Michigan 45, OSU 23.

[iam416]

More hyperbole ....... good pass defenses in the BIG are giving up low- mid 160 ypg. Nationally M is a good pass D (161 ypg) and ranked # 5. OSU is #11 nationally and giving up 175 - hardly an "atrocious" pass D. The Delta is insignificant. Schools in the "atrocious" league are giving up way over 250.

Ohio State gives up 94% of expected opponent yards in the passing game. That's actually a red flag number. The fact that they have a highly ranked pass defense speaks waaaaay more to just how fucking unbelievably fucking awful B10 offenses are. The only two teams they've played with a remote chance of putting up good pass numbrers against air are Penn State and Maryland, and both torched them.

Ohio State's run defense is at roughly 83% of expected opponent yards. (M is at 75% for rushing and 82% for passing). 82 is a solid number.

[Jeff Buchanan]

WX update: mgoboard has a wx post this morning calling for rain on Saturday during the game. Posters are happy about this supposedly becasue it hurts OSU - it doesn't.

The problem with that game day wx related post is that its at least 24h behind the actual forecaster's thinking. As previously described, a cold front pushes through the Columbus area on Thursday night producing some rain on Friday and clears the forecast area rapidly moving eastward by Friday night remaining west of the Appalachians. What that does is delay the track of this trailing trough's moisture I've been talking about and its impact on Columbus.

As of this morning's, 9am NWS discussion, the wx will remain dry at least through Saturday morning inot the early afternoon with the heavier rain impact late Saturday afternoon into Sunday night and continuing during the day on Sunday - the timing is still in question. IOW when will the rain start on Saturday? Currently the forecast is for a 30% chance of light precip after 1pm increasing as the afternoon progresses. The timing of the start of rain has been trending later and later on Saturday in sequential NWS forecast discussions over the last 48h.

I'm one that is not praying to the wx gods for wind, rain and cold temps. Let both teams play with what they've got without this wish that OSU's passing game get's slowed by rain and wind (it's light BTW with temps in the low to mid 50s).

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've linked to the Eleven Warriors article on how Jim Knowels has reshaped OSU's defense since taking the DC spot right after M's mugging of OSU last season. That link is at the bottom of this post.

This particular video (could not embed) highlights how OSU's defense forces a QB's hand-off instead of a keeper. In this video, the offense is lined up for an RPO. The QB is reading the DE, he crashes inside prompting a QB keeper. But, there's a defender (the "adjuster") ready to decapitate the QB if he keeps. Since my take is that Harbaugh has to run a credible number of RPOs to present a threat of JJ using his legs, this video got my attention:

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/LinearMagn...iji-mobile.mp4

Knowles didn't change the defensive alignment from 2021(its fundamentally a 3-4) but he has changed defenders responsibilities and added lots of variability to each defender's role. Compared to last season where there was little of that, there's a lot of this season. Read the entire article below:

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-...rength-in-2022

[maxreturn]

I like the mood leading up to this game and all the hype about Stroud and how McCarthy has regressed. This is clearly a big stage for McCarthy but I'm going to go out a limb and predict he will perform much better than anyone expects. He is due.

[THE_WIZARD_]

It's HARBAUGH!!!!!!! time...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Does everyone remember asking WTF when it came to Turner and Green playing 10y off their man in the Illinois game and frequently past the sticks allowing Illinois to keep moving the chains? If this scheme continues - and I'm sure Minter had his reasons v. Illinois - OSU's passing game will kill that coverage. Between GJ's accuracy, the skill sets of OSU's receivers and soft coverage ..... doom.

I could't embed this gfy cat but it's easy to get to.

The video shows OSU v. PSU and features a slant being run by Harrison. PSU has good DBs and LBs that can drop and cover. Harrison is lined up as a WR (2nd from the top). Coverage on Harrison is about 7y (a S?) with the other two cover guys (1 CB and a LB?) playing at about 5y. Stroud has what he wants (man) at the snap and has already determined pre-snap if it's man Harrison is going to be his target. It's man and CJ makes a nice quick throw. What's impressive is CJ's accuracy and Harrison's route running skill - gets separation making things easy for CJ - and his YAC.

The main point here is that Minter cannot deploy coverage 10y back. 5y may not be ideal v. MH compared to man but this is MH so, compromise. 5y it is and live with it.

https://gfycat.com/obedientillhammerkop

Stuff I'm reading today indicates that M cannot get sufficient organic pressure on Stroud to get him to flinch - and by this I mean to get anxious and end up throwing off his back foot. He's very good at escaping pressures and hitting guys that break open who are equally good at doing that. He doesn't take off a lot (like Devito) - not his thing. But pressure M must get if there is any hope in containing OS's passing game. Stroud and his receivers are going to make plays. Make them hard and limit the big ones he's going to try to make by not letting coverage on the back end break down or poor tackling to occur.

OSU runs an NFL style spread offense built to pass. They do call run plays but their interior OL isn't good enough to elevate that part of their game. Stop the run (an easier task for M's D) but focus on limiting the passing game. Minter is going to have to blitz a lot and, of course, take the risk that bad outcomes associated with that might occur. But the consensus I'm reading today is that keeping as much pressure on Stroud as possible, taking the necessary risks to do that, is key. Maryland had some success with that. One analysis I read suggests that if M can keep OSU's offense in the under 450 total yards range, OSU will produce points in the high 20s based on their 2022 performance to date - unless they are gifted short fields (Iowa) or turnovers (PSU). Obviously, M can't do that and expect to win. They can and must hold OSU to below 450 and belwo 30 pts to have a chance at winning.

Here's some good analysis from Space Coyote:

https://twitter.com/spacecoyotebds/s...QfjHpQiTTw_erQ

No predictions yet ..... still too many unknowns in particular the status of Morris, Corum and Edwards. I'm holding off until pre-game we see all of those guys dressed and warming up.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HCRD!!!!!!! 37 HARBAUGH!!!!!!! 34 in OT

[WingsFan]

For those who care about the weather, I think its ridiculous to predict 4+ plus days out, but 2 will probably be about right.


No rain or wind and warm


Saturday 11/26
7% / 0 in
Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High around 55F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.

[lineygoblue]

Ideal passing team weather.

[iam416]

Gonna be great for tailgating. Hopefully Doug takes my advice and ends up in my lot.

[AlabamAlum]

What’s your menu?

[THE_WIZARD_]

Twat Waffles for breakfast?

[iam416]

What’s your menu?

It’s my brother and I. So nothing elaborate. Breakfast sandwiches, brats, burgers, beers. But, it’s something we do together every two years (unless M cancels), and it’s something I treasure. That cold ass 530a November air is great for the soul.

That said, Doug is outstanding with some great stuff so I hope he heeds my advice. Heh. Either way. I’ll have my drinking gloves and my Pabst. I’ll be in my happy place until HARBUGH!!! rips my soul to shreds.

[iam416]

Somewhat relatedly, I’m 100% planning on visiting Tuscaloosa in a few years. I know some guys who tailgate there, but I remain optimistic that we’ll finally meet so that I can grind your Scotch opening to dust over a real board.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Get a fucking room.