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The Shithole Cheaters with Numbers on their Helmets were pretty bad for the first half the year. The Dirty Fucking Cheaters were destroying everything for their first 9 games. I'd reckon the fancystats for the 2nd half of the season would show something a little different.
It's a pretty even game.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
UAT's best will win. There's no doubt about that in my mind. But they've been pretty inconsistent whereas M is just solid and consistent. If UAT is average they'll lose.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
Stats analysis between teams with uncommon opponents is inherently flawed. That can’t be the stand alone. Generally, I look at depth and efficacy of the lines in controlling the LOS and impact skill players, specifically QB, (lockdown) CB, WR1, WR2, and RB1.
That approach has netted me nearly $38 net gambling winnings from CFB wagers over the last 2.9 years. I would be +$123 but Auburn covering vs UGA fucked me.
With a good bowl season I hope to use my net winnings for a dinner at Longhorn’s or Olive Garden.
Don’t be jealous. Just respect the playa.
"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln
So, what do the fancy stats mean. First, advanced stats can be useful but are not predictive enough to hang your hat on. One ranking that pertains is SOS:
1
Ohio St (11-1)
13.4
2
Alabama (12-1)
13.2
3
LSU (9-3)
12.3
4
Michigan (13-0)
11.5
Not that far apart but Alabama, by this metric, had the more difficult road to the CFP. It's just another stat in the evaluation by objective data hopper. This, from bronxblue's "Best and Worst" series on Iowa is to me a big deal in evaluating who's going to have an edge in this game:
One of the comments Brian made on an early podcast was that when an otherwise-good offense struggles (so not Iowa) it’s usually because one guy made a mistake and that’s enough to submarine the play. If there’s been one consistent negative for this offense this year compared to past seasons, especially as it relates to the running game and its lack of explosiveness, it’s that those one-mistake plays are far more frequent than in the past. At times it has been with home-run threats like Donovan Edwards missing a lane or Blake Corum not quite being able to beat a guy to the edge. Other times it’s been Michigan’s unwillingness to consistently throw play-action passes and McCarthy sometimes missing open guys when they are deployed. But by far the most consistent source of these busted plays has been blocking,
Against Iowa, I'd add the normally sure handed TE's dropping critical throws that were accurate. The TEs are key elements of M's offense. That cannot happen if M hopes to win this game.
No secret that M's OL has not been the 2022 version of itself. Injuries, yes ...... but it's pretty clear Nugent at C is <<<< Olu. Musical chairs at the tackle and guard positions are highly problematic. I feel pretty confident that the coaching staff knows the O-Line is a big problem and are designing game plans that try to hide that problem. The net result IMO is a tentative passing game and a less than innovative running game that stresses no opponent's defense, especially not Alabama's.
Observers/sports - writers keep saying that Sherrone Moore is holding stuff back. I rarely believe that talk or, I'll believe it when I actually see a surprise and the flea-flicker, reverse, double pass and Orji cat are definitely not that. Any of these used at the right time and executed well, maybe, but see above on the subject of execution and missed blocks.
Somebody is going to have access to PFF grades for M's OL and DL versus Alabama's. I don't have access but I think it could be important as how the two lines play is going to be a big factor in the outcome. Critical to M having an edge here is how the coaching staff shores up known OL problems and installs plays that mitigate weaknesses and advantages strengths. QB play is another factor. A healthy McCarthy is > Melroe. Saban is > Harbaugh in optimizing QB skill sets. A wash? Also important and impossible to measure objectively is which team wants the win more. I liked AA's take on 2023 Alabama's cohesiveness. They're going to need it to overcome the most together and motivated M football team I've see, recency bias notwithstanding.
As data points fill in over the next 3 weeks, I think predictions become more accurate. I'll wait.
Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; December 4, 2023, 01:16 PM.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
Jeff, that list is a great example of why I don't put much stock into fancy stats.
Oh, I'm totally down with that. In isolation they are suggestive but not strongly predictive. Context and intangibles, not always measurable, are always at play. Here's an intangible that worries me. Harbaugh's bowl and CFP record. Maybe history isn't a player but, man, M has looked like shit in the last two CFP ..... and "shit" covers a lot of ground here and I think all of us know what ground that is.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
I was just going to ask in what world did Michigan play the 4th toughest schedule in the country? We played 2 strong opponents in 13 games. Granted, we dispatched them both with relative ease, never trailing for a single second in either contest. Now if we had to compete against OSU in Dance Dance Revolution, we'd get smoked. Those are some excellent dancing sons of bitches.
No one remembers that we were leading early in the 4th quarter before Milroe threw an INT that gifted Texas a TD. After that, other than the Niblack TD reception/2ptC, we had no other first downs or scores in that quarter.
So, we started the 4th with a 16-13 lead and lost the 4th by a score of 21-8. All of that was due to Milroe being rattled. He was shook after that INT. His inexperience was glaring.
Alabama is the youngest team in the SEC and has a 1st year QB starter replacing Bryce. His inexperience cost us that game. He’s much better now, but he still isn’t a great passer. He makes up for that by being a gifted runner, though. He at least mitigates his average passing game to the point that it’s not a huge negative.
Our D gives up some yardage, but they will hit you viciously hard and generally play smart, aggressive, physical ball. Most opposing QBs get pretty gimpy against us and several have been sidelined. Dallas Turner, our star LB, has kind of an Ivan Drago “If he dies, he dies” philosophy and he’s not that concerned with getting a roughing flag if he can get in a bone-jarring tackle. Even if you beat us, beating Wash/Tex the week after will be harder because you will have players who will be too banged up to go.
Our PK is the best in the sport and holds the college record for career points scored. Punter is good, returners are fine.
The wildcard is our youth and if you can rattle Milroe. You do and you win by 14. You don’t and you’ll be talking about next year or how the refs screwed you by not calling X.
"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln
I was just going to ask in what world did Michigan play the 4th toughest schedule in the country? We played 2 strong opponents in 13 games. Granted, we dispatched them both with relative ease, never trailing for a single second in either contest. Now if we had to compete against OSU in Dance Dance Revolution, we'd get smoked. Those are some excellent dancing sons of bitches.
Mike, I don't think the 1-4 in the left column is the absolute SOS. I think it is the order of relative SOS among representative teams. The important comparison is between M and Alabama. I should have noted that. TBF, I don't know how the calculations in the right column were made. There are about a bozillion ways to calculate SOS across all sports.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
Being in the top quartile of SOS is fine. M is just outside of that, but it’s close enough to not get worked up over. FSU is 55th and that hurt them, no doubt. SOS can be too high in that represents a risk with no real reward. Alabama might be the exception to that. I guess we were rewarded and FSU was dinged which gave us the 4th CFP spot.
"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln
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