Michigan 41- PSU 17.

[Hannibal]

If we define elite as being as good as Alabama or Georgia right now, then I don’t need Michigan to elite in order to be happy with the football program. It’s not a reasonable expectation. Last year was our ceiling – I am happy with the overall results, despite the loss to MSU and the loss to Georgia in the playoff. We caught a bad break when Georgia choked away the SEC CCG. Had they not last that game, we would have beaten Cincinnati and made the NC game. The infrequency with which we hit that ceiling has been the problem. I was hoping that we would get there again this year but the performances against Maryland and Indiana, and the late game performance against Iowa have me convinced that we are going to fall short. I think that we are about as good as we were in 2018 or 2019, but our cupcake schedule is going to get us a better record.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well, I saw an elite team beat OSU last year at Michigan Stadium.

Leave me alone in my ignorance, if that's what it is.

You are elite in your idiocy.

[lineygoblue]

Thank you.

[iam416]

IMO, there was a pretty nice confluence of events for M last year. I think the extra COVID year helped them. I think it naturally helps teams w/ a lot pretty good players that aren't necessarily NFL talent, which is really where HARBAUGH!!!! recruits. Obviously, the sheer incompetence of the OSU defensive staff helped them -- and that was likely extended into 2021 because of Covid (I think Coombs is fired after 2020 if there isn't that built in excuse). And they had a difference-maker on the DL.

The first two, IMO, aren't really replicable. The last one certainly is.

In any event, M can win the B10 -- probably even this year. But that's about their ceiling (IMO).

I will say that McCarthy finally gives them an upside to sort of brush past talent deficiencies. It only took HARBAUGH!!!!! 8 seasons, but I think he finally has a QB with real actual upside that is totally elite. And, for that matter, he'll always have a huge chip on his shoulder against CRD because CRD chose McCord over him.

Anyway, I think the way to beat M is score points and stress their offense. Their offense is currently sort of on the upslope but not there, yet. They're gonna score, so you can't hope to play an Iowa game against them, but I'm not sure they can score at will. Penn State, though, is way more likely end up in an Iowa-type game, so that's why I like M to win comfortably. My only pause is that Iowa was able to run the ball in the 2H and Penn State is greatly improved on the OL (last year their OL was a total abomination...it's why they lost to M--in a really close game). It's not an abomination this season. It's a lot like OSU's defense where even slightly subpar is a ginormous improvement.

[Hannibal]

JJ is averaging 7.9 ypa so far in B1G play. In 1995, that would have been great. Today? Meh. Compare that number to Stroud. CJ Stroud is averaging 10.6 ypa so far in B1G play. Stroud has faced Wisky, Rugers, and MSU – those three games probably grade a little lower than Michigan when it comes to opposing defenses, but I don’t think that it’s by a wide margin. He has averaged over 10 ypa for his career. There is your measuring stick. That’s what elite means.

[iam416]

OSU will add Iowa to the mix next game. That'll be an interesting game, for me, mostly to see where Ohio State's offense really is. They honestly should score 45, but we'll see. If they're only in the 20s, then that's a big problem. That means their offense really isn't elite -- it can't scale up against good defenses. That'll mean a likely loss at HV and certain loss to M.

Now, to be clear, I think there's almost zero chance OSU loses to Iowa or that it's even all that close. But, 27-10 or something would be very concerning.

[Hannibal]

Iowa’s “bend but don’t break” approach is an ideal approach for playing OSU. For Michigan, the opposite is true. I could see Iowa forcing OSU into another Notre Dame game, but I wouldn’t read anything into that result, since there is no other Iowa on the schedule.

[iam416]

I would be concerned. Red zone efficiency killed OSU last year (even against M), and it's been off the charts great this year. They found a running game. If they can't do that against Iowa then it's an issue.

I guess it's also worth noting that OSU is playing with injuries to fairly important skill players. It highlights, IMO, the need for talent up and down the roster if you want to really compete. I expect JSN and Miyan Williams to be back for Iowa. And hopefully Henderson will get a chance to heal up, too. Harrison and Egbuka are first round picks, IMO, and Fleming is probably 2nd day, so it's not a huge issue, but it'd still be nice to have JSN. And Miyan Williams has been really good, so it'd be really nice to have him back.

[Hannibal]

We only scored 27 points against Iowa and I felt great about the offense after that game. All it takes to turn 41 points into 27 is a couple of possessions where you get a drive-killing penalty, a sack, or Iowa’s punter pins you inside your two yard line and you end up punting because you had to play ultra conservative. That’s essentially what happened to us. One drive died because JJ got tripped up by his right guard. Another drive failed because of a rare short yardage stuff (we have been great on short yardage up until Indiana). Then we had essentially a sack-fumble that set us back 20 yards and forced us to punt. One holding penalty, sack, or blind side block against Iowa and there goes your possession (probably). Just a few bad plays in a nine possession game and voila — am unimpressive point total. Depending on the circumstances, 27 points against Iowa might be really good.

