Michigan v. Georgia, Orange Bowl, Miami FL, Friday, 12/31/21, 7:30pm, ESPN/ESPN Video

[Mike]

He still may be able to join the team if he's asymptomatic and gets a negative test.

[Cody_Russell]

Rumors Dax Hill didn't make the trip - Covid

Ugh, hope not. Still some time to test negative and make it to the game. That happened for Daniels and Pickens on Georgia.
Considering what's happening in all of the other sports leagues, it's surprising to me that we didn't hear about more of this COVID related news.

I actually thought about that last night after watching this M bowl practice video. #30 Dax Hill was the only big name I didn't see practice.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Fuckin' BS

[Hannibal]

I doubt that he will be in even if he meets the CDC guidelines. Michigan is particularly bad when it comes to Corona Karens. These are the retards who shutdown our greatest basketball season in over 25 years for a few weeks last year because somebody on the swim team tested positive.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Here's the scenario that M probably faced with Dax:

(1) He was either noted to have or reported he had COVID symptoms (runny nose, sore throat, dry cough, etc which I am sure all the players know to report any symptoms on a long list of them).

(2) He was exposed.

As for (1) Let's say this report was received from Hill 24h prior to M's departure to Miami. He was probably tested when he reported symptoms and the result was likely negative (incubation period). Typically, a good testing protocol is days 1, 3, 5 using a PCR test on day 5. Experts are learning that Omicron, in particular, Delta to a lesser extent will produce a positive rapid AB result in 2d. That's because in vitro and in vivo viral growth is much faster than Delta, Delta faster than Alpha. Moreover, with Omicron, you're no longer infective after 5d (that hypothesis is widely debated)

If he tests negative on day 5 and he is judged fit to play by medical staff, even mild URI symptoms would not preclude him from playing, he'll be in Miami in plenty of time to play on Friday night.

As for (2) as I understand the new CDC guidelines which M may or may not be following but let's assume they are, exposure with symptoms present the default is to (1). If he was exposed and did not have symptoms, while the CDC guidelines say no quarantine necessary but where a mask - the smart thing to do in this circumstance would be to keep him back in AA, test at 5d, if negative he joins the team in Miami

M needs him to play for all the reasons in the posts pertaining to that above.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm legitimately worried about the OB being played. Not because of the COVID surge but because COVID Karens within Miami-Dade Co. - a hot bed of D's - will pressure the Mayor's office to cancel it on the basis that it's bad PR to support large congregate settings right now.

So far there's no talk of that leaking out by I imagine it's being discussed. Now, the OB is a private business and FL law prevents local governments from ordering much of anything including shuttering businesses. But there are always workarounds or the Orange Bowl could just be closed.

I also can't imagine that the costs of closing the OB isn't also being considered. You may be able to trace the cause of a local bump in new cases or hospitalizations to the OB if the game is played but one has to ask, so what. Every once in a while I'll see a sensible piece written on living with the virus or whatever but it keeps getting back paged with the new cause for worry being over-worked hospital staff. You saw my figures from Jackson Memorial, right? Basically, the COVID + normal patient load on that hospital is at about 50% or less of capacity depending on what measure you're looking at.

I'd say if there's no cancellation (not including a forfeit by either team due to COVID and that's another issue altogether), the game will get played. Too hard to unwind everything and it's possible we may have already passed that point.

[Mike]

There is virtually no chance the game is canceled. There is a real possibility that individual players may not be available and I hope that doesn’t happen.

We’re within 49 hours of kickoff. Honestly, they shouldn’t test any asymptomatic players at this point.

[Obi-Jon]

Only Georgia players. Twice a day.

[Mike]

Correct. And after we send over a bunch of Covid positive hookers to the Georgia hotel.

[CGVT]

There won't be a positive test from any GA player. Those fuckers could have a fever of 103 and be coughing up a lung and not test positive.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Oh the horror...players playing with a cold....whoa...

[Cody_Russell]

So great, that tells us nothing about Dax Hill.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Over the last week, I've seen a number of analyses of this game. The two things that are repeated over and over is: (1) M can't play in 3rd and 7 land. (2) Play to make Stetson Bennett beat you. IOW stop the run.

I don't know if this is a duh moment or not - I tend to think it is and sort of obvious when you look at these two teams. I think M's offensive efficiency in this game will be largely determined by M being able to deal with specific UGA players that do this really well:

The most fearsome component (of UGA's D) though is their zone blitz packages in which Davis will slant and stunt across gaps and get replaced by one or both of Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean on inside blitzes. Georgia will rush the passer in groups of four and have six different defenders with three sacks or more on the year. It’s not a team who will just whip you with a pure Edge like Michigan often does, their simulated/creeper (inside) blitzes are the name of the game.

Because M's OL strength rests with the guards, I'd expect Kirby to see what he gets inside. Failing that he'll adjust to harass Hays throwing some CB and S blitzes from the edges in - something you don't see UGA doing much (not on film) - they haven't had to. They might pull that change-up v. M

Recall that Mel Tucker was UGA's DC before he became MSU's HC. MSU ran this kind of inside and outside zone blitz scheme v. M in 2021 so Josh Gattis has seen it - he also did a terrible job in countering what MSU was doing. The mgo UFR of this game illustrates Tucker got a lot RPS +1s v. M's offense at key points in the game. The missing counter that Gattis should have been calling was play-action on first and second down to MSU selling out to stop M's run game - which they did effectively. You can expect UGA to do the same and look similar to MSU's D just more talented up front (not on the back end so, yeah, throw more PA in this game).

The matchup between Eric All and Shoonmaker as blocking TEs to pick these zone blitzes up is crucial. UGA's DEs/LBs are going to get past Hayes and Vastardis (not Keegan or Zinter) enough to make Cade's life miserable. If Cade has time though, he's going to have open receivers in the areas vacated by Kirby's sell out to stop the run, zone blitz package. M has to move the chains efficiently and score points keeping ahead of UGA and making them play from behind. That's why the TEs and RBs HAVE to pick up UGA's blitzing.

UGA's O is not explosive (unless Pickens plays and is in 2019 form). They just want to grind you to dust. Take that away from them - something M's D is probably capable of doing in Alabama style (if Dax is in the mix to protect the edges) and they'll struggle - Bennett tends to make game changing mistakes when the game is in his hands and he's getting pressure. Bama had two of those. M needs a couple too.

[Jeff Buchanan]

So great, that tells us nothing about Dax Hill.

Yes it does. He's with the team in Miami. If he tests negative today (day 5), he'll play.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Re my post at the top of the page ...... I found it instructive to look at M's offense v. MSU in the UFR. The first half of it deals with Cade's reads and passing performance which was were both excellent. Skip that and scroll down to the run game analysis where Gattis takes a hit for his play calling. It's all right there in living color. DON"T DO THIS!!!

https://www.mgoblog.com/content/upon-further-review-2021-offense-vs-msu