Michigan 41- PSU 17.

[WM Wolverine]

If M decides to wait out a full half of football before deciding to show up, they'll be behind by 3 scores instead of tied like they were vs the Hoosiers.

[iam416]

M will show up from second 1.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I almost feel sorry for the impending carnage about to leveled by HARBAUGH!!!!!!!

[CGVT]

M will show up from second 1.

I think that this is true.

As I said in the other thread, the Illinois game was a classic trap game and Michigan played accordingly. They weren't all in, but eventually the better talent showed up and they won pretty easily.

They may not beat Penn State, but they will show up.

We will see how good they are next week.

BTW, when it comes to "elite", you have GA and Alabama and maybe Ohio State and then the rest of the country.

[lineygoblue]

I'll agree that M in 2021 was 'elite' on both offense and defense.

Not so this year. At least not yet. Saturday and PSU awaits. We'll know more after about 4:00 pm.

[iam416]

They weren’t elite on offense. They didn’t have the QB play. That’s why an elite defense railed the fuck out of them. They weren’t really elite on defense. They were elite by B10 standards, but not SEC. They reminded me of the 2016 Ohio State team. Elite by B10 standards, but a complete level below the big boys.

The offense is way better this year. The defense is not.

I still think the SEC is a level above any B10 team, but M is the B10 team that might get them.

[CGVT]

They weren’t elite on offense. They didn’t have the QB play. That’s why an elite defense railed the fuck out of them. They weren’t really elite on defense. They were elite by B10 standards, but not SEC. They reminded me of the 2016 Ohio State team. Elite by B10 standards, but a complete level below the big boys.

The offense is way better this year. The defense is not.

I still think the SEC is a level above any B10 team, but M is the B10 team that might get them.

I agree with all of this except M being the team. OSU has SEC talent, Michigan does not.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I was looking for these specific stats earlier today and found them just now. I looked at "traditional stats" at the NCAA Football stats web page. I lifted this from an mgoboard post:

And this is why traditional stats are nearly worthless in football.

Michigan does not have the 69th-best passing offense by any factors which are relevant, such as yards-per-dropback. You only get to 69th by looking at counting stats. Michigan hasn’t thrown for a bunch of yards, but when they do throw, the passing game is quite good.

You can take your pick of advanced stats. A quick Google search for “ncaa advanced passing stats” leads me here: https://www.cfb-graphs.com . They have Michigan as the #2 team in the country, with the #11 passing offense in terms of expected points added per pass. PSU is at #50.....

Also, you’re greatly over ranking PSU's rushing attack just because they run a lot of running plays. In terms of EPA, they’re Hotel Rwanda and/or other Socially Relevant Films

None of the advanced stats suggest that PSU’s offense is any good, which matches both (a) what I’ve seen and (b) what I expected from Frames Janklin. Now, their defense is elite, and if this game were at night, in Happy Valley, I’d be nervous.

Michigan is a substantially better team than PSU. That doesn’t guarantee victory, of course, but there’s a reason that the computer models and Vegas are all in agreement; Michigan has a 70%+ chance to win Saturday.

[iam416]

I’m sure this was pointed out to the poster, but the website he references ranks Minnesota # 3 and James Madison # 6. Now, you may believe JMU is better than UAT, but to my mind that seriously calls into question the inputs that produce something so outlandish.

[lineygoblue]

IMO a team is elite in a season where they make the playoffs.

That only happens to four teams out of what? 160?

No debate on how good Georgia was last year. One of the best overall teams I've ever seen.

[iam416]

A team may be elite without a specific unit being elite. Ohio State made the title game in Covid year. They most definitely did NOT have an elite defense. And the 2016 JTB Buckeyes were definitely NOT elite on offense.

And, for that matter, there's no way Cincinnati was an elite team. Or, for that matter, 2015 Sparty. Or some of the Oklahoma teams.

There's B10 Elite -- and that's being good enough to dominate the conference. Then there's national elite -- and that's being good enough to win the national title. M was probably conference dominant (my only hesitation is because they did LOSE a game). There were absolutley not national elite.

That's how I view it. And I'd say the same thing about the Ohio State teams that didn't make the playoffs -- but finished like 12-1 or 12-2. Like the Haskins team that boatraced HARBAUGH!!! and Don Brown. That was maybe an elite B10 team (they lost a game), but definitely not an elite national team. That team finished #5 in the CFP ratings. If they had moved them up to #4 it still doesn't change what that team was.

That's how I view it.

And, honestly, I doubt M will ever have an elite team under HARBAUGH!!!! because he doesn't recruit well enough. The portal has thrown him a lifeline, though, and if he can used that effectively then maybe. But, I still don't see him putting together a talented enough team to beat the SEC powers.Win the B10? Sure.

[Hannibal]

If JJ is going to be considered a great QB, then this is the type of game where he needs to shine. No "youth" excuse -- by today's standards, a sophomore with 6 starts who got good freshman experience is plenty seasoned. If you look at all of the OSU QBs of the past decade, they were tearing all kinds of defenses to shreds in their first year starting. PSU is good on defense but I don't know if they are elite. If JJ has a mediocre or a bad game, then something is wrong with either JJ or the passing game coordination. I'm fairly convinced that the latter is an issue.

I want to see JJ throw for 350 yards on 30 pass attempts against a solid defense. Against Indiana, he threw for 305 yards on 36 attempts -- not bad, but not good enough. The playcalling and the abundance of 3rd and longs didn't help, but JJ was not dominant.

And if JJ is going to be a great QB, he needs to at least go 1-1 against OSU

I’m tired of mediocre QB play. When was the last time that our QB won us a big game? Devin Gardner against ND in 2013? He almost did it against OSU in 2013. I guess that Cade almost did it against MSU last year, but not quite.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I particularly like the characterization of "elite" CFB teams as BT dominant and national title level elite. Making the CFP doesn't IMO anoint a team as "elite." UGA destroying a good M team in the 2022 CFP is proof of that assertion.

I'd like to think that Harbaugh can produce an NC team without, what I believe talent offers as absolutely required, top shelf recruiting. I know I've hung my hat on this belief in the past and, nope, most of the time you need talent across all of the team not just in the skill positions. OTH, there are mitigating factors that can reduce the importance of elite players in a journey to an NC. Scheduling is one of those, injuries are another. I'd add the potentially destructive nature of NIL on team bonding and chemistry - an important component of a successful team in any sport.

Admittedly, the latter is subjective feelings ball stuff and difficult to quantify from the outside looking in. Still, teams that have primadonna players getting paid while the scut work is carried out by what amounts to slaves to the BS that is NCAA's amateurism can be divisive and interfere with the journey to an NC.

[lineygoblue]

Well, I saw an elite team beat OSU last year at Michigan Stadium.

Leave me alone in my ignorance, if that's what it is.

[Hannibal]

Watching OSU vs MSU, Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit reminded us repeatedly about how dominant OSUs QBs have been. They have had the best QB in the conference every year since Urban Meyer took over – sometimes by miles. The only exception that I can think of might be 2017 (McSorley). OSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, Joe Burrow (LSU), and Alabama have established new measuring sticks for QBs. It’s time for a Michigan QB to step up.