Michigan Football - 2024 Season.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Decent roster will return - I think McCarthy beats out McNamara but it won't be by a wide margin. Still, it's pretty clear the separation between elite teams and good ones is large. I saw something before the OB that showed a composite grade based on recruiting scores that were compiled for the current 2 deep rosters of the 4 CFP teams. UGA and Alabama were just miles ahead of the rest of the CFB teams along with wide margins between UGA and Alabama over M and Cinci. I don't see how the field is going to get leveled by some combo of realignment, rules for and the process of paying players and an expanded and reformatted CFB play-off. I'd certainly like to see a way to make the current top tier of CFB teams (however that might be objectively determined) be separated from the rest into two leagues where both have something to play for.

The more consequential issue for 2022 right now is keeping the current coaching staff in place. Only rumors and speculation about Harbaugh but he's got some leverage and Tucker is making stupid money in EL. We'll see.

[froot loops]

Soon what Tucker is making will be the average for any team with designs on competing. College head coaches are going to start creeping towards how NFL quarterbacks are paid. That means the money they get are chance and circumstance than purely who has the most titles.

[iam416]

UAT and Georgia were barely ahead of Ohio State in composite talent. FYI.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Then NICK!!!! and KIRBY!!! >>>> HCRD!!!!

[iam416]

Obviously

[Jeff Buchanan]

UAT and Georgia were barely ahead of Ohio State in composite talent. FYI.

Right. I never meant to imply that osu wasn't elite or damn close to it. Composite scores demonstrated the potential. Alabama and UGA delivered on that potential. osu didn't ...... not this season and you've made it clear why and I mostly agree. They will get things fixed and reach or exceed potential in 2022..... if day shaves that silly beard he's been trying to grow and HARBAUGH!!! doesn't invade the shoe and pull out a victory.

[Hannibal]

We will be favored in 11 games next season. It’s a highly favorable schedule. Iowa will be our toughest non-OSU game since we play them at Kinnick and we suck there. I expect us to be a touchdown dog against OSU.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the offense. OL should be excellent, assuming Moore can actually coach and the transfer in guy can fit in immediately. Defense might be pretty meh. We got exposed against Georgia pretty badly. Lots of talent holes on that side of the ball. Boy would it be nice to have Ojabo for another year, but I don’t see him staying.

[iam416]

Anything worse than 11-1 would be a total disappointment for HARBAUGH!!!! with that schedule. They'll be better than every team they play, but you have to allow for the possibility of an upset. But only one.

[lineygoblue]

A site called "fansided" has Michigan going 9-3 next season, losing at Iowa, and at home to MSU, before losing in Columbus. I'd pretty much agree although I think they have a better chance of losing to Penn State than MSU at home. But, they could lose to both as well.

Michigan doesn't win at Kinnick, and that's early enough in the season to be played at night, so write that loss in ink. The Billion Dollar Coach cannot lose to Michigan, even if he tries. PSU has a (6th?) year QB coming back in Clifford. And of course, CRD will finally get to lay 100 on Harbaugh for his insipid remarks, amongst other things.

9-3 ceiling, with a good possibility of 8-4. McCarthy will probably be the starter at some point, if not right from the beginning. Outback/Citrus/Gator bound.

https://fansided.com/2022/01/01/michigan-football-schedule-2022-predictions/

[Tom W]

Sparty is not winning in Ann Arbor in 2022.
Michigan is not going to go 8-4 or even 9-3.

[lineygoblue]

You may be right, Tom. Sparty will be missing both of the guys who did the most damage this season.

And I predicted 6-6 with a ceiling of 8-4 in 2021. I missed that by a long shot. I'm ok with that.

If they can patch the holes on defense, and coach up the young guys on offense, there's a decent possibility of them going into C-bus at 11-0. Kinnick at night is going to be tough, and Iowa will have an axe to grind.

I'm not as concerned for the offense. The running game is set with Corum and Edwards. Passing with McCarthy and a whole slew of WR's is going to be excellent. Ronnie Bell is going to be back. That's huge. The OL could be as good as this year's unit. They'll score points.

[lineygoblue]

TE Erick All and DL Taylor Upshaw will both return to Michigan in 2022 for their senior years. Hutch has hired an agent.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sp...nt/9070131002/

I HOPE the Lions overlook Hutch. PLEASE. There must be an obscure CB at Southwest Arizona Teacher's College that deserves the Lions first pick ....

[Mike]

Next year's floor is 10 wins. Anything less would be a catastrophic failure. I'm not even that concerned about Iowa. Their offense is trash and even though there's always the possibility of getting "Kinicked", I just don't think they have the talent to keep up. The non-con schedule is an embarrassment that would make Bill Snyder blush.

It's worth noting that the current schedule will get shuffled a little with the MSU game shifting to Ann Arbor. A finalized version should be released soon. That means we'll be picking up another road game. Hopefully, they just flip Maryland or Illinois to a road game and call it a day.

Wisconsin drops off the schedule and we have Nebraska, PSU, and MSU at home. Last I checked PSU still employs James Franklin so I'm not concerned at all playing them at home with a competent team. Harbaugh's only losses to them have been his two worst teams in Happy Valley and the 2020 debacle season. As long as Michigan is good, that game isn't a concern of mine and Michigan will be good next year.

