Michigan 29, MSU 7, Post Game Discussion

[Jeff Buchanan]

Final: 44-24, M........ at the half: 23-21, M

[iam416]

LOL.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Shortest JB post. Ever.

[Hannibal]

MSU's consistent overachievement in this rivalry can't be overstressed. It dates back a long way. Even John L Smith, who never beat us, only lost to us by double digits once and made us sweat out the other three. The only times when MSU doesn't overachieve us are years where the team has checked out because the coach is about to be fired or retire ('02, '06, '19). Our only double digit victory in a non coaching change year in the last 20 years was the 21-7 2018 game. This one will be a single digit win and MSU will be leading the game by a touchdown at some point -- probably early. The best analogy that I can think of for this year is the 2016 game, which was essentially a six point game.

[iam416]

That game was in EL. The best analogy is to 2019 and it's gonna be way worse than that.

[Mike]

I was at the 2016 game and after an early Sparty TD, Michigan went on a 30-3 run before MSU scored two late garbage time TDs. That game was not competitive and the only reason MSU scored in 2018 was because we fumbled at our own 7. I believe we held Sparty to something like 87 total yards in that game. Then, of course, in 2019 we completely destroyed them. This game will look more like D' Antoni's last game.

Also gotta love Rich Eisen!

[Hannibal]

Your narrative of the 2016 game is distorted. MSU moved the ball on our defense all day long (only one three-and-out the whole game). They didn't score more points because they turned it over on downs three times and missed a 34 yard field goal. It was not a shitkicking. Our offense moved the ball well, but were not physically dominant in that game. It was about as impressive to me as this year's win against Maryland.

[Jeff Buchanan]

That game was in EL. The best analogy is to 2019 and it's gonna be way worse than that.

You've been overestimating M's offense since the start of conference play. You've gotten worse with your posts on that subject since the PSU drilling.

In case it isn't clear to you, M's run game improvements have happened largely as a function of the increasing threat of a JJ keeper. As the wraps have started to come off the use of his legs as an offensive weapon, Corum, now Edwards are racking up huge numbers. Why is that? Corum, in particular is dusting the guys (mostly hybrid LB/Ss) who are assigned to watch the QB run. They're hesitating just pass the mesh long enough to make sure the QB isn't keeping, This in turn gets the ball carrier through the blockers on the opponent's DL and filling LBs, then beat that last guy that is where he is to prevent a 5-7y gain turning into a 50+ yard romp.

PSU defended the QB run about as poorly as they could have. Some of that had to do with how M's offensive coordinators scouted PSU's D for tendencies and tweaked M's offense to take advantage. Some of that came from M's OL dominating in run blocking. A 400+ yard run game was the result.

PSU had the pieces in place to keep track of JJ but M screwed with their reads - it was the ultimate RPS advantage to M - the offensive UFR will show this. If you want a preview there's a "Neck Sharpies" post at mgo today that looks at this in detail. I will guarantee you that MSU will have this figured out and I'd be surprised if M pounds MSU on the ground like they did PSU. WIthout a dominant run game, questions on RZ efficiency and JJ's limitations in his passing game, M isn't going to mercilessly drive the ball and score TDs against them. Unlike v. PSU, M will punt as drives stall outside FG range or kick FGs from the red zone as the RPS advantage is reduced.

That's what will keep the game uncomfortable for M fans in the first half. But, M's talent on offense and MSU's match-up deficiencies on D will start showing in the 3rd quarter and extend to the 4th. MSU's limited offense won't be able to keep up. M will build a lead and win going away. I give Tucker credit for installing some new plays M hasn't seen that will produce big gains at critical points in the first half. They'll score in the neighborhood of 21 points. Once that bag of tricks is emptied, that will be it aside from possibly a FG or garbage time TD.

So, yeah, 44-24 is your predicted final. This isn't Iowa.

[froot loops]

This is a season in which the Spartans would gladly take a Quick Lane Bowl berth. I'm not sure the over performance can be counted on. They don't have many seniors who have been through the wars. A lot of the older players came throught the transfer portal, so they don't have they don't have the experience.

Getting Slade and Henderson is helpful, the depth on the Spartans is minimal. Windmon is a really good player who is better now that they don't have to put him at DE. Those changes change the defense from really bad to probably below average. That's not enough. On offense, they would have to fight against the urge to establish the run. All three running backs are competent, but the strength is the outside receivers and the two tight ends. That's not really a formula to play ball control and not a formula to play grass basketball.

There isn't really a great recipe on how to keep it close other than a bunch of turnovers.

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[iam416]

Ohio State scored on 7 of their first 8 drives in EL and the one they missed on was a Pick-6. M is every bit as good on offense as OSU and probably even more balanced. They're going to score every time they have the ball unless there are turnovers.

Aside from turnovers, the only other variable wrt score is drive duration on both sides. Maybe MSU can limit drives if they can string some together. In theory, they have pretty decent WRs, so if Thorne overperforms it's possible to limit first half drives to maybe 4-5 per team. In that case, you're looking at something like 24-35 for M and 3-17 for Sparty. I guess I could also throw in penalties, but I'm not even sure a bad penalty would stop M.

However, I really don't see Sparty moving the ball much against an elite defense like M's. HARBAUGH!!!!, as he almost always does, has again hired a brilliant coordinator and the defense is even better than it was last year.

I'd say M is going to be in the 45-52 range and Sparty is going to be in the 6-17 range and that's with a 4th quarter where M barely tries. I'm leaning toward 48-13 only because M did show some redzone issues against PSU.

Regardless, if the line is under 3 TDs, M is a lock.

[froot loops]

I'm not sure the Spartans can count on penalties unless they draw one of those dastardly crews that has it out for Michigan.

I don't think the OSU game is a good game for transitive property sake. The MSU/OSU rivalry is not a rivalry at all, they generally kick the Spartans ass every year, there is no juice in that matchup. OSU just rolls out the players and they score every possession regardless of the situation. That's why the 2015 choke job in the horshoe was such a shock.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I'm not sure the Spartans can count on penalties unless they draw one of those dastardly crews that has it out for Michigan.

Ummm...dude...they ALL have it out for M...

[froot loops]

That's what I said, but I was shot down

[THE_WIZARD_]

Just go back and look at any M game thread...it's comical...