Michigan 52, Rutgers 17 Post Game Discussion

[Hannibal]

Eh. I don't find field goal fests too fun to watch. We'll go on lots of 12-15 play drives and we'll score 30-ish points. Emotional intensity on both sides will probably be low. Better than a loss for sure though.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It won't be "fun" to watch only if you don't like watching a standard HARBAUGH!!!!!! gruesomely mauls his opponent to death. Yeah, you don't have Marvin Harrison. So what. You have Corum and Edwards and they'll run for 300+ yards and Rutgers will have zero chance of scoring on anything othe than fluke play.

It's standard M football under HARBAUGH!!!! I would imagine that, after a 20-2 run, it would be enjoyable for you people.

Hannibal reiterates that the forum unanimously thinks M will easily win v. Rutgers. There is no "debate" on this. It appears the entire discussion here over the last 48h, to which I assume you made your latest posts, is an attempt to make an otherwise dull football game with an obvious outcome have some interesting things to watch.

For example, it's been pointed out that the Rutgers D under Greg Schiano is good if you're going from NCAA stats and a #13 ranking in todal D nationally. Using >40 points as an arbitrary number indicating an offensive explosion, Maryland and IU held M under 40 and Iowa and MSU held M under 30. Despite fan expectations, none of these wins were blowouts. From a purely defensive standpoint - how M's typical surgical strangulating offense performs against a competent D, it will be interesting to see where Rutgers falls in that continuum.

Another relate example of something to watch: Given that M has a very good offense according to multiple stats in that larger category, there's an unrealistic expectation that M will "destroy' opponents. There's been an extensive discussion here that compared to the offensive styles of M's competitors for conference championships and the CFP, M just isn't flashy on offense, i.e., scoring 40 or 50+ covering big point spreads. It's dull but effective in sitting on an opponent - and that is Harbaugh's MO. It's pure speculation how much a flashy offense affects who gets in and who gets left out. TBH, while it shouldn't, blow-out wins among those judged to be in the running for the CFP impress the playoff committee. WIll Harbaugh green-light a quick, high scoring offense v. a team with a competent defense to produce a "blowout" to impress the CFP committee?

[lineygoblue]

Seems to me that over the last couple seasons, Harbaugh's MO has become to take a long time to score points, and keep the other team's offense off the field. Harbaugh seems to be fine with winning games 35-14, when he could be winning 49-3. He's not in to a bunch of quick scoring drives. He'd rather take 5-6 minutes per drive and shorten the game with his offense. CRD is all about unleashing his NFL style offense with all its talent, and laying big points on the opponent. Its a style preference, but both approaches seem to get the job done, and they suit the styles of the coaches and the players. CJ Stroud is going to win the Heisman because CRD consistently unleashes him to score big points, racking up tons of yards, which Heisman voters love. That's all well and good. It works for his team's talent as well. Harbaugh doesn't have that extensive level of talent, so his choice to shorten games, keeping the opposing offense off the field, saves his defense for when its really needed, in the 2nd half especially.

There were way too many scoring drives against msu last week that ended in FG's. Harbaugh knows this, and I'm sure that they've been working on red zone offense this week in practice. But his effort to shorten the game worked very well. They more than doubled TOP against msu.

[Hannibal]

FFFF for the Rutgers defense is up.

Looks very encouraging for UM's running game.

In total for the run defense, you've got two 250-lb. EDGEs who will be up against Michigan's tackles and 260-lb. Joel Honigford. Lewis/Bailey have had nice performances this year and are coming along in Schiano's defense, but I'm not sure how they won't be crushed to pulp by what Michigan has to offer on the exterior of its line, given what we've seen from them this year. Likewise, their DTs are just guys. I like Maijeh more than Hamilton but both players will likely be ragdolled a fair amount (270-lb. Hamilton especially) when they're fighting against 305 lb. Oluwatimi/Keegan and 315 lb. Zinter. If you want to test the edges, I'll take Michigan's WRs blocking against the Rutgers corners every day of the week.

That paragraph was a long way of saying that I expect this matchup to be a bloodbath considering what we've seen from these two teams. Miyan Williams rushed for 189 yards on 21 carries (9.0 YPC). Even if you want to take out the 70 yard TD, he was at a cool 6.0 YPC. Mo Ibrahim and Trey Potts combined to rush it 42 times for 216 yards (5.1 YPC) and their ability to consistently get plus gains on the ground allowed the Gophers to dominate time of possession (sound familiar?). Minnesota cobbled together two Army-like drives, one 19-play, 99-yard drive that lasted 10:27(!) and another 13-play, 86-yard drive that ate up 7:03. If Michigan wants to follow the same gameplan they had to crush MSU and PSU, there's no reason for me to think it won't be available.

It'll be a repeat of the MSU game. I'm thinking 260 rushing yards and 180 passing yards -- something in that neighborhood. Lots of field goals. No big plays. Few possessions.

