Michigan 45, TCU 51 Post Game Thread

[crashcourse]

buchanens shortest post ever and you still tell him stfu

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[Jeff Buchanan]

[THE_WIZARD_]

THE GREAT AND POWERFUL THE_WIZARD_ HAS SPOKEN!!!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

That's not the part of the video I was talking about ....... the part that fits THE_WIZARD_ has the Scarecrow calling the Wizard behind the curtain a "humbug" and Dorothy calling him a "terrible man."

Get right with the Wizard of Oz dumbass.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I'm in yer melon...that's all I take from that...

JB:

take these broken wings and learn to fly again

[lineygoblue]

something in the way she moves

[THE_WIZARD_]

makin' love outa nuthin' at all

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is a remarkably complete statistical analysis of TCU v. M. The author is right up front "that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics." But I like his predicted outcome.

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/tcu-projections

The author admits that the analysis includes all of Corum's stats that fit into the author's overall statistical analysis. Can Edwards replace Corum's run game? I doubt it but he could be close. One of the upsides of Corum's season ending injury was that the offensive brain trust was forced to lean more on JJ McCarthy. He delivered. He's likely going to have to do that again in the Fiesta Bowl.

I don't know if this makes TCU's job coming up with a defensive plan harder without Corum but with JJ dealing. The impact of Corum's/M's run game during the season had a huge effect on osu's scheme and it was awful even with Edwards in a cast on his left hand. He was still making big plays mostly because of how knowles deployed osu's D that sold out to stop M's run game. So much for that.

Dykes has already been quoted as saying TCU will try to stop M's run game and make JJ try to win it. Fine. Do that.

M 43 - TCU 17

[iam416]

Buchanan is finally coming around to how meh TCU is.

[lineygoblue]

Dykes has already been quoted as saying TCU will try to stop M's run game and make JJ try to win it. Fine. Do that.

I think thats a deflection on Dykes part.

I believe we'll see a similar strategy as was deployed by Illinois. They'll pressure JJ. A lot.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I mean, it's CFB, shit happens, and "that's why they play the game, blah, blah .......but the analysis this guy did is solid. When you're running numbers like this statistician has done it tends to clarify, or expose, a team's weakness relative to an opponent. It's hard data, not feelings ball.

Something that stood out to me was that analyzing rushing plays, yards/play for both M and TCU, the analysis tells us that TCU will have a hard time getting M off the field, M will not have a hard time getting TCU off the field. Another analysis related to this is that M scores more TDs per possession than TCU does. Therefore, M will have more possessions and score relatively more TDs while M's D has an easier time of getting TCU off the field and limiting their scoring and possessions.

What tends to blow analysis like this up is high variance events or a high leverage situation play gets made because it does (how did he do that?). Those trash the mean of analysed categories of data. A statistician can mitigate these with clever tricks like finding standard deviations and then creating a range of outcomes. An outcomes power or probability can also be incorporated. This guy does both.

Still, turnovers, injuries, bad calls by the refs at critical points in the game, etc., can still blow up the analysis. The less those happen, the more likely the outcome (range of outcomes) this guy's analysis predicts will be accurate.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Won't be close.

[AlabamAlum]

42-17. TCU scores twice in garbage time.

[iam416]

About right. TCU is probably the worse CFP team ever.