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Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan
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I share the sentiment here that a Saban coached UAT, even if it's not his most talented team, esp. on offense, isn't going to go down to Michigan. I'm supportive of objectifying performance as long as there's a counterbalancing eyeball tests from those that have watched Alabama play. Up thread I posted unit PFF grades. IMO, that's the most reasonable, objective statistical measure of the two team's performances. It's really close and just using PFF, impossible to pick a winner,
As for eye-ball tests, I watched every M game and spent a lot of time digesting post game reviews at mgo. Through October M looked the part of a national championship contender. From what I gather from responsible Alabama observers is that Alabama didn't and even though they finished the season with wins, this isn't a typical NC year for Saban's team. I did spend some time with mgo reviews of both Alabama's offense and defense and also watched all the video that was part of those reviews. Alabama has some exploitable weaknesses, the most prominent the interior OL.
The problem with M for me is that once M got into November's schedule, first, JJ didn't look the same as he did through October and, TBH, neither Corum or especially Edwards rose to the level of execution that they did in 2022. Add to that M's receivers, including TEs playing in that role, aren't going to get drafted early or more likely at all. Finally, this season's OL was OK with Zinter at RG, completely exploitable without him and the musical chairs Moore had to play to put something together after Zinter went down is a work in progress - and it's late.. Bottom line is that M's run game isn't going to be dominant, like it needs to be in this game, against Bama's D. JJ is going to get pressure from Dallas Turner (the Jack in Bama's D) getting by M's LT Henderson. This will happen even when Bama plays a "light box" which is a feature of Saban's D allowing for better pass D and 3 or 4 man rushes. So, JJ will be battling pressure and NFL level coverage in pass D. That's not a good environment for him to be in.
All of this adds up to an Alabama win. With an M run game that lacks explosive plays and JJ operating in less than ideal circumstances for his passing game, I don't see any way, M can pull this one out based on both objective and eye-ball analysis. Harbaugh was able to squeeze the life out of the better teams they faced in Maryland, PSU and OSU to close out wins. Alabama's offense, even with it's warts, is better than any of the teams that Harbaugh was able to constrict their offenses late and hold on for wins. I'll close with this summary from mgo's Alex Drain:
The biggest objective for Michigan's offense in this game is staying on schedule/ahead of the sticks. With that in mind, running the ball effectively is the key to the game. Michigan is going to need its interior OL to win their matchups with the Alabama defensive tackles, which feels doable, but also be tricky enough from a schematic standpoint to stop Alabama's LBs/safeties from keying in on the run and holding those runs where you get traction up front to only ~3 yards. Thus, JJ McCarthy has to be a central part of the designed run game. I think they should be prepared to dial up as many as ten running plays for McCarthy, be it reads, QB draws, or QB power sort of stuff. Michigan is going to need to do what Georgia did in sticking more to short stuff, particularly on standard downs. Those quick hitches/comebacks routes against Terrion Arnold seems like something Michigan could use, but this feels like another TEs game. Additionally, this feels like a good Donovan Edwards game. I'm less excited about the prospect of screens because of 'Bama's athleticism in space, but a few well-designed/well-crafted screens have the potential to grind out some yards too. Angle routes and wheels seem more fruitful. Finally, if Michigan gets into obvious passing downs, the scrambling ability of JJ McCarthy has to be ready to play a role in keeping Michigan's offense alive. He's going to need to save them on some occasions to keep the ball rolling and pick-up free yards when the protection isn't there, because other QBs have shown that is another weakness of Alabama. Michigan has a mobile QB and should take advantage of that M's receivers might not be as good as Georgia's but Auburn's plan of "all QB run" moved the ball at 5.7 YPC. There are ways to move the ball against Alabama... standing in the pocket and taking your chances against that secondary and those edge rushers is not one of them.
As for eye-ball tests, I watched every M game and spent a lot of time digesting post game reviews at mgo. Through October M looked the part of a national championship contender. From what I gather from responsible Alabama observers is that Alabama didn't and even though they finished the season with wins, this isn't a typical NC year for Saban's team. I did spend some time with mgo reviews of both Alabama's offense and defense and also watched all the video that was part of those reviews. Alabama has some exploitable weaknesses, the most prominent the interior OL.
The problem with M for me is that once M got into November's schedule, first, JJ didn't look the same as he did through October and, TBH, neither Corum or especially Edwards rose to the level of execution that they did in 2022. Add to that M's receivers, including TEs playing in that role, aren't going to get drafted early or more likely at all. Finally, this season's OL was OK with Zinter at RG, completely exploitable without him and the musical chairs Moore had to play to put something together after Zinter went down is a work in progress - and it's late.. Bottom line is that M's run game isn't going to be dominant, like it needs to be in this game, against Bama's D. JJ is going to get pressure from Dallas Turner (the Jack in Bama's D) getting by M's LT Henderson. This will happen even when Bama plays a "light box" which is a feature of Saban's D allowing for better pass D and 3 or 4 man rushes. So, JJ will be battling pressure and NFL level coverage in pass D. That's not a good environment for him to be in.
All of this adds up to an Alabama win. With an M run game that lacks explosive plays and JJ operating in less than ideal circumstances for his passing game, I don't see any way, M can pull this one out based on both objective and eye-ball analysis. Harbaugh was able to squeeze the life out of the better teams they faced in Maryland, PSU and OSU to close out wins. Alabama's offense, even with it's warts, is better than any of the teams that Harbaugh was able to constrict their offenses late and hold on for wins. I'll close with this summary from mgo's Alex Drain:
The biggest objective for Michigan's offense in this game is staying on schedule/ahead of the sticks. With that in mind, running the ball effectively is the key to the game. Michigan is going to need its interior OL to win their matchups with the Alabama defensive tackles, which feels doable, but also be tricky enough from a schematic standpoint to stop Alabama's LBs/safeties from keying in on the run and holding those runs where you get traction up front to only ~3 yards. Thus, JJ McCarthy has to be a central part of the designed run game. I think they should be prepared to dial up as many as ten running plays for McCarthy, be it reads, QB draws, or QB power sort of stuff. Michigan is going to need to do what Georgia did in sticking more to short stuff, particularly on standard downs. Those quick hitches/comebacks routes against Terrion Arnold seems like something Michigan could use, but this feels like another TEs game. Additionally, this feels like a good Donovan Edwards game. I'm less excited about the prospect of screens because of 'Bama's athleticism in space, but a few well-designed/well-crafted screens have the potential to grind out some yards too. Angle routes and wheels seem more fruitful. Finally, if Michigan gets into obvious passing downs, the scrambling ability of JJ McCarthy has to be ready to play a role in keeping Michigan's offense alive. He's going to need to save them on some occasions to keep the ball rolling and pick-up free yards when the protection isn't there, because other QBs have shown that is another weakness of Alabama. Michigan has a mobile QB and should take advantage of that M's receivers might not be as good as Georgia's but Auburn's plan of "all QB run" moved the ball at 5.7 YPC. There are ways to move the ball against Alabama... standing in the pocket and taking your chances against that secondary and those edge rushers is not one of them.
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