NC Game. M 34, W 13.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Good luck with that.

[Mike]

OK, Michigan fans. What's your confidence/fear level for tonight?

I fully expect a Michigan victory and I'm not afraid to say it. Michigan will control the LOS and when you do that you control the game. Play a clean game and Michigan wins. It will require multiple crucial mistakes for Washington to pull it out. Certainly not a sure thing but I don't see a scenario where Michigan plays well and loses.

[THE_WIZARD_]

[Cody_Russell]

Slightly confident. I have a couple fears, but ultimately think M is the better team. Ride Corum to victory.

My fears are:
- If M’s pass rush doesn’t get home. Washington supposedly has a MUCH better OLine than Bama. We’ll see what happens tonight…
- Wallace at CB.
- A slow start like vs Georgia or TCU. M can’t fall behind. Own the game script.
- Goofy turnovers or weird stuff that has happened in every Michigan playoff game.

Go Blue! Win the natty!

[Tom W]

I'm a bit worried that Penix will go crazy and hit deep balls repeatedly and that JJ will do stupid stuff. IOW, all of the stuff that gets payback for being able to beat ohio the last three years. Yes, it's a a karma thing. Also, it's a matter of setting low expectations to prevent disappointment.

In reality, though, there's little reason to expect Michigan to NOT play with the same intensity as they did for 3 quarters against 'Bama. If they play that way, and don't repeat ST mistakes, then they will do fine.

[Mike]

Texas is still a Big 12 school and had the #47 pass efficiency defense in the country. Michigan is #3. A perfect example of the difference could be seen on Washington's third offensive play in the Sugar Bowl. Penix dropped a dime to his WR about 35 yards downfield. Almost an impossible pass to defend. But then Texas' Keystone Cops secondary gives up 45 yards after the catch. See the play below at the 1:05 mark if it doesn't start playing there.

He should have been hammered OOB or brought down at the 30 for sure. Michigan will do that, Texas could not. I keep going back to the games against CJ Stroud. He played quite well and put up a lot of yards but Michigan beat him twice by 3 scores. Give up chunks between the 20s but stiffen in the red zone and we'll be fine.

I don't think I've seen a Michigan defender make a sorrier excuse for a tackle all year than what #28 from Texas did.

[Mike]

Going by passing yards allowed Texas was #113 out of 130 teams. Granted, that's not opponent adjusted but there's a lot of other teams in the Big 12 who gave up less through the air. Not saying Penix isn't very good but the amount of hype he's gotten from the Sugar Bowl is a little ridiculous.

[lineygoblue]

OK, Michigan fans. What's your confidence/fear level for tonight?

I fully expect a Michigan victory and I'm not afraid to say it. Michigan will control the LOS and when you do that you control the game. Play a clean game and Michigan wins. It will require multiple crucial mistakes for Washington to pull it out. Certainly not a sure thing but I don't see a scenario where Michigan plays well and loses.

If Michigan can establish the run with Corum/Edwards, its all over for the Huskies. Reference the Penn State game.

Everyone wants to focus on how great Penix is, but I'll mention that I don't think he's faced anything all year long like he's going to face with Michigan. Michigan's defensive front is absolutely elite. No ifs, ands or buts. Nobody they've faced is nearly as good as Michigan's defense. Washington got the OL of the year award that M got the last 2 years, but I'll argue they didn't face the level of competition that Michigan did when they won it.

Again, if Michigan establishes the run, its over for Washington. Guaran-fricking-teed. Penix can't throw a single pass when he's watching from the sideline. And if Michigan is scoring off long, time consuming drives, he's not going to get the chances that he needs to make the difference. All Michigan has to do in that case, is get him off the field in just a few of his posessions, or limit him to field goals. If that happens, Michigan will get the trophy.

Now, that doesn't mean that Washington can't win. They definitely can. If Michigan gets sloppy on offense, or special teams (again), that will open the door for Penix to make the difference. But the Huskies aren't going to grind their way to a win. They'll have to score on big plays, and those big plays will have to outnumber whatever Michigan is doing. Washington could make it nerve-wracking and close, but I still think overall, that Michigan is the more well-rounded team. If they can finish what they started at Penn State, and carried thru the Rose Bowl, .. they'll win this thing.

