NC Game. M 34, W 13.

[Jeff Buchanan]

CFB National Championship Game is being played in Houston Texas at the NRG Stadium (home of the NFL Texans). Opening odds have M at -4.5. Today, January 2nd, following a gritty 27-20 OT win over Alabama, this is a can't and won't lose team - for now. As the week progresses and we get some good analysis, the outcome will become more easily predicted. Can not underestimate the Huskies. May the fiercest animal win.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Cheaters 27 Huskies 24

[Wellington_beefhouser]

Cheating all the way to the championship game. Hail.

[Cody_Russell]

It’s going to be a tough game.
Washington is resilient. Very unified team just like M. An elite passing unit. Michael Penix Jr. gives me Tua Tagovailoa vibes. Penix perhaps with a stronger arm and Tua is better/ quicker with the short reads. Three excellent WRs with Rome Odunze being a future top 10 draft pick. Their OLine is great. Smart play caller that luckily declined the Alabama OC opening. Washington has an elite passing offense that’s perhaps almost comparable to Stroud/ Haskins Ohio State passing offenses in recent years.
M can win because Washington should be one dimensional… especially with their RB most certainly out with an injury. M has a great pass defense that should make it tough on Washington’s offense. People love to compare the M defense to the Baltimore Ravens scheme. If I’m comparing Penix to Tua… you know who Tua struggled against? The Ravens. The Washington defense has some good players, but can be taken advantage of. Michigan’s offense will need to control the game and keep Washington’s offense on the sidelines.
M comes out focused and wins by two scores IMO. No more weird shit that we’re accustomed to with these playoff games.

Michigan 38
Washington 27
M -4.5

[THE_WIZARD_]

You better get pressure on Penix...that dude is for real....

[lineygoblue]

I think this game is built for M to play the same kind of game they've played all season long.

First, posess the ball on long time consuming scoring drives. Shorten the game, keep Penix on the bench as long as possible. Corum and Edwards have to get room to run. Without this, Michigan is in trouble. Relying solely on McCarthy's arm is going to be a problem. McCarthy could answer that bell, but I don't think its wise to get into a shoot-out with U Dub and Penix.

Second, when Penix is on the field, pressure, pressure, pressure. And Michigan may have the defense that can do that. They've been shuttling in 8-10 guys all season long on that defensive front, and keeping the pass rushers fresh will be key. They don't have to rely on the same 5-6 guys all game long. I noticed in last night's game, that Penix doesn't make a lot of quick throws. He likes to give time for his receivers to run their routes and go for bigger plays. That's why M has to get after him and at least make him uncomfortable.

This is no time to ask Colonel Sanders to change his recipe. Michigan has gotten to where it is by running a balanced offense with Corum making tough runs, and McCarthy sprinkling in drive-sustaining passes. Don't change now. Michigan can't become a run-and-shoot team or a 'fun and gun' team in 6 days. Go with what got you here.

I feel good about Michigan's chances. This team has answered the bell 14 times this season. I think they will here too.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Why would you ask Colonel Sanders to do that? Besides...I figured you were a Popeye's or Church's guy...

[lineygoblue]

Why would you ask Colonel Sanders to do that? Besides...I figured you were a Popeye's or Church's guy...

You're not real good with analogies, are you?

btw .. an 'analogy' means you compare something using a real life illustration ... in case you're wondering...

[THE_WIZARD_]

Am too. Just take an antibiotic and you'll be fine...

[Jeff Buchanan]

By the numbers (S&P+) Washington is a good match-up for M:

Measure	Rating	Offense	Defense	ST
Michigan	31.0	36.5 (12)	7.3 (1)	1.8 (7)
Washington	18.8	41.8 (4)	23.9 (44)	0.8 (47)

The S&P+ rating predicts a 12.2 point score differential in M's favor (31.0 - 18.8). Odds makers give M a 4.5 point score differential. While the top of the P12 is a point scoring juggernaut they also give up a lot of yards and points. Defense is not a strong suit for Washington (#44 nationally). Given M's balanced offense, it's ability to stay on schedule, sustain drives and score from the Red Zone, the game plan for Moore, as Linesman points out, is pretty clear.

Defending Penix is a different story. Analysts have compared him to "Tua" Tagovailoa who is now, or was before injury, playing for the Miami Dolphins. Penix is playing in his 5th year of eligibility, Milroe in his first. Big difference.

I thought Minter did a great job dealing with Milroe's skill set. For the most part Minter dealt a lot of pressure out of mostly C1, man. He chose the pressure of 5+ rushers instead of a spy or two. That worked (5 sacks) and there were plenty of pre-game analysts that said numbers v. UAT's OL was more important than giving those up to assigning spy roles in a read and react role. There will be a lot of game tape reviewed by the coaching staff but I think the pressure metric is key to limiting Penix's effectiveness.

So, I wonder what M's ST ranking would be for just one game, the one just played? Man, that was both ugly, fluky, uncharacteristic and completely unexpected. The kind of high variance events that will kill you. I think every bit of that is fixable in a week. I don't sense the players are cocky. I think they are determined and on a mission. I'm reading that the Huskies are also a tight nit group on a similar mission. If M plays an error free game like they are capable of doing, keeps UDub's offense and Penix on the bench, and forces three and outs when the Huskies are on offense, they'll be fine. They've already succeeded in playing that kind of game during conference play and in the same way that got them to the CFP. That would be long drives, stay on schedule, control the game and squeeze the life out of Washington in the 4th. If they do that, they'll be CFB National Champions.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Penix throws a great deep ball and rarely misses or makes a mistake...and he can run...but has been injury prone in the past so he's not going to run like Milroe. Their running game is not near where M's is but their OL is solid. Their D is pretty good but M will run on them. Expect an Over Under around 60-65. You don't wanna get in a track meet though. I'll say 31-28 M or something like that.

[Mike]

Michigan is participating in, and favored to win, the National Championship game.

I just wanted to type those words.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Michigan participating in, and cheated to win games, which assisted them in reaching the National Championship game.

I just wanted to type those words.

[lineygoblue]

Mike's words are better than yours

I just wanted to type those words.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Wiz, your comments are Stale. Get over it.