BTCCG Michigan 43. Purdue 22

[maxreturn]

Sorry.

STFU

Ah....that's more like it.

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[Dr. Strangelove]

Did you go to Indy back in 2012, Wiz?

[THE_WIZARD_]

Fuck no.

[Mike]

That was the smart play. Me? I went last year and I’m going Saturday. This could be habit forming.

[Cody_Russell]

One sneaky factor in this game: Purdue recently lost their OLine anchor in C Gus Hartwig. Sure, Purdue can hide that injury loss vs IU. I think it will factor into Mazi Smith and the interior M DLine performing very well. Adds onto my belief that M comfortably wins this game.

Do you remember The Alamo? Bowl? 2005?

That game was horseshit. Damn stupid refs from that 2005 season Alamo Bowl.

[THE_WIZARD_]

WWCAW...Alamo Style!

fuckin' refs

[lineygoblue]

I wish I could go but I can't handle upwards of $160 per ticket.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Cheapskate

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've spent some spare time today looking for ways that Purdue can realistically beat Michigan. There aren't many.
:
(1) Jeff Brohm outcoaches Jesse Minter. Brohm is a good coach. His record at Purdue however is pedestrian - in 69 games as HC at Purdue, he's 36/33 (.522). He was very good with Western Kentucky. There he was 30/10 (.705) before getting hired by Purdue.

• Purdue is a basketball on grass, spread passing team that has developed a semblance of a run game this season. This is Jeff Brohm's style of play on offense. At times, usually when they are not in control of the game, Purdue's offense has been pretty much one-dimensional. Devin Mockobee has played in all 11 games this season. When they are winning, he gets a lot of run and is averaging over 5.1 ypc in that circumstance. When Purdue is losing, Brohm turns to the passing game. Mockobee is pretty much not a dude. But Purdue threatens a fair, if not belwo average run game that has to be respected. As I see it, Purdue has to outscheme Minter and beat M's D.
• To do that, in the passing game, Purdue's OL has to limit Mazi Smith's and and Mike Morris' pash rush and the pressure they (among others - surprise! ) will bring. They aren't elite pass rushers and Purdue's offensive tackles are just guys. Purdue is playing a freshman center, Josh Kaltenberger. He's reportedly sound along with guard play on both sides. If there's a stalemate at the LOS wrt the pass rush that could give O'Donnell and his receivers time to do something.
• It is worth noting that Minter brings pressure from multiple positions on the field. Brohm has to prepare O'Connell to be ready for that and get the offense into the right plays. No coach appears to have done that very well. crd was a massive fail in that regard with Heisman candidate cj stroud - maybe Bielema got Divito ready - he had a good game v. M.
• On the backend, M's DBs excelled v. osu receivers They've also demonstrated that they can be beat. In Minter's favor is that Purdue's passing attack, which is good overall, appears to have just one stand-out O'Donnell target, Charlie Jones. He has a lot catches, over 1100 yards and 12 TDs but him and all the other receivers tallied collectively are averaging well under 10 ypr. That shows you Purdue's offense in a nut shell. Brohm has a talent for innovative concepts and identifying an opponent's weaknesses. When he does that successfully and, in game controls the flow, Purdue wins. But, a short passing game designed to foil pressure and move the chains has to face great underneath coverage that M has excelled at, especially when it counts..

(2) Somewhat related Brohm having to outcoach Minter on offense to win is winning on D. Opponents playing M have have allowed them to drive the field repeatedly with a grinding run game. osu threw in the kitchen sink to try to stop it, playing a hi-risk-hi reward scheme that ended up giving up too many big plays. The risk was not rewarded. If Purdue plans on winning in Indy, they need to get the Michigan offense off the field on 3rd downs. Michigan has an efficient running game that frequently sets them up for 3rd and short where Weiss/Moore can dial up whatever they want from the playbook. Purdue has to minimize biting on 3rd and short PAs or RO plays. Letting McCarthy get away with this is a recipe for disaster, ask crd. From what I gathered today, Purdue has demonstrated they can be burned by that and it's happened a lot at terrible times costing them an almost victory over PSU. Getting M off the field on 3rd down comes down to this:

