoff eligible is if McCarthy would have stayed. Even at that, he'd be taking a horrible beating right now.

I didn't expect the dropoff to be this bad. I thought the defense could keep them in difficult games, and give the offense more chances, but it looks like I was too optimistic.