Michigan 52, Rutgers 17 Post Game Discussion

[edindetroit]

What I meant is that it's not as if Rutgers has been kicking our ass all over the field.

How did that argument hold up for you?

[Mike]

Pretty good it seems.

[iam416]

Easy cover AND easy over. The Talent, again, nails the fuck out of it.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Final will be HARBAUGH!!!!!!! 42 RUTS-GERS 10

I wasn't too far off...

[Hannibal]

Well, at least you fucks get to be aggravated over a game that should be a blowout. Great way to spend 3hrs, lemme tell you.

HAHHAHAHAHAHA

East a dick -- you'll need to get your schadenfreude from somewhere else this weekend.

Sincerely yours,

Hannibal

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeeez, glad I didn't watch the first half. Tuned in as Barrett hauls in a pick-six. After that I drank too much Amaretto while enjoying what sure looked like an ass-kicking to me from the start. From 10k feet and as I tuned in, this game looked uncompetitive and a routine blowout. I suspect that understates the amount of annoyance this game - and Schiano is always annoying not in a IU's Allen sort of way - those of you who watched the entire game.

At about 8:05 as things went south for M, board comments started showing the frustration:

...this defense isn't really good enough, not in the 1st half anyway. They will not be able to compete in the big games behind early. Rutgers?? Really?

OK, yeah in the first half but let's look under the hood (from mgo):

Michigan outgained Rutgers 433-180 but it was even more dominant under the hood. Rutgers had three passing plays for a total of 113 yards and their other 45 plays went for 67 yards (1.49 YPP). They ran it 19 times for a total of 14 yards and Wimsatt was 14/29 for 166 yards, 1 TD to 3 INT. They scored 10 offensive points and this is a list of their drives by yardage: 3, 61, -9, 68, -1, -4, 0, 31, -1, 4, 8, 1. Michigan's defensive line completely overwhelmed the Rutgers offensive line, and once the fades were shut off in the second half, the Scarlet Knights had nothing. Wimsatt made a few nice throws in the first half, but then showed his inexperience in the second half, demonstrated in the repeated turnovers.

....... and this from the board:

The passing game still sucks a big fat dick.

Again from mgo:

On offense, Michigan paved Rutgers to the tune of 282 yards on 53 carries (5.3 YPC). Both Edwards and Corum gained 100 yards and Corum added two TDs to his total. The only aspect of the game that seemed a bit off was the passing game, maligned by some uncharacteristically poor pass protection, among other issues. JJ McCarthy struggled with accuracy at times, but he was given little help from his receivers besides Edwards, in addition to taking his fair share of shots to the body. Luke Schoonmaker had a TD ripped out by the defender, while both Cornelius Johnson and Ronnie Bell dropped passes. That's the nature of being an elite team: one aspect of your squad can struggle and you can sleepwalk for a half and it doesn't matter. Michigan still pummeled a less-than-quality team by 35 points, covering the spread in the process.

On balance I don't think it matters that McCarthy has a few issues - for a first year starter who was playing HS ball not too long ago, his counterpart playing the same position for Rutgers and having about the same CFB experience is the guy who we should be comparing McCarthy to (look at the QBRs)

QB.jpg
M's passing game is good enough IMO given the quality of the run game. I'm also not sure how many snaps the OL "one's" played. Someone posted there were problems with pass-pro. Here's the player participation snipped from mgoblue - lots of rotation could account for the body blows McCarthy absorbed.

OL.jpg
I have yet to watch the full game that I recorded ..... maybe I shouldn't. Instead I'll just bask in the tilted perception of the game I have from watching it from the mid 3rd to the final - that was great. I also don't want to spoil my perception of what should transpire with the CFP rankings when they come out this week:

UGA 9-0
M 9-0
osu 9-0
TCU 9-0

USC 8-1
Oregon 8-1
TCU
M
osu

[lineygoblue]

Its safe to say this was not McCarthy's best game. It was one of his worst. He again threw too hard at times, underthrew, threw behind receivers, etc. Accuracy was a problem, and I can understand why Harbaugh leaned toward McNamara early on. McCarthy has a lot of raw talent and a great upside, but he's nowhere close to his potential when it comes to consistency. Again, the run game bailed him out. When you got a RB duo that can tack on 200 ypg, you don't need to be a Brady-like passer. Just hand the guys the ball, and stand back and watch. The OL gets a ton of credit for this as well. When we get to Thanksgiving Saturday and face a team that can stop the run, For Michigan to have even a puncher's chance in Columbus, they'll need him to have his best game of his career so far, and then some. He'll have to play over his head.

