Michigan 29, MSU 7, Post Game Discussion

[klondike]

mgo did it's UFR Offense PSU. Nothing startling. Brian does these things in excruciating detail, which I suppose I should love that writing style. The shitty performance of a heretofore pretty good defense was not a result of a low level of competition that boosted their metrics. Brian thought they were legitimately good but the offensive brain trust exploited Manny Diaz's tendencies. Manny is a risk taker that coaches aggression. The front 7 routinely charged upfield looking for TFLs leaving huge gaps and open grass if the OL blocking is good. For the most part it was with a few exceptions. Result: big chunk plays by Edwards, Corum and McCarthy (on a properly read keeper!!!).

M's offense uses all kinds of formations and since the start of the season runs varying plays - both run and pass - designed to fool a defense prepped for one outcome as the play unfolds and find they are overcommitted to it. This is especially true in the run game where Corum's ability to change gaps with his cut backs can be a killer for a defense that tends to over-pursue up-filed. I would expect that Tucker will have scouted M's run game thoroughly and will probably do better than Manny Diaz's defense did v. the run.

Hopefully, we'll see more pass plays on non-standard downs to keep the chains moving. MSU's D may be more cautious about committing to the threat of JJ's legs. PSU was all over that and it presented opportunities to exploit the hesitation. JJ's legs on a RO are still a threat that has to be accounted for, not overused but in the tool box. If MSU's D shows up not getting penetration up front, M should avantage that with more intermediate and deep throws. JJ missed a couple of open receivers on well designed plays where it wasn't clear why he didn't throw to that guy???? More play-action would be nice and less pistol v. MSU.

I haven't seen anything this week that changes my score prediction: Final: 44-24, M........ at the half: 23-21, M

There was a game last year when PS lost to Illinois (when they were still shitty) and the Illini' won and gained over 350 yards rushing. Coach B' just ran a couple of plays like 70 times (with 3 TE's ) and PS couldn't stop them. A lot of it has to do with the stubbornness of their coaching.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Frames Janklin has the same kind of mindset as several M coaches I can think of in the past. Mike Debord comes to mind. We're Michigan, we don't care if you know the play is coming, we will beat you anyway sort of mentality. WIth today's modern defenses that is just stupid. An inability to adjust based on what the opponent is doing was blatantly obvious for PSU on both sides of the ball. In the most recent years, Harbaugh and his offensive and defensive staffs have brought a level of innovation to both the offense and defense that was sorely missed.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[Jeff Buchanan]

mgo's Alex Drain has a great FFFF Offense on MSU. Main points

• No KW III. Making MSU's offense much less dynamic than when he was on the roster. He's been replaced as "Dangerman' by ...
• WR Jayden Reed is a legitimate threat for a big play
• MSU's OL isn't good. Not new. What run game? It's bad with just guys as ball carriers trying to run behind a bad OL. What pass-pro? The OL has a hard time keeping Thorne upright
• ......... and therefore, he rolls out a lot and can extend plays pretty well.
• Thorne has taken a step back from last season in YPC; his Completion % is up slightly (more screens). He's dropping dimes or making bad throws that are dangerous.
• SP+ projects MSU to score 17 and Parker (@statsowar on twitter) projects 12.88.

https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-f...2022#read-more

[froot loops]

Keon Coleman might be better than Reed. The OL is bad.

[Hannibal]

I think that Thorne is underrated. He would look like a star behind a decent OL. But you can only prosper for so long with no running game and an all-round mediocre set of pass catchers.

[lineygoblue]

Just don't bring back Rocky Lombardi.

He is the Michigan killer.

[klondike]

I think that Thorne is underrated. He would look like a star behind a decent OL. But you can only prosper for so long with no running game and an all-round mediocre set of pass catchers.

Expect him to be on the dimes in this game. Also, I think they get their best OL back. Jones could be..

[Jeff Buchanan]

MSU had somewhat of a resurgence (got healthier v. Wisky) on defense after beating up on OoC teams followed by 5 miserable defensive efforts v. P5 teams. The yardage totals allowed in them were 503, 507, 489, 614, and 283. That last game is Wisconsin. Why such improvement? Wisconsin's offense QB'ed by Gram Mertz is a dumpster fire unable to exploit the GLARING weakness in MSU's pass D where opposing QBs are looking downfield at their receivers and everyone is open. Here are the passing stats for MSU's opponents - Ohio State, Washington, Maryland and Minnesota - with competent passing offenses that feasted on MSU's biggest defensive weakness:

• 24/40, 397 yards, 9.9 Y/A, 4 TD, 0 INT
• 23/26, 268 yards, 10.3 Y/A, 3 TD, 0 INT
• 32/41, 314 yards, 7.7 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT
• 21/26, 361 yards, 13.9 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 IN

Throw the ball guys!!! ....... From Alex Drain's FFFF MSU Defense:

The deep stuff should be open. The short stuff should be open. The intermediate stuff should be open. Whatever Michigan wants to do through the air should be there.

Why should M's offensive game plan work from a pass first concept? Well, because MSU has a very good run D based on a set of very good DTs with one of them returning from injury v. Wisconsin and impressing. He's now had two weeks to get to 100% after a strong if somewhat limited appearance v. the Badgers. He's a baller. I don't think this will happen but one of the scenarios that plays out as a close game that should not happen is Harbaugh trying to manball it through M's IOL to assert M's dominance at the LOS - he loves to do this and would love it more if the combo of Edwards and Corum can rush for 200 yards, rubbing Tucker's face in the dirt. A fool's errand .....

