NC Game. M 34, W 13.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Football fans are notorious morons that lack perspective or, well, a life. The worst are wrapped up in the teams they attach themselves to. They live vicariously through the successes and failures of their team. It's one thing to be a fan seeing football as an entertaining part of their lives. When their team becomes their life, its a problem.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I don't hate HARBAUGH*******it's actually more loathing...

[Jeff Buchanan]

From MLive Ann Arbor edition.

HOUSTON — Michigan will be without tackle Rayshaun Benny on Monday, leaving it down a defensive linemen for the national championship.

Benny, injured in the Wolverines’ Rose Bowl win over Alabama, has been ruled out for the game against No. 2 Washington

I remember seeing an M defensive player go down but I don't recall the down player being named at that time.

Minter has had the luxury of having great depth on the DL. This isn't great because Benny played in all M's games this season. Although not an impact player he was good enough to line up and spell Mason Graham and Kris Jenkins. Expect more reps from fifth-year tackle Cam Goode.

Nick Baumgardner writing for the Athletic did a piece today that explained what Washington had to do on offense and defense, same for M. There was noting startling in the pay-walled article. Just reinforces the current narrative. Washington needs to keep M off schedule and force 3rd and long. If they allow M to repeatedly drive the field and score, they'll lose. Washington's ability to do that is questionable - the eyeball, analysis and data back that up. M wants to force a low scoring fist fight on Washington. Washington will have to play fast, complete deep shots, force M into a shoot-out.

Michigan will rely on being able to manufacture long, time consuming drives keeping the Washington offense off the field. Versus the Huskies, the eyeball test, analysis and data supports they'll be able to do that. To what effect M is able to limit Penix when Washington has the ball depends on being able to successfully pressure him and on the M secondary's ability to limit catches by the receiver trio of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan. All three of them are big, fast and rangy able to make big catches even when well covered.

Baumgardner goes with the minority and picks M to win on the strength of M's proven ability to slow the game down, manufacture efficient drives and limit QBs it's faced at critical points in high leverage situations of the game. Penix is going to get his completions - M has to eliminate big plays deep; he can throw and complete passes underneath coverage all he wants. Just don't let him set his feet and throw long completions that end in TDs.

[THE_WIZARD_]

images (58).jpg

[WingsFan]

Mason Graham said he feels better with a lower-body injury, even making one of the best plays of the game in OT. You can clearly see he was limping in pain during the game and still was the defensive MVP. DL Benny is out. Jesus - the college football world is obsessed with Michigan and HARBAUGH!!! What a year lol

[Jeff Buchanan]

This was in my Google News Feed. The latest on AI powered stuff like this is that it has a tendency to be error prone. The predictions the models make are none the less interesting.

https://heavy.com/sports/michigan-wolverines/ai-predictions-michigan-washington-championship/

[Cody_Russell]

As long as Makari Paige is OK, I think we’re fine on the injury front. Losing DT #4 Benny isn’t ideal. Going to have to stretch the snap count of Graham, Grant, and Jenkins. Cam Goode as DT #5 is still great depth at the position if he gets playing time.

Not sure DT depth will be that needed vs this opponent. Especially when Dillon Johnson is banged up.

…

M wearing the big game blue pants in this game. So this will look identical to 2021 Washington at Michigan from a uniforms perspective. Back when crappy Jimmy Lake was their HC.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Was just in the car listening to FOX radio. The lead sports story is Harbaugh to the NFL per "sources." Also cited as an indicator JH has a new agent (and that is not new news!)

It is really too bad that the NC game - a big deal if you are among the millions of CFB fans - isn't going to be the focus of the game as it should be. Sure, there will be the usual play-by-play by Reese Davis and color by Herbie on ESPN but it sucks for the players and coaches that this is the headline for this game. There are so many wonderful stories that arise from the history of CFB and in particular M and Udub, the last of a conference match-up between the BIG and PAC. This is the last season of the 4 team, play-off format. Yet here we are talking about Harbaugh to the NFL.

After the last second ticks off the clock, M win or lose, the focus will be on Harbaugh. Shameful shit.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Alex Drain at mgo posted his regular FFFF Offense around noon. I just got done reading it. It's long, very detailed and revealing. I'll bulletize what I took from it:

• Penix played out of his mind v. Texas. The deep ball success he had in this particular game to his trio of mostly 1st and 2nd round NFL draft types was an outlier given his other games.
• Still it is the play calling of 2nd year HC Kalen DeBoer combined with Michael Penix's skill set that got the Huskies to this NC contest.
• DeBoer is a Mike Leach disciple = crafty and extremely aggressive play caller.
• Texas certainly tried to get pressure on Penix but it didn't happen and Penix dissected Texas' secondary. Penix is and was in this game incredibly accurate.
• Penix was much less accurate when he was infrequently pressured. M has better organic rush than Texas and way better edge rushers.
• When Penix isn't that accurate (some of the time) his trio of big time receivers bails him out.
• Washington RB Dillon Johnson is good but he's injured. He's also a terrific blocker that picked up most of the interior blitzes Texas ran. If he's limited that would help M's pressure metric. TBD.
• Already a known but important, Washington has a poor run defense and M can exploit this.

IMO, for M, this game comes down to Minter being able to scheme up and his players being able to execute in such a way that Penix's skill set is neutralized. It's almost a given that M is going to run the ball and run it effectively. The key to a victory is going to be M's ability to pressure Penix. It's that simple. Without Penix dropping dimes and scoring TDs on big plays, the Huskies don't match up well with M at all. Still, Penix and his receivers are the kind of players who can single handedly win a game for you. That has to be acknowledged.

M 38, Washington 28.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Just read the FFFF Defense piece.

Run the ball and keep doing it until the Huskies stop it. If Washington loads the box, punish that with play-action ..... over and over when they do that.

Michigan can win this game if they play it cleanly - no ST fuck-ups, no pre-snap penalties, no INTs or fumbles. M has done that pretty well throughout the season. Interestingly, Alex Drain who does these FFFF pieces and who studies and therefore knows a whole lot more about these two teams than I do predicts an M win 37-27 (se my pick above)

Bring the Natty home!

[Cody_Russell]

Exactly. I’m still feeling slightly optimistic about the game. ESPN coverage starts at 10am tomorrow.

The Vegas spread fluctuated a bit today. It was Washington -4 this morning. Now it’s gone back in Michigan’s favor to be M -5.5.

My local movie theater is also showing the game lol… actually a ton of people reserved a seat. Never seen that for a sports event.

[THE_WIZARD_]

images (58).jpg

[Mike]

MICHIGAN BY A BILLION.

[THE_WIZARD_]

"...that's a bold strategy let's see if it pays off Cotton...'

[WingsFan]

ACC referee crew for the game.