Once again, Minter makes some halftime adjustments, and the defense responds. The two picks took all the life out of any upset thoughts Rutgers had. It was great to see.

Nebraska comes to town this week for a 3:30 kick. I expect their best effort of the season.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Just to clarify, LT Ryan Hayes DNP and RS Freshman Jeffrey Persi started. CB Gamon Green was cleared to play but DNP. He was replaced by 5* frosh will Johnson. Also Roman WIlson DNP. True Freshman Tyler Morris was in the receiver rotation. Edge Rusher Jaylen Harrel DNP. Mazi Smith started but left early (uninjured). I would not doubt the flu bug played a part. Corum vomited on the sidelines after a tough TD run - he's done that before but Linesman noted something was wrong with him. He continued to play hard but he looked worked. Corum had 20 caries, 109, 4.3. Edwards had 15, 109, 7.3. The rotation of Edwards, Stokes (5 - nearly fumbled an exchange and that ended that), Warren (2) Dunlop (1) Gash (2) helped spell Corum.

TBC, there was a lot of substituting of starters in this game. Maybe surprisingly, replacements all played well. Also of note Schoonmaker took a big hit and went out for several series and was replaced by a rotation of 18 LOVELAND, 82 Bredeson, 84 Honigford, 88 Hibner, 89 Selzer to fill 3 TE sets that Harbaugh runs a lot. Schoonmaker did return to finish the game.

I just rewatched the entire game. I don't take notes on a play-by-play basis so this isn't UFR quality but a couple of things stood out. Hopefully these will all be confirmed when the UFR Offense is published.

I think Hannibal observed in the game thread that M's run offense was better between the 20s than inside the 10. There's a simple explanation for that - the Rutger's defense can literally put 10 guys in the box or very close to it and did that on the regular. Jake Butt commented on several snaps that got stuffed or only had small gains that Harbaugh wants to impose his will on opponents to include calling run plays through A gaps into a stacked D that most likely will result in a poor outcome. You and I saw that on 5 goal to go series.

Two things: by the 4th quarter you could see the toll that was taking on the 3 DTs Rutgers deployed for an interior D line that was getting pushed back at points outside the RZ resulting in a chunk plays by Edwards and Corum and on goal to go series, into the endzone. Corum could successfully run right behind Oluwatimi, the C, who routinely caved in the Rutgers D. That wasn't happening early. Mainly because the S's and LBs filled the gaps aggressively but wore down by the mid to late 4th (M had 3X TOP on Rutgers). Also, 7 trips inside the redzone 6 TDs, one FG. You can get frustrated by all these calls into stacked boxes but you can't quibble with those outcomes and TOP for the offense in the RZ or as a whole in this one.

I also think fans get the "too run oriented" offense wrong. In this game in particular McCarthy threw both long and intermediate routes with a sprinkling of short passes to the flats. JJ's numbers looked pedestrian (13/27, 151, 2, 0). But I counted 7 drops of catchable balls replaying those drops over and over on DVR to make sure the throws were good. They were and under a lot of pressure. Two long balls were almost perfectly thrown and catchable - one to Anthony where it looked like he slowed down so the pass appeared to be thrown long; another to C. Johnson that he had in his arms and dropped it. Ronnie Bell dropped two spot on throws - one in the EZ, Schoonmaker dropped a perfect throw in the EZ. Given those End Zone drops I find it hard to criticise JJ or the play calling on goal to go plays or, for that matter, the entire game.

Another thing that was clear to me is that the Rutgers D played amped and very physically. To start, M was getting out physicaled. The Rutgers Ss were especially physical and contested a whole lot of McCarthy's throws and made bone crushing tackles and hits. I don't think this was bad route running/not getting separation on the part of the targeted receiver. Coverage was as good as I've seen it v. M and these guys played to hit the receivers as hard as they could, all of that legal. C. Johnson's long ball drop was a result of great coverage and a big hit after he high pointed hthen secured the ball to his chest.

