Michigan 45, TCU 51 Post Game Thread

[Jeff Buchanan]

Obviously Vegas disagrees...

(with the majority of rational M fans here)

I could go back and line up THE_WIZARD'S copious reidiculous HARBAUGH!!!!!! predictions that got tossed in the dust heap of WRONG to demonstrate they are a good bit short of coin toss odds of being accurate.

This one - a "blowout" win for M v. TCU - will join them.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I lifted this from mgoboard posted late last (actually early this morning). Tip of the hat to the blowhards. OK, M will win (we know that) by a score closer to what the blowhards are pitching but not by much more than the Lou Holts hand wringer crowd here are saying it will be (two scores).

Did a little research for our upcoming CFP opponent

TCU

Total Offense: #21

Passing Offense: #40

Yards Per Completion: #23

Rushing Offense:#19

Yards Per Rush Attempt: #15

Total Defense:#72

Running Defense: #66

Yards per Rush Attempt: #62

Passing Defense: #79

Completion % Def: #10

Opponent Yards per Completion: #88

TCU has played 3 Top 50 Defenses (K State 2x, Texas and then Iowa State)

According to their average offense, they underperformed in the Texas and Iowa State games despite the scores. They were well under their average output. They did about avg vs K State #50 in total offense.

Despite scoring 62 points (due to Iowa State mistakes), the has 100 yards less in total offense than average. Iowa State is the best defense they faced at #4 in total defense.

TCU has faced one top 50 passing defense. This is also Iowa State (#6) they threw for 212 yards well below their average of 273

TCU has faced two Top 50 Rushing Defenses, they had 115 and 131 yards in each game for an average of 4.4 Yards per Carry. They normally average 200 Rushing yards and 5.3 YPC

The TCU defense has faced 8 top 50 offenses (9 if you count K State twice). In 3 of those games they held the team to below their average output. In 4 of them they held them to around their average output and in two of the games they allowed offenses to exceed their average output. They are allowing 400 total yards of offenses on average to Top 50 offenses. If you exclude the Texas game (which is an anomaly) they allow 425 yards of offense.

So their defense is not great to say the least, but here is where it really falls off:

TCU has faced 6 Top 50 rushing offenses. In those games against running backs (I excluded WR and QB runs), they have allowed 4.75 Y/C, 5.42 Y/C, 6.35 Y/C, 2.42 Y/C, 5.82 Y/C, 8 Y/C. Horrible numbers if you exclude the Texas game. On average they are allowing 5.46 Y/C vs Top 50 rushing teams. Over 6 yards per carry if you exclude the Texas game. Also a note, they allowed 7.96 Y/C to Iowa State, Iowa State is the #117th worst rushing offense in the nation. None of these B12 teams have an O-line like Michigan has imo. Im not really sure why they had success against Texas and Bijan Robinson but they have not played anywhere near that level this year. There might have been an O-line injury or Bijan wasn't 100% but it is important to note that it did happen.

They have some playmakers

On offense, they have 6 Top 100 rated guys (per position) on PFF and 2 Top 100 rated guys on offense. Their highest rated player on PFF is their TE Jared Wiley.

Offensive playmakers in the Top 100 on offense: QB Max Duggan, HB Kendre Miller, TE Jared Wiley, Center Alan Ali, Guard Steve Avila. Quentin Johnson the WR is the #119 best WR on a down to down basis on PFF

On Defense, they have DB Josh Newton and Safety Milard Bradford. Sneaking outside of the top 100 is DB Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson. Outside of those 3 positions, most of the their defense if in the 250-450 range according to PFF. One of the poorest D-lines in CFB and the LB's are not great either.

For reference Michigan has 14 players in the top 100 and (5 more right outside of it within the 250 range)

The PFF Average Talent Level (PFF average for all starters) for TCU is 218 as a team, 161 on offense and 275 of defense (the lower the number the better).

For Michigan the PFF Average talent level is 137 for the team, 161 on offense and 111 on defense. (Remember the lower the number the better)

As far as PFF, Michigan is very similar on offense, less talented WR, but more talented in the O-line department. But on Defense there is a huge difference. Michigan at 111 means on average their starters are closer to the top 100 and TCU starters are closer to the top 300 range.

The line at -9 seems about right, as SP+ as around the same number. Their Sp+ rating of 24.5 puts them ahead of the 2021 Michigan teams CFP SP+ was 23.4. 2022 Michigan would be a 10 point favorite over 2021 Michigan.

[THE_WIZARD_]

sandbaggus dipshittus

[lineygoblue]

Its not sandbagging, even by the rules established by opposing fans here, to say that the game will be close.

The official line is 9 points. I don't think that qualifies as a blowout, which so many here seem to be think it will be.

[THE_WIZARD_]

sandbaggus twatwafflus

[Dr. Strangelove]

moronicus gigantus

[lineygoblue]

Seconded

[THE_WIZARD_]

secondus

[Jeff Buchanan]

Shutupicus

[klondike]

At this point close doesn't matter. I don't care if we win by one. Just win.

[lineygoblue]

One point wins count the same as 40 point blowouts.

Ask OSU and MSU. None of them give up any M wins due to low scoring.

[Cody_Russell]

M 27
TCU 24
Give me TCU +9.5.

TCU comes across as that classic “play up to good opponent, play down to bad opponent team.” Excluding the recent Iowa State game for TCU.
I think this game could be similar to Maryland vs M early in the year when it comes to style. Shades of Purdue vs M too.
Max Duggan will give it all to give his team a chance. Tough QB that legit should be in the conversation for the Heisman. Though Caleb Williams probably wins it. Ultimately, it’s the safer bet to say M comes out on top given their talent advantage and the results of this season.

Call me crazy, but both CFP games will be popcorn entertainment this season.

[iam416]

Well, have they played a good opponent, yet?

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well TCU and M did have similar OoC schedules...

[Mike]

Well, have they played a good opponent, yet?

TCU or Michigan?