Michigan 19, Illinois 17, Post Game Discussion

[Tom W]

Probably won't be able to get there until at least 11. My son has stuff that morning.

Weather and the Illini not being the formidable opponent that they once were thought of might keep the lot from filling up, so you should be okay. Post game is the real advantage. Stop by, have a couple of beers and watch the 3:30 games. Waiting for an hour and a half makes getting out of town infinitely easier.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Blue.Maize.Bloodbath.

Book it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hanni, you're welcome to join the tailgate left side back corner of Scio church lot before or after the game. Parking as directed by the couple that runs the parking as you enter and pay the $30. BYOB/snacks. Doug Dillon sets up a trailer full of TVs. There will be a fire and other heat sources surronded by seating. Teri Dillon is in charge of food and its pretty much planned already so, no expectation for you to bring anything. Served buffet style before with something provided after the game as well. My son Sean helps her out. You can give him a call for lot parking details and other advice on food, walking to game and back, about 15 minutes lot to seats. I'll pm you Sean's telephone number.

[Jeff Buchanan]

By mid-week, I started to have a bad feeling about this game. I think most of that feelings ball were a result of wanting badly to go to c-bus undefeated and Illinois was perceived as standing in the way of that.. This morning, I bulled through FFFF Illinois Offense. Alex Drain of mgo does a very thorough (you overthink this shit, Alex) analysis. OTH, the match-ups at the unit and personnel leve favor Michigan big time. Facts.

Alex used the Minny game where Devito had his best day in all of conference play completing 73% of his attempts (he's not had a day like that in the other 9 games he's played). Regardless, he's a capable QB with a lot of experience. Better than Neb's Purdy and while Purdy suffered working behind a putrid OL, he had some running lanes. Devito has a better OL (with caveats at RG) to work behind, he hits his short game well and the way Bert uses him to augment Chase Brown's dominating run game works.

Bert runs his game a lot like Harbaugh but the Illinois offense lacks explosiveness if they are playing from behind. Illinois' defense is PSU/Iowa level good. If Illinois is playing with house money, they have the capacity to mitigate M's dominant run game becasue they can afford to take some risks on D and Bert will do that blitzing a lot. So, you feel better tonight about this game?

Somewhat. Let's start with the weather. Good thing it's a noon KO. The entire game should be played with snow showers to the west of Ann Arbor. The game will start with some sunshine and mix of clouds and a good bit of wind. Temps will struggle to get above 30 and wind chill will take those balmy temps into the low 20s - glad I'm not attending. As the afternoon progresses, clouds will thicken and snow is forecast after 8pm ..... but this is SE MI. Ann Arbor wasn't supposed to get snow last weekend either. Bad wx favors Illinois as it limits the advantages M has and equalizes the two offenses - you can discount M's passing game if you're in that mode but it's better than Illinois' and McCarthy is better than Devito in getting the team in a position to score then making it happen.

I'm assuming that Brown will play. That's going to make the Illini look good between the 20s and fan complaining will get loud. However, it's in the RZ that Illinois has weaknesses - they are 108th in RZ efficiency. They've found the red zone 44 times this season and gotten points on only 34 of those trips (77.3%). Of those 34 scores, 19 were TDs and 15 were FGs. Illinois is getting barely over 4 points per red zone possession this season. By comparison, Michigan, with it's own share of RZ issues is getting 5.5 red zone points per possession - and they started out really poorly so best RZ efficiency has been in the last 3 games. Bert's objective of getting a lead and sitting on M is going to be hard.

If Brown plays, this game is going to be a lot closer than the 17.5 spread predicts it will be. Harbaugh is going to try to keep plays the team has worked on for osu on the shelf so, once again, fans will complain of predictability and lack of innovation in play calling that produces a pretty vanilla offense. Deal with it. Devito saw Purdy's success running the ball in the middle as M defenders consistently ran themselves out of contain trying to get the big sack. Minter may or may not have fixed that but you can bet Devito will give it a try. He's not going to drop back, survey the field and drop dimes deep. First of all, Illinois doesn't do that anyway (the Illinois passing game consists of underneath stuff and is good at that) and second, the Illinois OL has a glaring weakness at RG where M's inside rush is going to cause problems for deep drops/play action.

Your final: M 27, Illinois 17. Illinois will lead at the half 14-10.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Iffen you are worried about Bert...your chances against HCRD!!!!!!! are minimal.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Bert has noting to lose. Harbaugh does. To that extent you could say I'm somewhat concerned. One can argue that the BTE will still be decided in c-bus in about 10d. That's true but don't get me started on all the weird scenarios and chaos involving one loss conference champs getting into the CFP.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Just remember this.

HARBAUGH!!!!!!!

[hack]

Where do you get your cash? Tips from the Burger Mart?

WARNING: inadvisable to respond to this with an accurate or actionable answer.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The USAF Weather Girl has posted her forecast for the game. It is going to be f'ing cold and windy. That really sucks. Temps in the single digits considering wind chill factor. The bowl does provide some protection from the wind at the field level but with sustained 20 kts and gusts in the low 30s, it gets down there swirling from all four directions. Regardless, the impact on the athletes on the field in these kinds of temperatures is to slow them down - an equalizer of sorts for Illinois but not by much, IMO. Forget McCarthy attempting the long ball. It would be nuts to call those plays. He can try out his short game and even that's iffy in really cold weather like this..... a rock hard ball is a bitch to catch.

I can't say either team gets an advantage here, maybe a slight one to Illinois. Offensive styles in the run game are so much alike, I just don't see one team getting any kind of big one. If Chase Brown is healthy and plays at 100%, the one interesting thing to watch in this game is the contest between Brown v. Corum and Illinois' OL v. M's. Illinois, according to the FFFF Offense article is as innovative as M is in their run game. They have tons of formations they run out of all with the intent of screwing with the defenders keys - just like Harbaugh.

M is unlikely to break 30 and Illinois 20 so, I think my prediction, trust me on this, "is solid." Sticking with 27 - 17 M

[Mike]

So, I assume you’re posting on a flight to DTW and will be at the lot by 7:00am.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Nope ..... I'll be watching on my 65" with the sliding glass doors to the pool open, screens in place and a light tropical 75 degree breeze flowing through the house. Suck it, it you're attending the game in person. Tailgating, Doug's fire pit will not be enough. His gas heaters will not be enough. Beer will be frozen. Any food served will be ice cold. It will be miserable. Count on it.

If you're actually going to the game, your nads will suck-up inside your belly, may never descend and your butt cheeks will nearly freeze to the ice cold seats .... and I'm not even talking about your feet or hands. Be careful of frost bite.

[iam416]

I mean, it WILL be cold, but you’d get the same hellscape prediction from Buchanan if it was gonna be 48 with an off chance of sprinkles.

[Jeff Buchanan]

You've got that wrong, bud ....... anything below 60 - frozen tundra conditions. Parkas, ski masks and gloves!

[Mike]

Well, I’m actually NOT going to the game tomorrow. That small tragedy aside, the important thing is that there will still be 187,000+ (estimated) fans in attendance.

[WingsFan]

This is the least interested I have been in a while (When Michigan is good) but I'm sure ill be ready tomorrow without any complaints. Just try to get some guys somewhat healthy and rest all the others (if that's possible?). Fuck it's cold out, I just took the dog out 10° wind chill with some snow. I wish we were Healthy and had better weather so HARBAUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! could put an ass whooping on MEATHEAD.