Michigan 34, Maryland 27, Post Game Discussion.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Spread opened at -15.5 and quickly moved to 16.5.

There's a lot to be encouraged about and some concerns. How will McCarthy respond to the pressure he's going to get from Maryland through the right side of the OL. Who's going to back him up. M's D has had one sack. What kind of conservative approach will Harbaugh open conference play with - I don't like M's tendency to let inferior teams hang around. TBC, the offense is solid and the D is decent across all units. Offenses have been getting the ball out quickly with little success doing that given Jesse Minter's approach to the short passing game. Also decent. Minter has been playing (practicing I should say) a lot of cover 1 and cover zero, man coverage. M will check out of that aggressive D but I expect the Maryland offense to challenge M's CBs if they show it then don't drop somebody. Watch for Maryland trying to get mismatches with their WR's on an M LB.

I could see a low scoring outcome especially if JH turtles but by the numbers M should win something like 41-24.

[lineygoblue]

MLive's account of the Maryland v SMU game.

https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/2022/09/next-up-for-michigan-big-ten-opener-against-undefeated-maryland.html?utm_campaign=wolverines_sf&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR25aWNm_ichzIfYuXTYTro3C56R-_SlEydXh4cVHhMILpZ1MmTOYBEcNzE

[lineygoblue]

I could see a low scoring outcome especially if JH turtles but by the numbers M should win something like 41-24

I think its even more likely that M will turtle, as you describe it, due to McNamara not being available. JJ will likely be told not to run as much, and to get rid of the ball quickly. They'll want to minimize hits on him to keep him upright.

I think the Terps will over commit to stopping Corum, and force McCarthy to throw. In actual passing situations, I'm concerned about the rush/blitz on the right side. Maryland will have seen that Michigan has weakness there.

Defensively, the "D" better have their running shoes on, and not play for the big hit. Just get pressure, and make good tackles on Tua 2.0. He's going to be a problem.

I want to read up a bit more on the Terps before I give my fearless prediction. I doubt they'll be able to upset Michigan with their defense, but that offense is a concern.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!!!!! 52 Turtles 28

[Jeff Buchanan]

HARBAUGH!!!!!! 52 Turtles 28

M's score is too high, Twatwaffle. Listen to Liney and me. Harbaugh is going to play it safe. That's who he is. You should know this. He'll build a 2 or 3 score lead and try to sit on it. Fans will be frustrated with 3rd and long fails ala the Mike DeBord offense. If he's not careful, he'll script a much closer game than it should be. I think M separates and wins but the pucker factor will be present given that M fandom is spoiled from the 3 shit opponents M faced.

[THE_WIZARD_]

The turtles D is not great so early it will be a track meet.

52-28

shaddup

[lineygoblue]

I think Jeff has nailed it. Harbaugh knows that for the next few weeks, (until Cade returns) Michigan will only go as far as JJ takes them. So, the offensive game plan will be to not put him in danger. They'll hammer the run game, even though the Terps will be 100% committed to stopping it. Whenever a pass play is called, its likely going to have a roll-out, sprint out, option type look to it. I doubt that they'll ask JJ to throw from the pocket very often, and he'll be instructed to get down/out of bounds when a play is over. The offense will be one play away from a Bowman/Warren/Orji QB stint. Harbaugh is going to minimize those possibilities.

Defensively, we've seen Michigan dominate, but the opposition hasn't challenged them, unless you count garbage time with Hawaii and CSU. Tua 2.0 WILL present problems for the defense, that they haven't seen yet. If they try loading up to get 'big' hits, they're likely to be tackling air. They have to pursue, contain, wrap, and tackle. Very fundamental stuff that we've seen Michigan fail on in the past, even when they are good.

I don't think the Terps have the defense to lock down Michigan's offense, so I don't see an upset happening. But, along with Jeff, I can see a close game with a lot of grumbling in the stands with people expecting a blowout, but witnessing a closer and more uncomfortable game than anticipated. This game may go undecided into the 4th quarter. It could be a Michigan special teams play that makes the difference. Michigan will have the edge in punting, FG kicking and punt/kickoff returning, so that may be the decider.

[iam416]

Blowout. 45-17. Something like. Probably worse.

HARBAUGH!!!!! knows that he can't win the B10 or national title unless JJ takes the next step. He knows he's ready. And he knows he has the best offensive supporting cast in the country to help him.

This will not be close.

[lineygoblue]

And he knows he has the best offensive supporting cast in the country to help him.

You might have had me until you got here.

Have you paid any attention to what Georgia and Alabama are doing? Alabama probably has the most impressive win of the year so far in Texas, where they had every valid excuse to fold their tent and go home. Instead, their offense went to work against a tough and motivated opponent, and slammed the door on them. And please... I know you watched Georgia maul Michigan just a few months ago. They haven't missed a step. Finally, we all know that Michigan isn't the best offense in the Big Ten. Shoot, they might only be the 3rd best offense in the BTE, seeing what PSU did to AwBarn on the road yesterday.

You are in mid-season sandbagging form already.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Blowout. 45-17. Something like. Probably worse.

HARBAUGH!!!!! knows that he can't win the B10 or national title unless JJ takes the next step. He knows he's ready. And he knows he has the best offensive supporting cast in the country to help him.

This will not be close.

Sure, we'd all like to see this. I'd love to see the offense go for it. But then there is this leash thing JH has a habit of putting on his greyhound. I'd give your predicted outcome or the one Liney and I are hanging our hats on a 50/50 shot of turning into reality.

A potential determinant on the final outcome is the half time score. My bet is that M will score less than 30 in the first half and the 1/2 time OU will be in the neighborhood of 40. If Maryland's offense is tuned in, they'll score somewhere between 17 and 24 points. Maryland scoring at the upper end will make M fans and the coaches going into halftime uncomfortable.

Turtle time for JH and a cautious, restrained offense and defense in the second half that plays to M's D and STs. Final:

41-24

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[Hannibal]

Why is the line only 16.5 for this one? What do the bettors know that we don’t? Harbaugh hasn’t beaten the Turtle by less than 21 yet.

[THE_WIZARD_]

The Snapping Turtles can score.

[Tom W]

Michigan recognizes that the Exhibition Season is over. Talent is not sandbagging here. Michigan will smash the turtles.

[iam416]

Correct