[maxreturn]

UM will cover the spread. PSU beats up on U of Ohio, which they should do and has an impressive road win over Auburn, but they were far less impressive against CMU (1-3) and Northwestern (1-4). Harbaugh will open up the playbook more in this game.

[lineygoblue]

I like the optimism, but that first half, minus the first drive, sapped a lot of my optimism. That 2nd quarter was some awful M football.

[WingsFan]

I like Michigan in this game. PSU has not been very good on the road with Franklin and frankly (pend intended) bad at Michigan. I watched the IU game again - man that was a long game -, I do think Mike Hart's medical emergency had a lot to do with Michigan not getting on track till really the 4th. The crowd will be pumped up and Michigan Stadium has turned into a scary place to play now when the fans are into the game.

Maze out/ All Blue Uniforms

[klondike]

All things being equal, PS is awful in the big house. Until they prove otherwise, safe bet is with UM.

[lineygoblue]

I know it was the Covid year and all, but remember that Franklin brought his worst team as a HC to Michigan Stadium in 2020 and beat Michigan, and beat them badly.

Overall, PSU has not fared well in A2, but they have an impressive road win this season at Auburn. I know .. "Auburn is Au-ful".

If M wins, it will be a close one at the end, basically just like last year.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Liney ......presently 0-3 with doom and gloom predictions, that didn't materialize, soon to be 0-4. I'm aware you didn't predict M losses in any of those doom and gloom predictions. To my eye, I saw a talented M team on both sides of the ball along with ST, take care of business. Since the start of conference play I have not felt that M was not in control of the game flow and would win. The one exception was the end of the first quarter and start of the second v. IU. Allen's OC Bell, I think it is, appeared to recognize Minter's defense that mgo's UFR called "repping C3 Zone for the practice of it." The UFR concluded that M's coaching staff may not have taken IU seriously and thought they could role with C3 Zone and get some worthwhile practice in that D.

Bell abused that. At it's most basic form, the corners and FS play 3 deep zones, 1/3 of the field to each. The Weak Side DE covers one flat/intermediate routes, the SS covers the other. A S and and one LB join in to cover intermediate routes - that's 4 guys. The UFR demonstrates that Bell screwed with the defensive reads necessary for solid C3 Zone play. The 4 guys covering the flats/intermediate zone were routinely out of position for the short quick passing game Bazalk executed. The one exception was the S. In M's case guys filling that role are fast enough to cover mistakes. and they did keeping a 4-6y play from becoming a 30 yard chunk.

The UFR points out that fan perceptions during the time IU was moving the chains is that those plays - some of them big - were far fewer than the one's that weren't successful. The one's that were successful - only a few of them - but outsized by perceptions - rested on one or more of those four flat/intermediate route guys getting confused and missing an assignment. Some of this is due to a consistent hesitancy. This isn't new among LBs and Ss. Most of it, the UFR opines was good work by IU's OC in disguising what play was going to be run......screwing with M's scouting by doing something different with line play, motion and player alignments.

That stopped about 1/2 way through the 2nd period and IU's offense was shut down in the 2nd half. Turns out, the UFR exposed Bazalak for making his pre-snap read and going almost exclusively to his primary based on that. There were minimal exceptions to that rule. Once that was understood by the defense, less hesitancy appeared on the quick short throws because the reads got better by simply learning as each offensive play was run and then anticipating who was Bazalak's primary. Game over.

The point is, and I'm unabashedly singling you out (sorry), is that M fans still carry decades of experiencing pre-game anticipation that something bad is going to happen (BPONE) and M "might' lose. Of course, there's a track record of that so, no harm no foul. But last season should have mitigated some of that and, for the most part, what showed up in the OOC games was a talented bunch of dudes, on STs and on both sides of the ball, caveat opponents. The result of the Iowa game, feared because of Kinnick, should have shoved most feelings of bad things happen to M football to the curb. The Maryland win was v. a solid team. Feelings ball creeps in when it shouldn't and facts are diminished.

Penn State is good but not that good - any numbers you want to look at, both basic and fancy, demonstrate that - FACTS. Franklin is a good coach but he has a track record of making inexplicable coaching calls that disadvantage his players. There's along list of those while he has been coaching at PSU - FACTS. The home team has a historical advantage over the visiting team - FACT. If we're predicting outcomes in this game based on FACTS and not feelings, as it's been pointed out, The line opened at -7.5 for Michigan football. I thought that was low, talent pointed out why it wasn't. According to the latest odds from Fan Duel, the Wolverines are a 6.5-point favorite against Penn State on Saturday. The over/under is 52.5. The money line is +215 for Penn State and -265 for Michigan.

This is going to be a close game but ESPN's Power Rankings predict M with a 70% chance of winning. My mid-week update score prediction is getting adjusted from M 35 - PSU 21 to M 27 - PSU 19.