Michigan 27, Iowa 14, Post Game Discussion.

[Hannibal]

Iowa's offense has been functional the past two weeks. That's all that they need -- the ability to score 10-13 points on offense and sustain just a few drives. They can beat literally anyone in the conference this year with that formula.

[iam416]

I think of "functional" as something more than scoring 10-13 points. Scoring 10-13 points is god-fucking-awful to me. But, "functional" is a broad and subjective term. And 604 yards against NEVADA and Rutgers COMBINED ain't good. It's bad. Very bad.

They can beat literally anyone in the conference this year with that formula.

Fuck sandbagging on this shit. If Iowa scores 10 against Ohio State they will get destroyed. DE-STROYED. And that game is coming up soon so it won't even be a hypothetical. It's a prediction w/ an outcome soon to be known.

[Mike]

I’ve seen the spread anywhere from Michigan -4 to -7.5. Definitely feels like it’ll be tighter that initially thought. My concern is JJ still doesn’t take great care of the ball and waits too long in the pocket. If he pulls some crap on a few plays like he did yesterday (fumbles and a horrible decision to force one at the goal line), Iowa will get the turnovers and likely turn them into points. That’s their only hope. If Michigan just plays a clean game there shouldn’t be much to worry about.

[lineygoblue]

If he pulls some crap on a few plays like he did yesterday (fumbles and a horrible decision to force one at the goal line), Iowa will get the turnovers and likely turn them into points. That’s their only hope.

That's Kirk Ferentz to a tee. They're completely satisfied to sit back, keep the score close, and wait for mistakes to capitalize on. Ferentz has never been a gunslinger. He's very patient and almost plays a 'rope a dope' style of football. If he gets into the 4th quarter within a TD, he's going to be a very happy coach.

[Tom W]

Yeah, as the ever optimistic Hanni stated above, the Maryland game might have been the equivalent of last year's Rutgers game. That's what happens when you schedule patsies in the non-conference. There are obvious fixes needed, and some them will be addressed this week.

But, of course, Kinnick has that mystique that makes people think that M is Flight 19 heading into the Bermuda Triangle. Whatever. This is a below average Iowa team and it will show next week.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If Michigan just plays a clean game there shouldn’t be much to worry about.

How does Harbaugh assure that happens? He imbues his OCs with the need to keep things simple for McCarthy. The result is an overly conservative offensive game plan that allows Iowa to win by scoring these ridiculously low number of points, shutting down whatever M does best on offense and keeping the game close.

I can guarantee you that Harbaugh will do his part to make Ferentz's job a lot easier. He'll muzzle M's potentially explosive offense made up of the best skill players that have taken the field for M in a long time. JJ v. Maryland probably made Harbaugh trust him less to not do something "weird" in the circumstance he's going to placed in v. Iowa's top 5 defense nationally, on the road and at Kinnick.

[Mike]

Michigan is officially -10.5. That seems more like it.

[iam416]

Yeah, that's at least a number that is within the conceivable universe of outcomes. -2.5 was not.

[WM Wolverine]

M last won at Iowa in 2005?

[Tom W]

Yeah- a couple of flukes, a few wins in A2 and a handful of off the schedule years. It's not THAT ominous and it probably just means that M is overdue for beating them there.

[Hannibal]

I'll take Iowa with the 10.5 points. It's not a no-brainer but I don't expect us to cover.

[Jeff Buchanan]

A nicely balanced and reasonable assessment of the Maryland game in BonxBlue's Best and Worst series. Points out McCarthy had a statistically strong game v. a competent D. OTH, he made sophomoric errors on his reads, consistently overthrew open receivers on deep balls and generally was not finishing drives, a skill set JH values. The article speculates that Harbaugh might have told him not to run because if he gets injured McNamara isn't avaliable. Sounds about right.

I still hold JJ will either be restrained by coaches and play calling or doubt will get in his head v. Iowa. That will hold the score down, that and a top 5 Iowa D.

Play confident, disciplined and not wreckless football, limit mistakes and M will be fine. There will be a pattern one way or the other by half time.

[lineygoblue]

One thing that will be different about this game as opposed to Maryland will be the QB. Petrus is John Navarre Year 3 edition. He is not a threat to run consistently and hurt the opponent with his feet, so containment should be a bit easier this week. I'd expect to see a few more up the middle blitzes from Michigan in passing situations.

Ferentz is no fool. He knows that Harbaugh wants to preserve JJ, and therefore will cut back on plays that expose JJ to big hits. We'll see a highly vanilla passing attack, and a determined effort to establish the run. Iowa will sell out to stop the run, and force JJ into uncomfortable throws. Ferentz wants JJ to play like a sophomore again.

I think M wins, but by no more than a TD. I also think Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt will spend the entire game on their knees, begging for an Iowa win.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Took a close look at Harbaugh's noon presser remarks. No update on All, NHG or Edwards. In a Monday evening comment he implied Edward's is probable for Iowa.

He was asked about his defense playing soft coverages. Referenced Tua's impact and the D pressure schemes getting "behind him." Said, a lot to learn and clean up. Missed calls at the line, not getting leverage.

Mgo's Brian Cook minced no words in his criticism of LB play and that fits JH's comment and what he implied by them. My take is that Minter's scheme was appropriate given Tua and his tall, athletic receivers - the two of them had 24y between them. The tradeoff was cumulative run yardage but aside from the late TD the Terps managed just 17 points and 350 some yards. Against that offense, pretty good day.

Iowa, as Linesman points out, is going to present a different set of circumstances. Minter can afford a lot of cover zero and pressure fronts against Ferentz's O that he could not afford with Tua.

With JJ being restrained to a degree and on the road, I'm still thinking M scores in the low 20s. Iowa gets a FG and an M miscue either gets their D 7 points or sets up the O on a short field. Still at 24 - 13 as your final.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Alex Drain's UFR Defense is up. It explains a lot regarding Maryland's yardage, frustrating long drives where M wasn't able to get off the field and last TD drive where M;s D made John Navarree III look like Dan Marino. Some key points:

• LB's make a lot of mistakes in the run D and containment that reflects their inexperience. Colson had his share but he makes up for it with speed and agility.
• The last Maryland TD wasn't because Minter had put in a prevent D. The D calls/sets were correct, the players didn't make plays and in the case of the CBs playing soft that's on them misreading the play as it developed. Too many opportunities to end the game on that last Maryland drive missed by mistakes in coverage. Two 3rd and longs and one 4th and long where the QB scrambled for a 23 yard gain and first down. The TE seam route for a TD was a complete coverage bust.
• For Iowa: Do the same things with the DTs. Minter was having them allow Maryland's OL get passed them to the second level. Meanwhile, surprise S, CB and LB blitzes went through the gaps created by this approach (M's Ravens like Amoeba D). Don't over-do this. It becomes stale.
• Mazi Smith is operating at a Mike Martin level of getting off the line. He was getting pressure himself on Tua, or, in pursuit, forcing Tua into tackle lanes. M won't face a slippry QB like that again and Drain pointed out that many potential TFL's, important 3rd and 4th down stops and sacks were wiped out by officials not pulling the flag on holding or egregious PI - he points out, it went both ways and evened out.