Michigan 29, MSU 7, Post Game Discussion

[Mike]

Maybe but the last 15 years of this rivalry have been defined by ridiculous levels of overachievement by MSU and constant overperformance versus the spread.

Very true but I think we're outside the margin of error in this one. Like the Iowa game, the disparity is just too great and I say that with a full understanding of this rivalry.

[lineygoblue]

If you could talk to the M players, I think they'd like to triple that point spread and cover it. There is absolutely no love lost between these two teams, OR the coaches.

If there's any game on the schedule where Harbaugh would like to goose the scoreboard, it'd be this one.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[froot loops]

I would have guessed a line around 17. We are not good this year.

[iam416]

There is zero way the line is 8. Zero way. It's gonna be way closer to 3 TDs. Probably 24.

If you saw 8 then you probably saw some line from the preseason.

ZERO CHANCE it's 8.

[froot loops]

Yeah it seems highly unlikely.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I repeat...IF it is 8...bet the farm and the tractor on M to cover. Lock of the Millennium.

[Mike]

It’s 8.5 on Fan Duel and Draft Kings. Vegas books don’t have a line yet.

[THE_WIZARD_]

If it's not at least in the upper teens I will be shocked. Should be around 20 but given the rivalry I understand the hesitance to place it that high... but there is a HUGE gap in talent...not to mention the huge coaching advantage with HARBAUGH!!!!!!! as well as home field...

[froot loops]

Agreed, if you are a bettor, this is the time to sell everything you own and place it on the Wolverines if it is at 8.5.

[Hannibal]

I'd lay 8.5 but not more than two TDs.

[Hannibal]

Since Dantonio arrived, MSU has outperformed the spread by an average of 7 points -- that's 13-2 ATS for those of you keeping track at home. Lines between UM and MSU have been mind blowingly bad most years. And that has held even for games played fairly late in the season. I see this one going a lot like the 2016 game.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Bat farts.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've been down this road with the M v. MSU outcome predictions for decades. This fact Hannibal brings up - "Since Dantonio arrived, MSU has outperformed the spread by an average of 7 points -- that's 13-2 ATS for those of you keeping track at home. Lines between UM and MSU have been mind blowingly bad most years" - is remarkably pertinent to the upcoming game.

Standing in contrast to this reality is the reality that over the last season and for 7 games in the current season is an apparent reversal of the expectation that something bad is going to happen in whatever game is upcoming. Linesman carried that expectation perfectly predicting the outcome of M's first 7 games, even the OOC games but, particularly the last 3. I made fun of it even though the sense - BPONE - was often fulfilled during Harbaugh's first seasons and until the last two.

If there is a game where BPONE still haunts M fans, it is this game and I suspect if I studied it's history, I'd find it's justified - to the extent that playing MSU is often a nightmare of high variance events. I can still see the muffed M punt, MSU scoop and score in the final seconds of the infamous 2015 home game.

So, tipping of hats to the odds makers inclusion of that reality in setting the spread, we may not see the spread rise as much as we think it should rise. I don't think M will lose this game for all the reasons already stated, for everything you can read and objectify outcomes. But I'm pretty sure there will be uncomfortable moments and if high variance events occur in sufficient numbers to undue whatever M has to potentially inflict on MSU, Sparty could notch a big upset that saves their miserable season to date.

[lineygoblue]

The scenario I'd like to see is a duplication of what M did to Iowa.

The O-line is doing nothing but getting better. No regression has been noted, as in previous years. Same with the defensive front. M is winning games by dominating the trenches. If M can dictate that type of game, then MSU is cooked. And probably by multiple touchdowns.

The problem comes in if MSU brings a bunch of stupid crap to the table like John L Smith did, and throws Michigan off. If they luck out a couple quick scores, it could affect M's poise a bit, and cause them to make mistakes, and force the issue. This is exactly what TUCK!!!!! wants.

MSU cannot beat Michigan head-to-head in a straight up ballgame. They're going to have to bring gimmicks that take Michigan out of what they do best. They have no running threat like they had last year. Walker put them on his back and carried them.

In the end, I think the gimmicky stuff isn't going to pay off for a full game. As Jeff said, I think there will be some uncomfortable times for M fans along the way, especially those of us that'd like to see M hang about 60 on Sparty. But I think M's overall physicality will eventually rule the day. I can't really predict a score, but I think the final gap will be about 7-10 points.