• Pressure. DE's Jenkins and Karlatis, are boarder-line dudes, Karlatis > Jenkins. Brohm's DC, hello, is Ron English. He's a solid play caller and was at M in relief of Jim Hermann. He also is aggressive with both run and pass blitzing in the right set of down and distance circumstances. e.g., inside the 10, he'll throw in a zero blitz. Outside the 20, not as aggressive. From what I've reviewed, English is a C2, press man guy and that coverage predominates. He'll go to C-1 and bring a S into the box to get numbers but he is not as hi-risk crazy as Jim Knowles was v. M's offense.
• Execution. Assuming the OC and DC call in a good play on hi-leverage situations such as a 3rd and goal at the 8, it's a matter of execution. Who has the advantage here? I think I know. If English throws in a C-zero blitz at any place on the field to gain a stop or turnover, there's a good chance M will execute their play-call against the blitz better than Purdue will execute the zero blitz.
• Beyond that nuts and bolts, if Purdue can find a way to stuff M's run game minus Corum (osu did it but at great cost) and keep Michigan in obvious passing downs, Purdue might be able to keep it close into the 4th. Typically that's 3rd and 6 or more. Michigan has the 91st rated passing offense averaging 214.6 ypg. Their third and long conversion rate though is decent at 46%. M also has the nations' 2nd best Net Drive Efficiency (NDE) behind #1 UGA. Of course M plays preferentially what I call hybrid man-ball and they rank 5th in rushing ypg at 244.5. Michigan has that decent 3rd down conversion rate largely because their run game with Corum healthy gets to 3rd and short a lot. I doubt Corum will play so, there is that.
• v. osu and with Corum on the sideline, Stokes was getting a mere 2.5 ypc while Edwards was getting huge chunk plays. Take three long runs by Edwards out (thank you Kim Knowles) and the collective ypc was under 3.5 - that's not going to be a run game that can get M to 3rd and short every possession and allow JH to control the gamer flow like he likes to do. The Boilers rank decently in preventing 3rd down conversions at 19th nationally, at an opponent conversion rate of 31.5%. Another stalemate? Well, for that to occur, they'll have to hold up against M's RO runs from McCarthy. Those plays helped to overcome the Corum absence. TBD. NB, Purdue's NDE ranks 40th.

(3) Anymore? Nope. IMO, there aren't any more realistic ways for Purdue to beat M head to head given the game being played inside and assuming the game is called competently and fairly both ways by the officials. There could be high variance events that favor Purdue or M. You know what these are. Even then, I just don't see M losing this one to Purdue. Mike said that best in another post:

https://www.detroitlionsforum.com/forums/forum/sports-discussion-forums/university-of-michigan/1815137-michigan-45-osu-23?p=1817869#post1817869

M 38 - Purdue 17.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Just stop.

[Cody_Russell]

FYI George Karlaftis doesn’t play on Purdue anymore. He’s in the NFL.
His younger brother, Yanni Karlaftis, is a backup.

Jeff Brohm is 3-0 against top 3 ranked teams. Knocked off Ohio State in 2018, Iowa in 2021, and Michigan State in 2021. Explaining the Spoilermakers nickname. However, fair to call Purdue “Pur-don’t” when they lose.
It won’t matter vs M as this game most certainly isn’t close in the 4th IMHO.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Thanks for the update. Who then are the two starting offensive tackles?

[Cody_Russell]

LT - Mahamane Moussa
RT - Eric Miller

They’re OK. Definitely can give up a few pressures to M’s edge rushers. Specifically, I recall Eric Miller giving up a few pressures vs IU last week. Purdue lost their starting RT Cam Craig for the season due to a back injury. That happened a month or so ago.

M’s pass rush has been weird this season. Definitely not as reliable as Hutchinson/ Ojabo last season. The M defense makes up for it with complimentary ball. Mostly fantastic open field tackling too.

Aidan O’Connell has sneaky good pocket presence. He can buy himself an extra second or so at times.

[Mike]

Ha. I like this "Opponent Watch" from Mgoblog:

https://mgoblog.com/content/opponent-watch-2022-bonus-round

Purdue lost to 7-5 Syracuse, beat 5-7 FAU by two points, and beat Maryland, Nebraska, and Northwestern by a single score each, but a 31-24 win over Illinois in which the refs cheated* and a 20-10 win over an Ibrahim-less Minnesota were enough to seal the deal.

[*Source wishes to remain unnamed, and would like another Pabst please]

When last time we saw them: I checked several sources, and I learned something fascinating: Purdue is a member of the Big Ten Conference. Has been since 1896. Which feels weird, because Michigan has only played them once in the last decade, a 28-10 win in West Lafayette in 2017 that ushered in the John O’Korn era. Overall, Michigan has won 9 of the last 11 matchups, with the two losses coming in 2008 and 2009 during The Troubles.

This team is as frightening as: The fifth best team in the worse half of the third toughest conference in America. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Charlie Jones led the Big Ten in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns. He also escaped the Iowa receiver room like El Chapo escaping from a Mexican prison. He cannot be killed. He is immune to prosecution.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Last year,Aiden O’Connell threw for 8.2 yards per attempt in conference play with a 21-6 TD/INT ratio. This year he’s at 6.6 YPA with 15 TDs and 10 INTs.