Michigan v. Georgia, Orange Bowl, Miami FL, Friday, 12/31/21, 7:30pm, ESPN/ESPN Video

[Jeff Buchanan]

Stolen from mgoboards:

About 70% of spread bets and 80% of money line bets are on Michigan. This was reversed for the Ohio State game.


Typically you want the money to be on your opponent. Logic being, Vegas knows more than the average bettor.


It is still early, most of the money will likely be bet on the day of the game. Hopefully it turns around and Vegas shows they at least want to even up the money.


Of course this has no real impact on the game, but it’s an interesting predictor. Go Blue!

Also of note, Stub Hub ticket prices are coming down by substantial amounts. A stub Hub ticket in the lower section corner of the field and right next to a section of M's allotted game ticket share was selling for $260. With fees, it's now below the face value of tickets bought through M's athletic department ($350)

[iam416]

That poster is correct. Against Ohio State, the line opened at 4.5 or so. It got up to 6.5, but it sort of settled there. And the money was always on Ohio State. As I've said repeatedly, Vegas doesn't really need to middle games -- they need good lines. They trust their lines and their numbers over the general public ALL FUCKING DAY. And they can afford to because they traffic in such high volume that it works to their advantage.

That's the one thing that people repeatedly get wrong -- that the line is just a general public 50/50 number. It's really not. What Vegas is most concerned with is not moving a line to appease the general public but rather setting a good number to avoid getting killed at the wire by huge "sharp" money plays.

Against Ohio State, they thought M was the better bet, and the models showed it. Against Georgia, they think Georgia is the better bet. M is getting almost 80% of the action and the number is still holdinga at 7.5, and for the gamblers amongst us, 7.5 is a huge number. Going from 7 to 7.5 is a huge jump. With that kind of money on M at 7.5 I would have guessed it comes down to 7. But, it's sticking at 7.5 -- basically, Vegas is begging people to bet on M. And they are.

Again, taking this things in isolataion is pointless -- Vegas loses a lot. It's a macro-volume play for them.

In the other game, they actually think UAT-UC will be closer than the general public thinks. Right now, it's 13.5 and the public is backing UAT at 70%. So, it'd make sense to go to 14, but that's another big jump. They're letting it sit at 13.5 because they don't wanna get killed by the sharps.

Ohio State-Utah is the same way. It opened big (the models actually predict a bigger OSU win), but now it's down to that 6.5 number and people are hammering OSU -- almost 80%, and Vegas doesn't care. They know Utah is going to run the ball straight up CRD's ass.

So, if I were paying attention to this stuff, I'd bet Cincinnati, Georgia and Utah and expect to go 2-1 at worst. Of course, I'm a general public dead money fucker all day, so I'm backing HARBAUGH!!!!, The Nick and, of course, Utah.

[lineygoblue]

If Michigan can be within 7 late in the 4th quarter, look out for the upset.

Someone I was talking to the other day about the game asked me to tell them which game was Georgia's 'best' win of the season. Not having a schedule in front of me, I couldn't name it. He told me their 'big' win of the season was versus Kentucky.

Georgia's schedule was not as tough as Michigan's. 4 of Michigan's last 6 games were against tougher opponents than Georgia's best win. (MSU, Penn State, OSU, Iowa)

[Mike]

Georgia beat Clemson 10-3 (with a 74 yard INT return TD) in the first game of the season when they were both in the top 5. Clemson obviously is in a transition year but won their last 5 to go 9-3. Not sure how to value that win but it sure was ugly.

It would be cool if the Iowa-Kentucky game was prior to the Orange Bowl to see how they stack up with each other. My guess is Kentucky will roll them but that's based on my knowledge of Iowa not Kentucky.

Like most games, Michigan - Georgia, will be won in the trenches. As glorious as it was to watch us physically destroy OSU's D-line.... and O-line, the reality for this game is that Georgia is much better at both position groups. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of this Michigan season is their overall team speed. It's no accident that they lead the country in big plays. While Haskins is a workhouse, they have some burners that can get yards in big chunks if they get out in space. Michigan will need to produce a rushing attack that is at least credible, 150+ yards, to set up play action and any trickeration they might be planning.

Bottom line:

I don't expect to win. I don't expect to lose. I expect to be ecstatic about Michigan playing in this game and enjoy every minute.

[lineygoblue]

Agree. What Michigan accomplished in their last two games will be plenty to look back on and enjoy for the next year. Two of the most elusive goals were met, and then some.

But the dream ending is probably going to remain just that. Like Rich Eisen said last week, "If Michigan wins the NC, they will have earned it".

