Michigan 19, Illinois 17, Post Game Discussion

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!!!!!! 34 BERT!!!!!!! 9

[Dr. Strangelove]

Bert will miss the first half after losing track of time at Blimpy Burger

[Jeff Buchanan]

Sunday's and Monday's post Nebraska game write ups from various sources seem to coalesce on the viewpoint that there are two types of games for Harbaugh this season: The ones that are important and the ones that aren't. This is a more subtle take on post game comments in the past that say something like, Michigan came out flat or wasn't up for the game. Rutgers and Nebraska, were, correctly judged, to be unimportant. That does not mean that players weren't up for the game. Coaches do different things to get players prepared for games where the talent their going to face on the field is a threat and where it isn't.

Nebraska was not a threat ..... this, it is said, affects how the coaching staff manages in game strategy. IOW, what fans thought was a cluster at the end of the first half where M could have gotten a TD but settled for a FG was, in fact, probably the plan from the time M got possession on their last drive of the first half. Drive the field, no need to be in a hurry, burn some clock, get some points, no need to explode because Nebraska isn't "important." Mission accomplished.

Important games in 2022 are MSU and osu, probably PSU. Illinois? Nope and has become less important after the Illini have suffered two consecutive losses before traveling to Ann Arbor on Saturday. If Chase Brown doesn't play, besides a decent defense that may slow down M's run game, Illinois isn't much more of a threat than Nebraska. If Brown does play we move from a 2 on the threat scale of 1-10 to somewhere slightly above a 3.

So, expect this game to be dull, boring and not at all explosive. Harbaugh will not ask McCarthy to make big plays with his legs or his arm. That's because, well, obviously, that kid CANNOT take a thunder sack or get injured running before osu if M is to have a chance to steal one in c-bus. It's also because it's pretty obvious that the long ball threat has not materialized for a lot of reasons and why keep trying to make those high risk low probability big plays work when your QB has trouble making catchable throws and the receives are rarely getting separation for McCarthy to connect with them. Besides, you're beating the snot out of opponents with your run game and controlling the game flow without being spectacular for CFP play-off committee style points.

Harbaugh may scheme some pass plays during this week's practice ..... just in case Bielema has a good defensive plan to bottle up Corum and fool M's OL But don't expect that if M keeps blasting Illinois up front and off the ball, getting 4-5y/carry, grinding out 12 play scoring drives and M's defense is doing it's usual stifling things in the run game while harassing the shit out of Tommyy Divito. Don't expect Devito will win the game for Illinois even if Bert, minus Chase Brown, schemes out a pass heavy offense against M's somewhat inconsistent pass D. Take a look at his game stats - not great:

Devito.jpg
Note his low completion rates and his average yards per throw. There is insight on how this game will play out, right there. I think Wiz is close on his score prediction. I'll chime in later.

[Hannibal]

Any word on whether Chase Brown is playing this weekend?

[THE_WIZARD_]

Does it matter? Other than the spread?

[Hannibal]

If he's not playing, it will make the 2nd quarter less nerve wracking.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Any word on whether Chase Brown is playing this weekend?

Have not seen anything definitive. Only suggestions that he "might" play. Mike Morris was interviewed by Jon Jansen's Inside Michigan Football radio show yesterday evening. A lot of coach speak but he says he's "fine." "Getting treatment." My take is that he suffered an inversion or eversion injury to his foot, probably the former which is more common. it means you have injured one or more of the three main ligaments on the outside of your ankle; the anterior talofibular ligament (ATFL), the posterior talofibular ligament (PTFL) and the calcaneofibular ligament (CFL). Based on what I saw on the video I rewatched, he was having difficulty weight bearing suggesting more than a tweak. Reportedly, exiting the locker room he did not have a boot on nor using crutches - a good sign.

There's a lot things you can do with Physical Therapy to hasten healing but even with a strain (there is some tissue tearing), it can take 2-3w to return to full activity for an athlete. It's senior day. He wants to play. Medical staff will make the call. I'd rest him. M doesn't need him v. Illinois and Devito. They need him at 100% v stroud and osu.

In other relevant comments, Jansen said JJ is getting just over 4s to make his throw in pass-pro. Against all opponents, McCarthy has been pressured or sacked 53x in 10 games but 15 of those came in the last two games. That's telling and is undoubtedly a result of the musical chairs being played on the OL. Hayes at LT is not 100% - at least he's not performing at that level and the RT position being filled by Barnhart and others is a problem.

IMO, while JJ is under increased pressure, that's only part of the problem with his accuracy as demonstrated in his rapidly falling completion rate - short, intermediate or long throws. As long as the offensive staff is seeing the run game work, they're not going to throw the ball and that makes sense given JJ's and his receivers issues succeeding in that aspect of the game - they are burned downs when Corum is averaging over 5y per carry. Better defenses against the run, which both Illinois and osu have, will likely demand more passing. Scary thought given what were seeing in that aspect of the game.

BTW, the weather on Saturday is going to be marginal. The high is forecast to be in the mid 20s with winds of 15 kts - apparent temps in the teens at game time. Right now the forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with snow showers. No accumulation. Not great football weather that favors the visitor.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Hanni, still working on connecting you with our tailgate group. If I'm able to that, there will be a parking spot for you in the area we use (back right). How many in your group? I told Doug there would be 4. There is already a crowd planned. That limits parking availability around the tailgate site. Still, there's plenty of space at Scio. It's $25. For a noon kick, I'd plan on getting to the lot no later than 10am. The earlier the better. The cold weather may dampen game attendance and lessen traffic as well. But traffic starts backing up 2.5 to 3h before the game.

You can't bring those seat cushions into the stadium as far as I know. You can bring blankets. I think you can rent them - I saw a stand doing that in the lower access corridors on the east side of the stadium.

[Mike]

Jeff, Jeff, Jeff... Go drink a cup of coffee.

The tailgate spot is in the back LEFT as you pull in. It is $30 (still a relative bargain), and YES you can bring in seat cushions.

[Hannibal]

Seat cushions OK....What about the little folding seats that you can hook into bleachers that have a seat back?

[Jeff Buchanan]

Thanks, well, it's on the right as you drive out!

[Hannibal]

Probably won't be able to get there until at least 11. My son has stuff that morning.

[Mike]

Seat cushions OK....What about the little folding seats that you can hook into bleachers that have a seat back?

Not sure about the seat back version. I haven't seen any in a long time.

EDIT: looked it up and found this:

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/the-big-house-bag-policy-whats-allowed-whats-prohibited-at-michigan-football-games

Prohibited items in Michigan Stadium

• Seat cushions with metal or pockets, storage slots, seat backs, arm rests

You can use the flat foam cushions though. Also worth noting that all concessions are cashless now. Card only.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yeah Ohio Stadium went cashless too some time back. What's annoying is virtually every nearby bar and tailgate party is cash only. So you end up needing both anyways.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Where do you get your cash? Tips from the Burger Mart?