[klondike]

Seems to me that over the last couple seasons, Harbaugh's MO has become to take a long time to score points, and keep the other team's offense off the field. Harbaugh seems to be fine with winning games 35-14, when he could be winning 49-3. He's not in to a bunch of quick scoring drives. He'd rather take 5-6 minutes per drive and shorten the game with his offense. CRD is all about unleashing his NFL style offense with all its talent, and laying big points on the opponent. Its a style preference, but both approaches seem to get the job done, and they suit the styles of the coaches and the players. CJ Stroud is going to win the Heisman because CRD consistently unleashes him to score big points, racking up tons of yards, which Heisman voters love. That's all well and good. It works for his team's talent as well. Harbaugh doesn't have that extensive level of talent, so his choice to shorten games, keeping the opposing offense off the field, saves his defense for when its really needed, in the 2nd half especially.

There were way too many scoring drives against msu last week that ended in FG's. Harbaugh knows this, and I'm sure that they've been working on red zone offense this week in practice. But his effort to shorten the game worked very well. They more than doubled TOP against msu.

I agree with the fact we have to accept all that. Just wish their Red Zone offense was more efficient in storing TD's. It seems H' is insistent on running the ball at all costs. If that's the case I wish they had a bruising RB like Haskins. Corum is good but red zone defenses are bunched up and those yardage become a lot harder to get.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Michigan (-26) at Rutgers. Michigan should score every time they have the ball until HARBAUGH!!! calls of the dogs with 90 seconds left to play. Rutgers will be lucky to score more than once. With an average red zone performance, M wins this one by a lot. I'll say HARBAUGH!!!!! 48, Chopping Wood 7.

I brought this over from the Around the Big Ten thread, it's talent's weekly prediction for M. First, it's going to be a nice evening in Piscataway - for throwing the ball. That's what it will take for M's offense to put up 48 points - talent's predicted M score. Is that going to happen? Nope. There's a reason the O/U is 45. Low scoring games (i.e., not 40-50+ arbitrarily signifying a blow out) against competent defenses is Harbaugh's low risk MO. I'm fine with it but M's offense will score 35, not 48. I don't think Rutgers offense can score a TD which I why I said they'd score 6 points off two FGs.

Now, it's possible M will get a special teams score on a punt or KO run back for a TD or a pick 6/scope and score 6 points. That seems to me to be unlikely. M is at the bottom of the Big in turnovers and INTs. They have yet to run back a punt or KO for 6.

[iam416]

The difference between 35-6 and 48-7 isn't all that much. I'm just saying. We both think M is going to cover. If anything, it just means that you think the under will hit and I say the over will hit. I do get a little nervous on over bets when they are essentially a one team over, but HARBAUGH!!!! is just too good.

[Obi-Jon]

Thinking it will be ugly. Lots of TDs, maybe 2 FGs. Rutgers gets garbage points.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is from Seth's UFR of the M 20-13 win over Rutgers in AA last year. It's a "Tale of the Tape" story line about what M fans have to fear will be a repeat of M's offensive performance v. Rutger's defense in 2021. Brian at mgo thinks this was Gatti's last game calling the offense. It was awful:

Seth's UFR came out with a –14 RPS number because Michigan got up two touchdowns before the half and called it a day. The problem with M's run game as it appeared to be designed to go against Rutger's run defense was seriously flawed. If it was a serious plan to move the ball ........ Harbaugh? Gattis?

• Zero end-arounds/reverses or the like.
• Zero jets.Zero orbit motions or bubble threats to occupy a SAM or safety.
• Zero screens.
• Zero offensive touches for A.J. Henning.
• One spread alignment that worked, then they went away from it.
• Zero QB keeps on zone reads until they kept on a bad read.

What Seth did count was (as called) 16 inside power runs (including one RPO), 11 inside and split zone runs, 9 short pass combos (including the other RPO), 4 midrange pass combos, 2 play-action passes, 2 bash runs, 1 QB sneak, and one very bad screen version of split flow. WIth Schiano stuffing the box to stop interior runs. The edge should be challenged. If you’re going to generously count one very bad screen version of split flow as an edge attack, that’s 3/53 plays that threatened to punish Rutgers for playing unsound defense to stop interior runs.

Hopefully, what appeared to be a classic turtle by M last season allowing an inferior opponent to hang around into the closing minutes of the game with a chance to steal it is irrelevant because M won't turtle after getting up 2 scores and plays to score for 60 minutes. This should be the only interesting thing to watch as the first half unfolds because if there is no turtling strategy the run and pass game will play out like it should, M will dominate and the score will reflect that.

[WingsFan]

Mazi and Hayes out tonight and a few others are injured/resting.... could be a problem

[edindetroit]

I should have gotten to my sister in law's house in Florida in time to see the game but we are stuck in Atlanta forever.

[WingsFan]

Blake!!

[WingsFan]

wtf

[WingsFan]

Blake scores TD and then is sick again?

[iam416]

I forgot how bad Rutgers is, especially with this QB. Can’t believe I said they’d score.