The NCAA has made it as difficult as possible.

[Mike]

I don't think the NCAA has anything to do with the CFP but winning NCs is never going to be easy.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'd be surprised if this game isn't going to be low scoring with the O/U around 50. If M holds UGA's rush yards to < 4ypc and Kirby has to go to Stetson to move the chains, I think M wins on big plays and RZ efficiency.

If there's an intangible that pushes the outcome to M it's determination. This is the most determined M football team I've seen in recent memory.

M 24, UGA 20

[Mike]

That's similar to how I see it. The O/U is 44.5 so your score is right on what Vegas thinks in terms of scoring. I think we're probably more suited to win a low scoring slugfest type game because of RZ efficiency AND special teams. If we can play to a stalemate offensively it could come down to ST and a big play or two.

[lineygoblue]

I'm not afraid of this becoming a slugfest. I think Michigan can dish it out as well as anyone in the country. In fact, I think that's probably the worst strategy that Georgia could take with Michigan. These guys aren't going to back down from a physical game.

This is all house money. The main objectives have been met, and there's a lot of great memories to enjoy for the next year. I intend to enjoy all of it, no matter what happens in the CFP.

[Mike]

Yep. I love the underdog role. If Georgia doesn't win the natty, their season is a bust. They have the pressure. Michigan can just pin their ears back and let her rip.

[WingsFan]

I was watching Blake's highlights before he hurt his ankle, man he was fast. He's says he's back to 100%, and the injury got Edward's value playing time. Would like to see all three all the same time. That int vs osu Edwards was wide open in the flat out of the backfield, would have walked in for TD.

[klondike]

I'd be surprised if this game isn't going to be low scoring with the O/U around 50. If M holds UGA's rush yards to < 4ypc and Kirby has to go to Stetson to move the chains, I think M wins on big plays and RZ efficiency.

If there's an intangible that pushes the outcome to M it's determination. This is the most determined M football team I've seen in recent memory.

M 24, UGA 20

Michigan has to hit a few big plays. Maybe Corum will have a big run. I see them getting stonewalled trying to run but if they keep at it I can envision a long run or two.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Gattis showed some play calling skills v. both osu and Iowa. The hobbled Corum 57y run v. Iowa was one and Cade had at least two chain moving or 3rd down conversions off skillfully set up PAs that went for 10+ in that game as well.

UGA's D played straight up without more of Gattis play calling skills being evident isn't going to do much for M's offense. Kirby is a very good FB coach and will have looked at M's tendencies. He'll have his D prepared for that. Gattis has to confound UGA's defensive expectations for M's play calls to sustain drives.

It's not just Gattis either. It's the OL package that goes with a certain play call. Harbaugh is good at springing TEs for easy pitch and catches when the line or RB action screws with UGA's defensive keys. Kirby will have seen this stuff on tape. Gattis has had almost a month to design and have his offense practice those plays countering M's tendencies that will catch UGA's D off guard.

Watching this game viewers are going to have to be patient and not pound the table when the run game isn't breaking for 4+ ypc. This is a heady offense that does a lot of stuff that may look bad but is actually setting up a big run or pass play. M has to get a couple of those to win this game.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Speaking of Gattis' play calling skills, this is really good analysis of M's offense done by UGA guys. They really do highlight through film study how diverse M's offense is and how well Gattis uses TEs (think that is JH's stuff). "They have some dudes. and a QB that doesn't turn the ball over"

Two salient comments, "If I'm UGA's DC, I'm going to work the L Tackle." That's Ryan Hays who has had a couple of bad games as reflected by his PFF grades. The point here is that UGA is going to try to get M into third and 7 and bring pressure on McNamara. If M is living in third and seven, they're going to lose. True dat.

"M isn't a run the ball down your throat or throw the ball all over the field kind of offense. They'll throw some gadget plays at you that are effective (shows several of them v. Wisconsin, PSU and osu)." The point here is that you can't just ignore this and play straight up. You have to be prepared and expect Gattis to change up the keys.

The film analysis highlights what I mentioned above about how M's offense uses the TEs and RBs as both blockers and receivers. It's easy to get set up on defense when you don't take into account that a faux block by either of them can turn into a wheel route or provide Cade a wide open check-down off a PA, deep throw that gets covered. It also hihglights M's OL blocking schemes and how both Corum or Haskins will see opportunities for cutbacks that may not be in the intended direction of the p lay - they are improvisers and very good at it. Both big run plays and solid 4+ yard carries result.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22m91VhmRcg&t=133s

[WingsFan]

Rumors Dax Hill didn't make the trip - Covid