Nebraska will be breaking in a new QB. Hard to tell what to make of them. They were better than their record this year but 3-9 (1-8).... playing in AA... Gotta figure that's a W unless they catch lighting in a bottle with a QB transfer of something.

MSU is always a problem but I gotta imagine they regress a bit from 11-2. No Doak Walker winning RB and Michigan will be looking for revenge at home. I think Michigan will win but I'll call it a toss-up for argument's sake.

The rest: You have the annual games with Maryland, Indiana, Rutgers, and now Illinois from the West. Not much to be concerned about there.

Even if they lost to BOTH Iowa and MSU, they should be 9-2 going into OSU. I think they at least split those games. Maybe they win both but get upset along the way by someone else. But I believe they'll be 10-1 or better going into Columbus.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I believe they'll be 10-1 or better going into Columbus.

I can mostly agree with this with a few caveats. There's a blueprint out there to exploit LB weaknesses in Macdonald's D that aren't going away. They got papered over v. every team except MSU in the regular season and UGA in the CFP because Hutchinson and Ojabo at DE were in the opponent's backfield like UGA's were in M's ..... IOW, the UGA offense erased those two DEs. Regular season foes (except MSU to an extent and that was fluky) didn't do that. The team feasted on both sides of the ball because M's D, as a unit, was really good.

M's LBs had cleanup duty during the regular season games. You saw how M's D, specifically the LBs, did when they faced the UGA offense - a good but not elite O that had Macdonald's number. Not pretty

The 2022 team will erase one of them, probably 2. So, then what? That changes the dynamic of the D and the interplay with the offense that Harbaugh enjoys becasue of it. I suspect MM is going to have to get better LB play. This seasons 2 deep was OK. There are some studs coming in to play that position but they are not likely to be ready for prime time by the fall.

I remain concerned about coaching staff stability. I've already posted why.

A couple of wild cards with a pretty big impact. I think MM has turned out to be a very good DC and has an NFL developed brain to design good baseline defenses that can be opponent adjusted and the ability to communicate to the players how to run it. But we won't know how good it is until we see it on the field. Unanswered questions include can the team punch above it's weight like it did in 2021? That team seemed really tight and had a ton of energy. Is that going to return in 2022? It pretty much has to to avoid a let down and get to 10-1 before going into c-bus. .

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is a very well thought out perspective on why it's hard for teams such as Michigan, and those teams in Michigan's roster talent level cohort, to win an NC. From, and this pearl is buried at mgoboard:

Well...CFB today is wildly unbalanced in talent distribution, much more so than at any time in history.

We all know this in a vague way. But when you look at the numbers...you can see that the schools in Michigan's talent cohort have almost no chance of winning a national championship.

As discussed elsewhere just yesterday.... This year four teams (Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, OSU) are signing 50% of the top 50 recruits.

If you go back 20 years, the top 50 were scattered among 23 schools, with no school having more than 2. This year Georgia (no. 3 ranked class) will sign 8 top 50 players. Michigan (no. 9 class) has 1 top 50 player.

The very top talent was much more evenly distributed a generation ago. Top 50/100 players were much more likely to stay in their region, etc. It was not possible to assemble the talent concentrations that we now see at Alabama, Georgia, OSU, and soon Texas A&M.

Michigan has the no. 9 class this year, which is an excellent result. Michigan under Harbaugh is perhaps top 8-12 range in roster talent, judged on average over the last 5-year cycle (7th, 8th, 11tth, 17th, 15th). So the no. 9 class this year fits in the range that Harbaugh has gotten.

20 years ago, the gap between the no. 8-12 roster and the no. 1-2 roster was close enough that coaching, development, certain guys overperforming their recruiting rankings, etc., etc., could mean that the no. 10-12 roster talent school could win a national championship.

That is not possible anymore, given that the top 3 or 4 have really distanced themselves by a huge margin from the no. 8-12 cohort (where Michigan has been under Harbaugh).

The '21 Michigan team was incredible. Coaches did a tremendous job overall. We had a Heisman finalist, We had the most steady QB play of the Harbaugh era. We had a wildly entertaining set of RBs. We had excellent leadership from several seniors. We had a team that seemed to really pull together and do super fun stuff (jump around at Wisconsin etc.).

This is the sort of team that could have won a national CC in an earlier era where talent was not so concentrated in the top 3 or 4 schools.

Yeah, I know that Michigan just beat OSU--one of the roster talent top 3--by a comfortable margin. But...the reality of CFB now is that a team like the '21 Michigan team has an impossible path--beat the no. 3 (OSU), then no. 2 (Georgia), and then no. 1 (Alabama) most talented rosters in an era when those schools have three/four times as many top 50 or top 100 players...

So...it is not even fair to call a national CC a longshot... It is more 'shoot the moon' territory. Maybe it could become a longshot if Michigan could move from the 8-12 to the 5-8 recruiting range (and have a Heisman finalist QB--maybe JJ?)... That is how Clemson and LSU won their national championships...