Do not play the game of football v. MSU like Mike Debord probably would. Running between the tackles against a 4-3 front to excess will produce stalled drives more than the sets of incremental, 4-6y run gains mixed with a few big chunk plays on the ground that move the chains that we saw v. PSU - that stupidly ran a bunch of 3-3-5 nickel. Test the run game but don't keep pounding the rock if early possessions are ending in punts. Alternatively, run outside - which M is good at. MSU's edge players are just guys compared to the DTs inside.

Another thing MSU does well is goal line stands - hmm, not good given M's questionable efficiency running the offense inside the opponent's 10. Again, Alex Drain:

Against Washington, they were faced with 1st & G from the *one yard line* and stuffed *four straight rushes*. Against Maryland, it was 1st & G from the two and they stopped four straight rushes. Against Wisconsin, it was 1st & G from the four and only on the fourth rush did the Badgers find the end zone. When asked to defend one yard, this defense pins its ears back and finds a way every damn time. Why teams keep trying it, I do not know. But it must be on the scouting report.

MSU has a decent organic pass-rush. The interior rush from the DTs and LBs is solid so were the few CB blitzes that Mertz never saw - sacked! They blitz a lot. Against Wisconsin, they rushed < 4 on only 3% of their plays. The difference maker here is that M's OL is probably elite compared to the other opponents MSU has faced. Both Corum and Edwards are good blockers v. leakers so, McCarthy should stay mostly clean - at least that is going to be essential if M plans on winning this game convincingly and not in a rock fight.

Oh, yeah ...... pass the ball. After reading both the mgo's MSU FFFF Offense and Defense, my revised scores are:

M 52, MSU 17 is your final. 31-10 M at the half.

[edindetroit]

Sparty has Michigan right where they want them.

Trap game?

[edindetroit]

Watching Sparty get crushed is NEVER a bad thing- especially on those all-too-rare occasions where that beatdown comes from the Wolverines. They haven't really had a good one since the Booby Williams days. Even their crappy 2016 team kept it respectable until Peppers ran back their failed (and meaningless) 2-pt conversion.

You can feel (a little) bad for Hawaii or UConn. They knew they were overmatched and there's some guilt associated with enjoying their dismemberment.

There's zero guilt or bad feelings for Sparty. Plus, there's just so much smugness from the Dantonio years and carried on by Tuck that still needs to get accounted for.

That was great!

Screenshot_20221028-171555_Facebook.jpg

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[Jeff Buchanan]

Trap game?

No ...... 15 years ago at the zenith of Loyd's coaching career, trap games were a real thing. That was because of the favored player and country club atmosphere that permeated the team..... if you could call it that. Players got lazy, team chemistry weakened and the coaching staff let that shit happen. The result was the unexpected loss - "unexpected" because fans were used to M winning and had been since post 1969 and Schembechler's toughness and winning ways. After the Moeller debacle, LC took over and things were good for most of his tenure, when he wated to retire and Bill Martin convinced him to stay, a rot over-took the team, LC finally retired and M entered a decade + in the wilderness.

It took Harbaugh too long to get what the team finally became in 2021 - confident, connected, well coached, Big Ten Champs. IMO, the 2021 team is better than the Mcnamara led 2021 team and that's because of Harbaugh's leadership and skillful management of his coaching staff. Success is infective and that's being seen by results on the field this season.

My point is that this is a very different team on multiple levels from what we saw at the end of Carr's career and during the wilderness period when shit did happen and conditioned fans to hand wring over that. It's a good story that should be celebrated by M fans. My bet is that Michigan will be completely prepared for MSU. Player match-ups favor M from an individual talent and unit skills standpoint. I'm putting my money on the offensive and defensive coaches game plans that will be well thought out and designed to take advantage of MSU's established weaknesses. If there are issues early, they'll be corrected. That sort of excellence has been a hallmark of the 2022 WOlverines. I don't expect the team to regress. I don't expect a trap game mentality to overtake the team. I expect M to win and dominate in the process.

[froot loops]

You fellas are overthinking it, MSU is not good. Spartan fans are trying to find 3 wins to get to the wonderful Quick Lane Bowl in fabulous downtown Detroit. If this game was at night in Spartan Stadium and the WWAWC worked their magic, they would have a chance at a trap game.

[lineygoblue]

Sparty will bring their best effort of the year. Its their last chance to be relevant this season.

Sparty can't play man ball with Michigan. They don't have the horses. Under Dumbtonio, they could play smash mouth but not anymore.

I still expect a lot of gadgety/gimmicky stuff from them on offense, because they can't run straight at Michigan, and they're not going to be able to throw with any continued success against M's front seven. It will have to be quick reads, slants, and screens. Once M has that covered, its over.

I see an uncomfortable game for M fans early, but as the game progresses, M will shut down whatever Sparty tries to do. M has been a strong 2nd half team since last year. No opponent has had a strong 2nd half against M this year. Minter has made good adjustments at the half.

Key will be the run game. If M establishes Corum and Edwards, it will be a blowout. If MSU stuffs that, and dares McCarthy to throw, he'll do just that. McCarthy is getting better. He has shown no signs of regression, unlike so many M quarterbacks in the 2000's.

I'd like to see a 62-3 ass kicking. I probably won't get it, so its probably going to be more like 36-13.