---

And then, Harbaugh will resign next week. But that's another thread.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Iffen Maryland and their OL with Baby Tua can make you sweat I'm pretty sure UDub & Penix will be fine liney...

[lineygoblue]

I'm sure they'll have a safe flight home.

And they'll get another shot at Michigan in September in Seattle.

I fully expect a competitive game all the way thru. Michigan's margin of victory with one exception (Iowa) over the last 5 games has been about 6 points.

M can win the close ones too.

[maxreturn]

If Michigan can establish the run with Corum/Edwards, its all over for the Huskies. Reference the Penn State game.

Everyone wants to focus on how great Penix is, but I'll mention that I don't think he's faced anything all year long like he's going to face with Michigan. Michigan's defensive front is absolutely elite. No ifs, ands or buts. Nobody they've faced is nearly as good as Michigan's defense. Washington got the OL of the year award that M got the last 2 years, but I'll argue they didn't face the level of competition that Michigan did when they won it.

Again, if Michigan establishes the run, its over for Washington. Guaran-fricking-teed. Penix can't throw a single pass when he's watching from the sideline. And if Michigan is scoring off long, time consuming drives, he's not going to get the chances that he needs to make the difference. All Michigan has to do in that case, is get him off the field in just a few of his posessions, or limit him to field goals. If that happens, Michigan will get the trophy.

Now, that doesn't mean that Washington can't win. They definitely can. If Michigan gets sloppy on offense, or special teams (again), that will open the door for Penix to make the difference. But the Huskies aren't going to grind their way to a win. They'll have to score on big plays, and those big plays will have to outnumber whatever Michigan is doing. Washington could make it nerve-wracking and close, but I still think overall, that Michigan is the more well-rounded team. If they can finish what they started at Penn State, and carried thru the Rose Bowl, .. they'll win this thing.

---

And then, Harbaugh will resign next week. But that's another thread.

Nice post! I started typing my take on things and realized you said basically the same thing. The Michigan defense is even better than I thought after watching them against Bama. With the talent UM has on defense and a Ravens style coordinator like Minter I simply cannot see this game devolve into a track meet. Michigan wins 31 - 24.

[Mike]

Iffen Maryland and their OL with Baby Tua can make you sweat I'm pretty sure UDub & Penix will be fine liney...

Everyone has a clunker every now and then. That game was also nearing blowout status late in the first half but McCarthy was, as his QB coach said, "extremely injured". That was his worst game of the year but avoided disaster.

[THE_WIZARD_]

excuses excuses

[Tslisher]

OK, Michigan fans. What's your confidence/fear level for tonight?

I fully expect a Michigan victory and I'm not afraid to say it. Michigan will control the LOS and when you do that you control the game. Play a clean game and Michigan wins. It will require multiple crucial mistakes for Washington to pull it out. Certainly not a sure thing but I don't see a scenario where Michigan plays well and loses.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this game. In simple terms, I see it as a draw on the Washington Offense vs. Michigan Defense. Yes, they have one of the most explosive, effective passing offenses in college football, and I think they will score some points. However, they haven't seen anything all season like our #1 (in SP+) defense. Texas was #11, Oregon was #16, every other opponent was below #25. As long as we can get a couple of stops, or force them to kick field goals rather than touchdowns, we should be ok.

On the flip side, the Michigan Offense (#12 SP+) way outclasses the Washington Defense (#44 SP+). I feel we should be able to run the ball with Corum, and JJ should be able to pass against this defense. We need to grind out the game and score touchdowns on our opportunities, but if we get up by more than one score, look for the Michigan Boa Constrictor to just squeeze them to death with the running game and milk out the clock.

Of course, stupid mistakes, or turnovers could easily result in a Washington win. We need to play a clean game. But if we do, I think Michigan can pull this out.

Michigan - 34
Washington - 23

[Hannibal]

I'm weirdly indifferent to tonight's game. 20 years ago I would have been over the moon.