Michigan 27, Alabama 20, 1OT

[Mike]

Any time.

[WM Wolverine]

Harbaugh to the NFL always gets great ratings/views, don't expect it to stop.

[Da Geezer]

Through the last couple of days, I've come to respect Alabama fans. Very little pissing and moaning. Lots of congratulations. Good folks.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Yes...except a certain one that trolls these threads for THE_WIZARD_...

[Tom W]

Through the last couple of days, I've come to respect Alabama fans. Very little pissing and moaning. Lots of congratulations. Good folks.

I noticed that the last time we (well, Brady and Terrell) beat them in OT at the 2000 Orange Bowl.

Oddly, enough Nebraska fans are pretty respectable too- but with at least one exception.

[THE_WIZARD_]

hello

[Mike]

This one is for Liney.

Michigan’s win over Alabama and the death of the super team

https://theathletic.com/5175155/2024/01/03/michigan-alabama-recruiting-rankings/

It's paywalled but I'll post some of the pertinent parts. I shared the same opinion as the author and, therefore, did not believe Michigan could beat Alabama simply due to the talent disparity coupled with Alabama having the greatest CFB coach of all time.

Then a funny thing happened in Pasadena Monday evening...

Alabama was 3 yards away from extending a classic Rose Bowl to a second overtime and keeping its national title hopes alive, so Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees didn’t complicate it. Alabama had better players, and talent always wins out on this stage.

In a convert-or-die situation, Alabama put the ball in the hands of its blue-chip quarterback and ran him behind an ultra-talented offensive line. The simple play call would assuredly work because athletic freaks always trump lower-rated players who have developed well.

But as Jalen Milroe, a former top-100 player in the 247Sports Composite, grabbed a low snap and charged ahead behind an offensive line bookended by two former five-star tackles and two more blue-chippers on the interior, he got stoned at the line of scrimmage.

On the play, Alabama’s five-star right tackle, JC Latham, who will likely be a 2024 first-round NFL Draft pick, got pushed onto his back directly into the running lane by Josaiah Stewart, a former three-star prospect who transferred to Michigan after beginning his career at Coastal Carolina.

The 2023 Alabama team boasts the second-most talented roster — on paper — in the modern recruiting era (dating back to 2002). The average scholarship player on this team was a top-100 recruit coming out of high school. That is an absurd statistic. Even if half of the signees didn’t pan out, Alabama would still have 40-ish players who lived up to their recruiting hype and would be among the best players at their position in the country. That’s basically an entire two-deep. It’s unfathomable how many good players are on this team.

Michigan, meanwhile, ranks No. 14 in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite and has 16 fewer five-star prospects on its roster than Alabama. That doesn’t even account for how much more highly rated Alabama’s four-stars are than Michigan’s.

The result? Michigan, a senior-laden team, beat the crap out of the Crimson Tide. Sure, there were moments when it felt as though Alabama was going to win in the second half, but anyone who watched that game saw the Wolverines physically impose their will on Alabama, all the way to the final play.

There have been only three teams since 2000 that have won national titles without having signed a top-five class in any of the previous four years — 2010 Auburn, 2016 Clemson and 2018 Clemson. The quarterbacks for those teams were Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, and all of those teams signed at least one top-10 class in the previous four years.

With a win on Monday, Michigan can now become the fourth.

[lineygoblue]

You're treading on dangerous ground, Mike.

I tried making that same argument back in the early part of this season, and nearly got railroaded out of here.

I even believe that 2003 Michigan had enough talent to win a NC. I was laughed at to scorn.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I laugh at you just in general...

[Hannibal]

This one is for Liney.

Michigan’s win over Alabama and the death of the super team

https://theathletic.com/5175155/2024/01/03/michigan-alabama-recruiting-rankings/

It's paywalled but I'll post some of the pertinent parts. I shared the same opinion as the author and, therefore, did not believe Michigan could beat Alabama simply due to the talent disparity coupled with Alabama having the greatest CFB coach of all time.

Then a funny thing happened in Pasadena Monday evening...

[/B]

That seems like a bit of an overreaction to me. It's just one time UM beating 'Bama.

[THE_WIZARD_]

BLASPHEMY!!! THE EVIL EMPIRE HAS BEEN DEFEATED...THE DRAGON HAS BEEN SLAYED...THE GREAT AND POWERFUL HARBAUGH******* HAS SPOKEN!!! PAY NO ATTENTION TO THAT MAN ON THE SIDELINES AND IN THE STANDS WITH THE VIDEO EQUIPMENT!!!!

[Mike]

If you read the full article, he makes a good argument. It isn't that Michigan will have long term success with their model. They won't. Nor will most any other school that uses the "identify program guys and develop them for 3-5 years" approach.

For the entire College Football Playoff era — dating back to the 2014 season — the four-team field has been dominated by super teams that have consistently destroyed their peers on this stage, year after year, game after game, title after title. Until Michigan on Monday.

There are two types of teams we find on this stage. First, the super teams built like Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia, the types of programs that have recruited so well over the previous four or five cycles that they have future draft picks sitting on the bench. They often have double-digit five-star prospects and enough top-100 players on top of that to have a huge margin of error in recruiting hits and misses.

The second type is the “developmental teams,” the ones that recruit pretty well and do a tremendous job of evaluating and finding good fits. These teams are very good, but their overall roster strength pales in comparison to that of the super teams.

The super teams always, always, always beat the developmental teams at the end of the year.

Well, Michigan just proved it’s not always.

This is a pretty eye-popping stat that speaks to having so many 4/5 year players.

A lot of this is experience, too. Michigan features a senior-laden team that came into the game with 3,000 more cumulative snaps from its two-deep than Alabama. Experience accounts for a lot.

Conclusion:

Super teams will still be more likely to sustain year-over-year success than teams like Michigan, which is going to lose a large portion of its production after the season. The Wolverines won’t be able to play the “next man up” game the same way Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State will. High school recruiting is always going to be the backbone for top-notch programs that expect to win a national title every year regardless of roster and/or staff attrition.

But in the right year with the right circumstances? Michigan — and teams built like it — can win the national title in today’s college football.

I wouldn’t have said that a year ago or even six months ago. Today, I am.

Hannibal, to your point, this may indeed be a premature take. I think the extra Covid year plus grad transfer rule and the newness of the transfer portal have made 2023 Michigan and Washington possible. The expanded playoff will also probably help stanch the inevitable march of the same "super teams" playing for the championship every year simply because the margin of error decreases considerably when you need to play 3 or 4 consecutive games against really good competition.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well like that's just like your opinion man...

[Jeff Buchanan]

BLASPHEMY!!! THE EVIL EMPIRE HAS BEEN DEFEATED...THE DRAGON HAS BEEN SLAYED...THE GREAT AND POWERFUL HARBAUGH******* HAS SPOKEN!!! PAY NO ATTENTION TO THAT MAN ON THE SIDELINES AND IN THE STANDS WITH THE VIDEO EQUIPMENT!!!!

This is actually funny. Now close your pie-hole.

[THE_WIZARD_]

no