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Like your post, Linesman ..... up to the point where you commit yourself to ...."but osu will prevail."
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Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year. -
I don't like that either, Jeff.
But do you realize how long its been since Michigan won in Columbus?
Most of the guys playing in this year's game were not alive the last time Michigan won there, unless they are 22-23 years old. There are a whole generation of Ohioans who do not know what its like to see Michigan win in Columbus. They probably think its impossible.
Yes, I know. 2016 should have been a win. Everyone knows that."The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, .. I'd worn them for weeks, and they needed the air"Comment
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But do YOU realize ....." past performance does not predict future success or failure."
TBH, I'm not ready to predict an M win but I'm not caving to the outcome that they will lose. By game day, there will be no fancy stats that are going to predict an M win so, those that are going to do that are going to find themselves in an objectively unsupportable fantasy land. Until M get's through Illinois without season ending injuries to key players, until I see something post osu or M games next Saturday or during game week that moves my needle, I'm keeping my predictions to myself.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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Yes, you've been trying to teach me that all season. I'm trying my best to get away from that way of thinking.But do YOU realize ....." past performance does not predict future success or failure."
Agreed on waiting until next week."The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, .. I'd worn them for weeks, and they needed the air"Comment
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I found this interesting - it's ESPN reporters CFP berth predictions after week 11 games. It's probably not worth the paper it's printed on but after week 11 that every ESPN reporter has Michigan and osu in the play-offs apparently regardless of who wins The Game and apparently assuming whoever loses its a close loss.
It also has to assume TCU wins out and bumps any 1 or 2 loss SEC team that faces UGA (the CFP Committee SEC bias not rearing it's head). It appears the prognosticators listed here also believe a #2/3 match-up between osu and M, a play-in of sorts, to end the regular season will produce two teams worthy of CFP berths over a SEC CCG game between and undefeated #1 SEC team and a ? loss #?? SEC team.
Bill Connelly runs the S&P+ analytics - considered the king of fancy stats by some. I give his picks some cred. Whatever, fun to see M in November, getting some natty hype. It's been a long, long time.
CFP.jpgMission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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I'd still like to know why UGA v TN is not an 'elimination' game the same way osu v M is."The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, .. I'd worn them for weeks, and they needed the air"Comment
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Because Tennessee has a much better resume than Michigan if they both end up 11-1.Comment
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You can only tell Liney that like 35 times and still not get through to him.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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I dunno that UConn win is looking better now...Shut the fuck up Donny!Comment
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Goodnight you Princes of Maine, you Kings of New England....Comment
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For the love of Pete...and me too...STFU.Shut the fuck up Donny!Comment
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TWO Michigan opponents reached bowl eligibility this week!Originally posted by THE_WIZARD_ View PostComment
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HARBAUGH!!!!!!!Shut the fuck up Donny!Comment
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This is an mgo post that links to Space Coyote's twitter account where he delves into QB to receiver throws and what makes them work or not .......https://mgoblog.com/diaries/art-deep-ball
Key points:
Receivers skill levels break down in a typical bell curve distribution between Just Guys, Decent Players, and Dudes. M's receivers are Decent Players, osu has Dudes. By the eyeball test, I can clearly see the difference between osu's receiver room and M's. M's receivers are not bad. They do some things well and some things not so well - typical Decent Players that the coaches work with and have to work around with play calls and routes. For example, Cornelius Johnson is a boarder line Dude. His drawback is he has trouble tracking the ball on go routes. Modify the Go Route so that CJ arcs toward the center of the field around 40y out from the LOS (assumes C1 or C0, press man coverage. Don't turn into the S in C1 or C2 and QB don't get sucked into a throw with that coverage. (see the article on Route trees I linked below).
JJ is not a bad QB. He's a first year starter. Is he making perfect pre and post snap reads. Probably not. I got from the twitter feed that this isn't about arm punts, isn't about not enough arc and too flat. It's about reps and getting good at having the QB and his target receiver on the same page - in sync. osu spends a ton of practice time in the passing game and getting QB and receives in sync. They spend less time on the run game. M is opposite that. You can see the results in the different offenses they both run.
From another Diary entry from DragonChild he does some interesting math. I think it has application in understanding M's long ball issues and passing issues in general. Roman WIlson runs a 4.4, 40. He's going to consistently run a 40y Go route in 4.4s. For the ball to get from snap to WIlson's hands, the timing of that process has to be 4.4s. If the timing is off 0.1s the ball will be almost a full yard out of WIlson's reach when it gets to him. DragonChild surmises:
This requires clockwork precision, along with seeing your receivers run in your sleep. But most of all, it limits his time in the pocket.
The "4.4" is fixed by Wilson's speed. So every tick spent in the pocket, the faster the ball has to be thrown to make up for it. If JJ takes three seconds to get the ball out, it needs to arrive within the remaining 1.4 -- it's gonna need some zip. On the other hand, if you want a nice pretty moonball with three seconds of hangtime instead, the ball needs to be out in 1.4 seconds. That includes snap, setting feet, and forming up! In other words, like we saw McSorley do it, the ball needs to be out almost instantly. That requires a very high level of confidence in the pre-snap read and many months building QB-WR rapport. It took Jake Rudock and Cade McNamara most of a season to get there. In the above clip, McSorley was a second-year starter and Hamilton was a senior. McCarthy is a first-year starter recently recovered from surgery. He hasn't had the luxury of throwing moonballs to his receivers all day.
TIFIW
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...the-route-treeLast edited by Jeff Buchanan; November 15, 2022, 02:39 PM.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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The WR quality is Ohio State's big advantage. And that's with JSN -- a first round pick -- out. Ronnie Bell is the only guy who'd see the field for Ohio State, and he wouldn't be a top 2 guy. That is what it is.
Stroud and JJ are way more comparable OVERALL. Stroud is considerably more accurate (IMO) and considerably more willing to throw into tight coverages. That's why he's an NFL first round pick. HOWEVER, if his first, second and third reads are gone then it's a nightmare. JJ is fine in the shorter passing game (he hits that wide open delayed TE drag every time!). He's not so great at throwing into tight windows downfield. Not yet. That's why he's not an NFL first round pick AT THE MOMENT. He does, however, have the ability to save plays with his legs and he defaults to that fairly quickly -- which is good, that's his strength.
But, look, we all know Ohio State's passing game is way more of a threat. And we all know Corum is way more of a threat than whoever the fuck Ohio State can patch together for The Game.
On the other side of the ball, it's just a huge problem trying to find any sort of comparable to figure out how the defenses will do. The offense in the B10 is sooooooo bad that it's just impossible (IMO). Ohio State has, at least, played some teams that are focused on running the ball. Now, they don't do it anywhere near as good as M. At all. But M has not seen a passing game remotely close to OSU's. So, it's just really hard to asses.
What I'll say is that of he 4 units playing in the game (Off, Def for each team), the unit that is the most improved from 2021, by a longshot, is the Ohio State defense. The other 3 units are looking at much smaller improvements. The Ohio State defense is vastly better. Now, that's mostly because it was the biggest steaming pile of shit defense I've ever seen Ohio State put on the field, and that includes the 2013 debacle. So, they may not be a good defense, but they're not "you should be imprisoned for fielding this shit" bad.
Now, whether the OSU defensive improvement and venue switch can make up 15 points? -- I doubt it. But, it's at least a shot.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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