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Sports writers are giving the rivalry impact too much credit. As well, the NWS is now forecasting a dry Saturday evening, game time temps in the mid 40s winds 12 mph. That's a change from a 40% chance of showers. But, and as usual, the NWS says, "this could change." ..... this is SE MI.
I'll review this post and make appropriate changes after I see mgo's takes on the game, esp. LB and S play. Here are my thoughts as of now:
If MSU has got anything in it's bag of offensive plays just for M, they'll be out of those by the end of the first quarter/M will figure them out. Sparty will revert to it's #86 offense (S&P+). M is #9. Sparty's defense is decent (S&P+ #26, M is #3) but I'm going to make a bold prediction: M will punish it.
If Sparty defends M like everyone else has, the effectiveness against what I suspect will be Moore's run game focus with judicious use of PA, rests on MSU's LB play and secondarily the S spot. These positions have to be gap sound v. M's tendency to "Duo" the tackles and spread out the inside gaps (A & B). Last Saturday, IU was good at this, deftly picking the gap that Corum or Edwards tried to fit into. M responded with their revised version of the stretch play (see mgo's Neck Sharpies article). Good night IU. The same thing is likely to happen to MSU. Add in McCarthy's arm and legs and that McCarthy burned IU several times with the PA pass to wide open receivers v. the IU defense jumping their S's into the box, MSU is not going to stop M's offense. There will be gnashing of teeth for M fans early but the result of the game will never be in doubt. M will dictate how the game unfolds.
38 - 13 M
Exactly matching S&P+ predicted win margin of 25 points. Caveats apply: (1) Even though it works for me in this analysis, S&P+ does not reliably predict score differentials so, there is that. (2) The rivalry factor in the game plays more heavily than I think it will.
I'll review this post and make appropriate changes after I see mgo's takes on the game, esp. LB and S play. Here are my thoughts as of now:
If MSU has got anything in it's bag of offensive plays just for M, they'll be out of those by the end of the first quarter/M will figure them out. Sparty will revert to it's #86 offense (S&P+). M is #9. Sparty's defense is decent (S&P+ #26, M is #3) but I'm going to make a bold prediction: M will punish it.
If Sparty defends M like everyone else has, the effectiveness against what I suspect will be Moore's run game focus with judicious use of PA, rests on MSU's LB play and secondarily the S spot. These positions have to be gap sound v. M's tendency to "Duo" the tackles and spread out the inside gaps (A & B). Last Saturday, IU was good at this, deftly picking the gap that Corum or Edwards tried to fit into. M responded with their revised version of the stretch play (see mgo's Neck Sharpies article). Good night IU. The same thing is likely to happen to MSU. Add in McCarthy's arm and legs and that McCarthy burned IU several times with the PA pass to wide open receivers v. the IU defense jumping their S's into the box, MSU is not going to stop M's offense. There will be gnashing of teeth for M fans early but the result of the game will never be in doubt. M will dictate how the game unfolds.
38 - 13 M
Exactly matching S&P+ predicted win margin of 25 points. Caveats apply: (1) Even though it works for me in this analysis, S&P+ does not reliably predict score differentials so, there is that. (2) The rivalry factor in the game plays more heavily than I think it will.
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