Michigan 45, TCU 51 Post Game Thread

[Jeff Buchanan]

You wouldn't know that from the hype ESPN reporters are putting out there. It's garbage. Take care of business and "win with character and cruelty."

It's a shame that Blake Corum can't suit up and play. He'd be showcasing why he should have been the Heisman Trophy winner.

[lineygoblue]

TCU is going to use quick passing to get away from Michigan's pass rush, and when they decide to run the ball, they'll attack the edges with quick openers. Illinois had a lot of success with the edge rushing and quick passes. They took Michigan into the late 4th before losing. Dykes will use the same game plan.

Defensively, TCU does not have brawn, but they have speed. They recover from blocks and get off blocks as well as any team in the CFP. I doubt that Michigan will break off any long runs. Dykes said he's going to force McNamara to beat them, and I think what he intends to do is use a spy linebacker in passing situations, but he will try to disguise that. He'll pick situations to blitz, and I think that blitz will mostly come up the middle, the same way most NFL teams come after Tom Brady. McNamara is no Tom Brady. I love the kid, but lets be real.

I still expect a very close game, but overall, I think Michigan's offense can wear the Frogs down, and the defense will eventually get to TCU's QB. TCU hasn't played anyone like Michigan this year. There's nobody in the Big 12 that compares.

No score prediction, but I think it gets into the 4th before its fully decided.

It's a shame that Blake Corum can't suit up and play. He'd be showcasing why he should have been the Heisman Trophy winner.

Totally agree. Edwards has been excellent, but Corum is better. Its a shame he can't play. I hope he comes back.

[iam416]

Current CFP Futures (odds to win it all) with implied odds in parens:

Georgia -145 (59%)
Michigan +300 (25%)
Ohio State +350 (22%)
TCU +1800 (5%)

There is roughly a 10% overage because that's the juice. The odds are slightly adjusted to account for the juice, so teams have slightly better chances of winning per odds than the Vegas models.

In short, TCU is fucking awful.

[iam416]

What's also interesting to me is that the Ohio State-Georgia line has held at 6.5 to 7 despite a fair amount of Georgia action (68%) while the TCU line has DROPPED -- inexplicably -- from 9 to 7.5 with mostly even betting. That's straight cash in my pocket both ways.

[Cody_Russell]

Pretty sure M was favored by 9.5 at one point. The lines have held firm of late. Georgia -6.5 and M -7.5.

I would like to see how TCU competes before saying they’re the worst CFP team ever. Probably the most unexpected and least talented from a 247 composite average ranking view. Interestingly, ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranked all 36 CFP teams and had 2015 MSU as the worst.

[Mike]

He's not wrong.

[iam416]

Michigan State was a ton like last year's M team and the 2016 Ohio State team. I'm not sure which one of those 3 was worse. Sparty ended up losing worse, but was only down 10-0 at half, even though it might as well been 200-0. Ohio State was pretty much throttled by Clemson from the get-go. HARBAUGH!!!! was obliterated by Georgia in the first half, then Kriby iced the game and HARBAUGH!!! salvaged some pride with a garbage time TD.\

All 3 of those games were absolute mismatches and absolute mismatches in the same fundamental way -- an offense that had almost zero chance of scoring meaningful points against an outstanding defense. But, the M-Georgia game was the one that was over almost instantly. The other two were a little more slow-moving in the obliteration.

[iam416]

Unrelated, I guess, but this is the 3rd time the Fiesta Bowl has hosted a CFP game and it will be first time it's not Clemson-Ohio State. Fuck Clemson.

[lineygoblue]

In short, TCU is fucking awful.

The bettors think they are awful.

The game is played on the field. I suspect they will play better than the bettORS think they will.

Bettors had OSU beating Michigan by at least 9.

[iam416]

It's not bettors, it's Vegas oddsmakers. And, no shit, the game is played on the field. Upsets happen. Duh.

Last year after Alabama HOUSED Georgia, Vegas oddsmakers set the odds for Alabama-Georgia rematch as GEORGIA -3 because, well, they still thought Georgia was better.

TCU might upset M. There's certainly a "chance". And if that happened and they played the next week I'd still bet on M because I think M is waaaaay better than a pretty average TCU team.

[Cody_Russell]

Yup. Agree.

The other team that came to mind is 2016 Washington. However, they’re very similar to 2021 Cincinnati. Dominated a weak conference… lower margin of defeat to Alabama in the CFP, but the game really never felt competitive.

There’s also that weird 2014 Florida State team. Defending champs led by Jameis Winston. Everyone was convinced that they were frauds leading up into the game. All of their close wins. Blown out vs Oregon in the CFP.

We shall see about TCU. I can see the scenario where M destroys them like Penn State. Still leaning towards the idea of a competitive game.

[iam416]

Yup. Agree.

The other team that came to mind is 2016 Washington. However, they’re very similar to 2021 Cincinnati. Dominated a weak conference… lower margin of defeat to Alabama in the CFP, but the game really never felt competitive.

There’s also that weird 2014 Florida State team. Defending champs led by Jameis Winston. Everyone was convinced that they were frauds leading up into the game. All of their close wins. Blown out vs Oregon in the CFP.

We shall see about TCU. I can see the scenario where M destroys them like Penn State. Still leaning towards the idea of a competitive game.

I actually probably underrated Washington and UC slightly. I mean, the games were never in doubt, but I thought they'd get absolutely dominated everywhere. As it turns out, it was mostly just on offense. You really can't handle an elite or even very good SEC defense without absolute ballers on the outside. Can't be done (IMO). And Washington and UC had zero chance of doing it, though they played more competitively on defense than I thought. Perhaps that was just The Nick knowing the only way he could lose was being like -6 in turnovers, so he just iced the game from kickoff. I dunno.

The Florida State team was bad. They'd be right up there with Washington, UC, Sparty,2020 ND, 2019 OU and TCU.

[Mike]

You all forget to mention 2019 Oklahoma who gave up SEVEN TD PASSES in the FIRST HALF against LSU.

What's a bit surprising to me about the first 8 years of the CFP is that there have been so many blowouts in the semis. The only two good semifinal games (off the top of my head) were the OU-UGA OT game in the Rose Bowl and the Clemson - OSU Fiesta Bowl. I think the average MOV in the semifinal games is over 20 points which is crazy considering you have top four matchups.

EDIT: Just saw that Talent mentioned OU. I forgot about the fraudulent ND teams. Lot of shitball squads in the semis.

[iam416]

OSU-UAT was a legit semifinal, too.

[iam416]

But, to your larger point, the problem is mostly that the SEC (and Clemson) were just way better. And that's not going to change when we got to 12. It's going to end up with most years being at least 2 SEC teams in the final four and some years where there are 3.

And while I think 2019 OU was bad, lemme tell ya, that LSU team would have dropped at least 56 on 2021 HARBAUGH!!!!, 2022 HARBAUGH!!!! and just about any other M team ever. I mean, Burrown, CEH, Chase and Jefferson. JESUS. FUCKING. CHRIST. Ain't no team in CFB history dealing with them boys. No one. So, yeah 2019 OU was bad and they were bad on defense and that bad defense was drawn against what is probably the best offense of all-time (2020 UAT -- those boys were straight up hellacious, too).