Michigan 41- PSU 17.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The skeptics are going to predict trouble. M will be ready. Stop Clifford from managing a short passing game like IU did out of the gate. Don't try bend don't break. Clifford leads the nation in RZ efficientcy (96%). Don't let PSU get there. Don't ride Corum at the expense of McCarthy hitting his bevy of great receivers.

M 35 - 21.

[iam416]

As Buchanan implies, the biggest problem HARBAUGH!!!! has is an offense that is so elite at every position that it can be difficult making sure all the elite talent gets touches. Hard to imagine HARBAUGH!!!! won't have a crushing gameplan ready for Saturday. He's basically been working with about 25% of the playbook because there has been zero need to do any more. Probably have to up to 50% this week.

And Minter has shown he's an elite DC and another in the long line of flawless coordinator hires by HARBAUGH!!!!!

Franklin has some dudes on his squad, but there's no way he wins in AA. None. I think Buchanan is close, but I see more FGs than TDs for PSU. Probably 45-13 or something.

[Hannibal]

PSU 21, UM 17.

If Joel Klatt knows what’s coming on every single play then you can be damn sure that Manny Diaz will too. Moore and Weiss are going to need surgery to repair their torn rectums after this game. Prepare to see Corum mobbed by three or four white helmets at the LOS every time that he touches the ball. But our OCs will throw in enough tendency breakers to put three scoring drives together and that translates to about 17 points.

Penn State isn’t set up to exploit the weaknesses in our defense as much as Maryland, bur they are good enough that the defense can’t carry us.

[iam416]

HARBAUGH!!! will have far better game plan for a real team. And there’s no way PSU can handle both the best RB in the country and arguably best WRs in the country. McCarthy would have to be fixing the game for them to lose.

[lineygoblue]

First impression : PSU 27 M 20

As Hanni said, if Joel Klatt is calling out M's tendencies from the booth, then PSU's brain trust has certainly seen it as well. In any running situation, PSU is going to run 4-5 guys straight at Corum, and ignore everyone else. M doesn't do fake handoffs, and McCarthy rarely keeps on bootlegs or options. He can't because M is thin at QB. M would have a chance if they could protect McCarthy, and attack downfield. But, Harbs isn't going to risk McCarthy taking big hits in the pocket. M will try to establish the run the way Bo did back in the day, and that strategy will fail. PSU will be more than ready for it. They have the defensive horses to shut M's running game completely down.

When PSU has the ball, I'd expect that when they pass, they'll move Clifford around a bit rather than have him stand in the pocket. M showed weakness again in the bubble screens and seam routes against Indiana, and PSU noticed. Expect more of the same. PSU actually has a running game, and M has shown occasional weakness to the run between TNT. They'll get some yards there.

Overall, I expect PSU to come in with a ball control offense, not necessarily taking big chances, but just taking what M/Minter gives them. On defense, they'll stuff M's run, and dare McCarthy to throw. Can McCarthy beat PSU with his arm? That's the question. My guess is no.

The Nits went into the heart of SEC territory and beat Auburn, and beat them badly. Yea, Auburn 'ain't great' but they're better than anyone M has played so far. That got my attention early on, and it says a lot about the grit of the Nits.

I loathe James Franklin. He lies to recruits, and he lies to his team. Like Lou Holtz, he's all about emotion. But, he brought his worst team as a HC to Ann Arbor in 2020, and beat Michigan badly. His team is better now, and Michigan has been exposed. I hate it, but that penis head is going to pull off the win. And it could be avoided if M would play some smart football. But that's expecting too much.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!!!!!! was playing possum against Norman Dale...now the woodshed beatings will begin...

[Tom W]

I like Jeff's assessment, with solid points to be found from sifting the sand that Talent has been bagging. Outside of MSU, Harbaugh has shown a pattern of scheming for individual opponents. He's got better players and it doesn't take a genius to outcoach Franklin. Plus, it's at HOME.

[lineygoblue]

I hope you and Jeff are right, Tom. I'd love to be wrong.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I hope you and Jeff are right, Tom. I'd love to be wrong.

Your track record of predicting doom and gloom is good. I think you're 0-3 predicting the outcome for M in conference games. You should stick to that. It provides balance to my unbounded optimism.

#10 Penn State vs. #4 Michigan opening odds

Spread: Michigan -7
Total: 51.5

[lineygoblue]

I'm too lazy to go back and check, but I don't think I've predicted a M loss until this upcoming game.

I thought Iowa would be close, and I allowed myself to be optimistic for the Indiana game. I think for Indiana, I predicted something like 44-13.

But I don't see how anyone, including you with your unbounded optimism could see a comfortable M win coming up against PSU. They've proven they can beat a tough opponent on the road.

But I won't be upset if I'm wrong and you're right.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I don't get those opening odds. Teams coming off by-weeks can have issues. On the road makes them worse. Then there is Clifford. He has a 63% completion rate - their offense tends to be one dimensional. They'll try to lean on the run to protect Clifford (he doesn't run as a rule). They have a decent 4.94 ypa and 196 ypg rushing offense. M should cover -7 and talent may have a better feel for what those opening odds will get to by Friday. 10? 12? ..... even that seems low to me.

