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I've never been to this site. It appears in an mgoboard site where a poster, who is admittedly a data geek, did a comparative analysis of outcome predictions of multiple computer based predictive models. The first link below is to a display of all the computer models out there that predict CFB games. Click on any of them and you can see what their model is saying. The second link is to this data geek's post
TLDR: 71%-93% of computer algorithms predict a UM victory, with only a handful of computer algorithms clearly favoring UW. M, in round numbers, has a 75% chance of winning the natty v. Washington.
Disclaimer: I'm a stats nerd not a football expert or even a writer so apologies if you're coming here hoping for witty football commentary. My goal is just to provide the consensus opinion across the computer rankings using two helpful websites (Massey's composite ranking and the Prediction Tracker) to understand what various algorithms think about our chances next Monday.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
Now, here's the problem. Are the coaches and players seeing this stuff? Are they internalizing it in a way that might impact there attitudes going in? This game has the makings of the TCU disaster where it was pretty clear that M played as if the win over TCU was guaranteed. They didn't figure out that TCU was whipping them until it was too late. Coaches and players got burned.
Could be but not likely. This team has a different cultural feel. But, the thought of getting burned by a quick hitting Huskies offense and playing catch-up is still in the back of my mind.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
Congrats on CFP ttitle. This is basically a replay of OSU's very distant ttile. Beat a not truly great UAT team -- but still UAT -- and then beat an offensive P12 juggernaut w/ zero defense. This will be a total hamblasting.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
I like how Michigan matches up with UDub. We are built to stop a downfield passing game and we can get decent pressure with four rushers. It probably won't be a lot of fun watching them gain first downs between the 20s but I can see this game playing out a lot like our 2021 game against OSU -- but with less scoring on each side. And overall, I think that we have more talent. I'm thinking a 31-23 type affair, but maybe as high as 38-20. No guarantees though. A faceplant loss wouldn't shock me, but it certainly would disappoint.
Funny thing is, I think that 2021 and 2022 were better teams overall, but this year's team has an "it" factor that those teams didn't have. Chalk it up to huge amounts of senior leadership, experience and, finally, a winning culture. Boy is that ever a nice change. Let's hope that they don't revert to the Shea Patterson summer workout program any time soon.
If this were Georgia we were playing I would be looking at this one as house money, but being favored to win and facing a big dropoff in talent next year, we've still got a lot riding on this one. I don't expect us to ever be in this position again for the rest of my life. Monday night we have a chance for a big time bucket list item. Just winning one of these in my lifetime would be enough.
Two years ago we got super unlucky when Alabama beat Georgia. This year, we got lucky, it looks like. Georgia was clearly the best team, but they came up three points short against the wrong team on the wrong day. That'll be The One That Got Away for them for a long time.
Last edited by Hannibal; January 3, 2024, 08:41 AM.
2021 OSU to 2023 UW is a reasonable comparison.
This game is being played indoors though with no snow storm or alleged OSU flu situation () as differences. Who knows if 2021 OSU was truthful about the flu being a factor, but I can confirm that it destroyed Troy in a bowl game a few weeks ago.
It’s scary how confident I feel about the natty. M was built to beat OSU. It just seems like a bad matchup for the Huskies. As was Texas being a bad matchup in the Sugar Bowl because it was elite passing offense vs bad secondary.
The biggest factor is getting pressure on Penix. Make his day uncomfortable and it’s a win. That was the key to defeating Peyton Manning in his prime.
Atlanta Braves were the best team in MLB last year too!
Yeah, Georgia is interesting. I think Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, and their LT suffering an injury in game threw them off vs Bama. There was also a missed call on an Isaiah Bond catch that perhaps was a 10 point swing. Georgia also gifted Bama 3 points on a fumble.
Not to dismiss what Bama did because they played a good game vs Georgia.
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