McCarthy also took 4 huge hits, physical hits, legal hits. One was on a sideline run where the hit was completely legal as pointed out in commentary. JJ put his shoulder down to remain in the filed of play and didn't declare he was stepping out of bounds. Whaaaam. Don't do that! All the others where on drop backs, one got flagged for roughing the passer - I thought it was a good call. Generally pass-pro held up but not as long as JJ would have liked it to, hence the pressure and body blows.

IMO, the Rutgers D (#13 nationally) is on a par with Iowa and PSU in the Big. Because Schiano is known for this, they play extremely hard and aggressively. If Greg had an offense to go with his defense, Rutgers would be decent, not great, decent but could snatch some wins from the front runners in the BTE. He's got a start with the just turned 19yo freshman QB he's rolled out. In this game he was responsible for 24 M points on turnovers. He also has a hot arm and hit some long balls to two very good WRs. Work in progress but a high celling I would think.

[WingsFan]

McCarthy also took 4 huge hits, physical hits, legal hits

I hope he's ok, he was seen wincing in pain after some of those hard hits. JJ here, but he still needs to take something off the ball in a lot of his throws along with putting some air under it as well to allow the receiver to go after the ball as well. If he gives AA a chance on that one deep ball it would have been easily a walk-in TD - AA had at least 3-4 yards of separation when they showed the replay and JJ is trying to throw a dime every throw ... sometimes you just need to trust your receivers or allow them to make a play on the ball.

[Hannibal]

Outside of the 2nd half against Indiana, JJ has yet to really show up this year (not counting CSU, Hawaii, and UConn). He has yet to cost us a game. In fact, it hasn't even made a game close, unless you count UMD, where McCarthy was just "okay".

He will need to show up big time soon though -- twice.

[lineygoblue]

Outside of the 2nd half against Indiana, JJ has yet to really show up this year (not counting CSU, Hawaii, and UConn). He has yet to cost us a game. In fact, it hasn't even made a game close, unless you count UMD, where McCarthy was just "okay".

He will need to show up big time soon though -- twice.

If Michigan is to win in Columbus, he'll have to outplay Stroud. That's why I see osu winning. Its just not happening.

[iam416]

Why on earth would he have to OUTPLAY Stroud? M is going to run the ball WAY better. So, M just needs JJ to be solid. Convert a couple third downs with either his arm or his legs. That's it.

If the game comes down to JJ vs CJ, then sign me the fuck up. That would be a best case scenario for Ohio State. It ain't happening, though.

[lineygoblue]

You said it yourself, sir. OSU's defense is playing very well. They can contain M's running game, and force JJ to be the difference maker. If M somehow forces Stroud to be the difference maker, that's going to be a major disaster. He can absolutely carry the team on his back. The kid makes incredible throws. JJ does not. He's still into air mail.

That's why I came to terms with 11-1 and Pasadena early on as the ceiling. Its to large of a hurdle for M to overcome.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Liney, do you think if you keep repeating this line that it's a reverse voodoo hex on osu? osu isn't good enough on offense if stroud IS THE OFFENSE. osu's OL is okay. 1.9 Points/possession last 3 games says it all. Their run game isn't good enough to control an outcome against CFP contenders. Period.

I'm not saying this guarantees an M win in c-bus but it improves M's chances. Obviously, bad weather helps M but even with perfect weather, if osu can't run the ball/convert 3rd and short/score TDs in the RZ - and talent is trying to make it clear there's problems doing that - my take is that the buckeyes should not be and are no, an overwhelming favorite if I were to give odds and O/U. RIght now, I'll give the buckeyes home field for -3 , stroud v. JJ for -7 and M's defense for +2. Let's call it -7.5 with an over-under around 48. That's today! Don't hold me to that.

[Hannibal]

We'd be favored at home. I'd make OSU 5.5-point faves right now in C'bus. I'd bet the over too since both teams probably are overrated on defense, or at least not as good as their stats.