I agree with Linesman that PSU might find success running TNT. That's worth watching early. Minter cannot empty the box to play C2 zone and he doesn't need to against Clifford. Stop the run. Take the quick out/short passing game away by playing man and make sure the LBs know their roles - that's been a fixable weakness. There's plenty of speed in that unit. Don't let this be a match-up catastrophe that moves the sticks. Make Clifford drop back to do that.

There's been a lot of posting on the inter web about Klatt being able to call the offensive plays by formation. Frankly, I don't think Harbaugh cares. Fans shouldn't care either unless M stops rolling up 400+ yards of offense/game and getting wins. M is good enough and talented enough to run plays without getting funny......against any BT defense. Being creative as far as breaking tendencies is good. Doing silly shit that has a high probability of failure (Orgi Cat) just burns downs. PSU ranks 38th in total D (342 ypg). This isn't the greatest PSU D - good but not great. No reason to get cute on offense. Being creative as a means of breaking tendencies is fine. I believe, others don't, that M's offensive brain trust is pretty good at that. It doesn't produce a flashy O. It produces a competent, pass to run steady one, delivered by a QB, OL, TEs, WRs and a RB that don't turn the ball over, and have big play capability. Importantly McCarthy can drive the offense and score points. It doesn't want for much despite the fans calling for more deep balls/big plays. If you're not playing from behind conventional wisdom says you don't need that despite the fan's appetite for it.

To that point, M has a habit of closing the play-book when it is playing with a lead even ones smaller than I'm comfortable with watching a game. The last two games v. Iowa and IU featured stunning opening drives that were more than likely scripted. There seems to be a failure to capitalize on those and retain momentum. I think that's coming from the sideline as much as it is execution errors. That's hard to know. Certainly, many penalties on the offense indicated fixable execution errors could have behind stalled drives. OTH, that M entered the IU game as the least penalized team in the nation then racked up 10 of them for 95 yards should tell you something about this well known, flag happy BT crew. Less about the offense's performance.

[iam416]

The line won’t be much more than 7’. It’s set based on models and insight. The models wouldn’t love M because they’ve been meh in their 2-3 games of valuable comps. Beating IU by 21, including 2 4thQ scores, is decidedly unimpressive. The game against Maryland was decidedly unimpressive.

Penn State isn’t particularly impressive either, but they have found a semblance of a running game and do have 1, maybe 2 impressive results.

My guess is the models have it closer and the oddsmakers moved it up a bit.

Now, we both know that M has an elite offense with the best RB in the country, arguably the best WRs in the country, the best OL in the country and the highest upside QB in the country. And we know the defense is, again, elite. And we know M has the best coaching in the country. So, we know all this, but it’s more subjective. It’s not objective.

That’s good, though. Creates a huge money-making chance for us. We know M is gonna house these guys.

Finally, CFB Nerds will preview this game, probably on Monday. My guess is model shows 5-7 point win and they both bump it up to 10-14.

[lineygoblue]

I started to give your analysis credibility until I got to the 4th paragraph. Then you went back into silly mode.

I'll straighten this out as follows.

a. M has a good offense, not elite. The voters showed who the elite offenses are this week by ranking them Number 1 and Number 2 Case closed.
b. Corum is certainly within the top 5 RB's in the country. Not the top spot.
c. OSU has the best WR room in CFB. Probably good enough to compete on some NFL teams. M's WR room is very good, but not elite. Again, see the voters' opinion
d. McCarthy has a big upside, but he's learning. He's still a season away.
e. How anyone could call the defense elite after the first half on Saturday is just being silly.
f. M doesn't have the best coaching in the country. They're not even the best in the B1G. They're good, and they're better than they were about 10 years ago.

And you're right, your analysis is not objective. Its subjective and silly.

Carry on.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!!!!!! 27 PEDOPHILIA STATE 19

[Jeff Buchanan]

e. How anyone could call the defense elite after the first half on Saturday is just being silly.

I think they are close, not there yet when it comes to winning the BT. So, if we're looking at the FCS and saying the BT Champion is going to make the CFB playoff on the strength of defense, that' by default makes whoever wins the BTE "elite." I think M is in the running for that crown with PSU and osu and to grab it is going to take elte D. Next Saturday will tell us if M is a competitor for the crown or an also ran.

The IU first half was on Minter. My take is that he was unprepared for the efficient short passing game where Bazalac was getting the ball out in 2 counts and 6y per passing play because the defense was playing off the receivers by that amount. It appeared that Minter schemed for Bazalac to go intermediate to long - Actually IU's MO as demonstrated in their first 4 games. Allen changed tendencies and was successful as if he had Minter's battle plans.

When Minter wanted to get the D in C1 man, the players looked confused. Particularly the LBs that play a key role in that coverage. I think that deficiency is systemic in that it wasn'r repped in game week prep - error on MInter's part.

The D did settle into C1 man and Bazalac, dropping back to hit even the the mid zone in 3 and 4 counts got hammered. Punt, punt, punt in the second half. No sustained drives. O points. That gets lost in the criticism of the first half.