Michigan 52, Minnesota 10

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've watched some highlights of the Gopher's games this season. Fleck has tried to restore their dominant rushing offense using an offensive philosophy (smash mouth football) and a beefy OL. I don't have access to PFF but I know Fleck hasn't recruited an OL that can open lanes that were a signature capability of previous Minnesota rushing offenses. Actually, the Gopher's rank ahead of M in rushing offense (10ths of points) at around 197 ypg (Airforce is #1 and rushes over 300 ypg). That's becasue of Darious Taylor who did not play on Saturday due to injury. Status for the M game is unknown. M is ranked 8th in the notoriously flawed ESPN FPI; Minnesota is 49th but it gives a reasonable relative strength comparison of the two teams.

You can't just look at that number and assess the OL's effectiveness. While M's passing offense is middling (69th), Minnesota's is awful (121). The place where the two teams are different is in rush defense. M's rushing D allows 80 ypg while Minnesota gives up 115. In their game this weekend, M shut out the national leader in rushing, Nebraska, (caveat competition) holding that tricky rush offense to 58 total yards before a 79 yard run in the 4th v. M's 3s pumped up the true rushing game narrative for Nebraska - they got stuffed when it counted.

Minnesota let a big 3rd quarter lead dissolve v. NfW and lost in OT in week 4. They regrouped on Saturday and beat Louisiana but not before being behind at the half. The bad news is that Minnesota was out nationally leading rusher, Darious Taylor due to injury the week before. Gopher QB Athan Kaliakmanis is a 60+% passer that runs. He had a great game v. Louisiana on Saturday both running and passing (85%) but it was not a dominant Gopher performance against a G5 conference team.

A little early for a prediction. Michigan opens as a 17.5-point favorite against the Golden Gophers, with the over/under currently set at 44.5.

[lineygoblue]

I'm going to put on my industrial strength dong punch protector, and say Michigan wins this one 34-10.

The defense is humming along, and except for a few garbage time and missed assignment TD's, they've been strong all season long. I don't think the Goofers will be able to have their way with that defense. Offensively, Michigan continues to run a well balanced scheme, being dangerous both with the run and the pass. How do the Goofers shut that down? I don't know either.

I think Minny, Indiana, MSU and Purdue are all headed for M's win column without a lot of fuss. November is when it gets nasty.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!!!!!! 42 boat boy? 6

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm going to put on my industrial strength dong punch protector, and say Michigan wins this one 34-10.

Ahhh, another converted doubter. I share your guarded optimism. It will be interesting to follow analysis of Fleck's OL and DL this week. I can see results but no in depth analysis of those two critical units of a football team yet. If Darious Taylor is out, the Gopher's have a serious lack of talent at the skill positions. A reflection of that is their low points per game (24) coupled with what their defense give's up to opponents (22).

Any decent fancy stat is now behind a pay-wall. Things like isoPPP - plays with various gains from 10+ yards on up or big plays/explosiveness - would very likely reveal a low isoPPP for Minnesota. Same for FPI and S&P which each have an efficiency component. M's efficiency is going to be higher than Minny's, probably a lot higher; isoPPP for M would not be much higher than the Gopher's, M's constrained by the way Harbaugh usually plans for and plays the game of football. Minny's restricted by talent.

I pretty much gave up following fancy stats as it turned out to produce a 50/50, flip of the coin for CFB game outcome predictions. No way I'll pay for that. But there is still some useful predictive stats out there worth looking at that aren't behind a pay-wall. Based on yesterday's performance that is more a reflection of a positive trend in M's football program rather than an outlier, I even think the current opening spread (17.5) might be a little low if M repeats the quality of their game in Lincoln when they play PJ Fleck's Row the Boat team in Minneapolis.

[WingsFan]

Safe to say team is much more crisper with the leader HARBAUGH!! Back.

[lineygoblue]

Safe to say team is much more crisper with the leader HARBAUGH!! Back.

This has been kind of a punch line in the recent past, but there's a lot of truth in this as well. He doesn't get enough credit for this, but the guy can coach, and he has built solid football programs everywhere he's went. Michigan has now joined that list. Some NFL team is going to try and get him this off season, and it remains to be seen if he'll go or not. A lot depends on what stupidity the NCAA comes up with to 'punish' him for Hamburger-gate.

This year will be his best shot at a NCAA championship. It'd be nice to bring that to A2.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Right now M looks like the best team in the country...but hard to say until you play PSU or possibly Merry-Land. UGA looks vulnerable...USC's defense is garbage...Texas looks solid but not quite on M's level...FSU should have lost to Clempson and struggled with BC. Washington looks dynamic on offense...they will be a tough out...Oregon same thing.

Right now my Top 4:

1. M
2. UGA
3. Texass
4. UDub

Lotta football left.

[lineygoblue]

Michigan and Georgia (IMO) are closer this year than they've ever been. And Georgia is vulnerable. They can be had. OSU for the lack of a kicker, had them beat last year.

We'll find out a lot about Texas this weekend. Okie seems to have their number.

U Dub and Oregon will meet somewhere along the way.

And OSU is still a great team, and if CRD is any indication, they're motivated.

Hopefully both M and OSU will clobber PSU.

[Hannibal]

Minny is our bitch and they have been so for some time. They have only two wins against us in the past 37 years -- We have beaten them by 50+ points more often than that in that time frame. Michigan's combined record in the years they got those two wins is 12-12. Even RichRod punked them.

I won't worry about this game until the Goophers prove that they can beat a decent Michigan team. They haven't done that since the infamous Ricky Foggie game of 1986. Don't expect a repeat this weekend. I see that the spread is 18.5 points. It will be a short game with few posessions, but I'd still lay the points.

[Mike]

Minnesota needed a miracle to beat Nebraska at home 13-10 and LOST to Northwestern. This will be an absolute bloodbath.

[Hannibal]

I guess that the bettors are expecting a 7 possession game for us to only be favored by 18.5 points.

[Mike]

Could be but I still expect a route. The team seems to be hitting on all cylinders.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Row the Boat is not good.

[Jeff Buchanan]

In my opening post for this game.......

I even think the current opening spread (17.5) might be a little low if M repeats the quality of their game in Lincoln when they play PJ Fleck's Row the Boat team in Minneapolis.

After nearly a full week of analysis of Minnesota's football team, the spread is not only "a little bit low" it is, IMO, way low. I get M's python approach to opponents and 7 possessions, scoring on maybe 5 of them, fits that characterization. But Minnesota is not good - on either side of the ball. On offense, RB Darius Taylor, who is good, is believed to be out for Saturday night's contest. He has been THE Minnesota offense. The Gopher QB is below average, their other RBs are just guys and with a shaky OL, the run game is averaging just over 2 ypc. Whoa. Their defense is also made up of just guys and no play-makers or notable pass rush. Minnesota has yet to face an opponent with a passing attack the likes of M's.-

I don't feel sorry for PJ Fleck at all because it's fun to rub someone's face in it when their enthusiasm for a game carries over to the sidelines in the form of stupid cheer leading that should be reserved for the kids that actually do that and are good at it.

M 49, Minny 10 (and that many points scored by the Goofer may be a stretch).

[THE_WIZARD_]

It's always a good day to watch Fleck get "Boatraced"...