Michigan 42, Iowa 3 -- 2021 Big Ten Football Champions!

[Mike]

Keep them in front of you and make them put together 10-12 play drives to score. They won't be doing too many of those. Even if we get bogged down in the muck, our O-line and DEs will be the difference. I'd really like to see Hutchinson have a few sacks in this game and force his way into NYC. Iowa lives off turnovers and Michigan takes care of the ball really well. Saw an interesting stat today that Michigan also leads the nation in fewest KO yards allowed. They've only had 12 returns against all year for a total of 144 yards. Again, Iowa feasts on defense and special teams. Don't turn it over or have special teams screw ups and its a walk.

[Mike]

This is one of those games where it would be nice to continue the trend of "it's different this year" by doing what frequent double digit favorites like Clemson and Alabama have done to similar caliber opponents over the years -- smack the shit out of them.

I'm drinking the cool-aide now, at least as it pertains to the likes of Iowa, Cincy, ND, etc. This team is peaking at the right time and they play with a chip on their shoulder. They finally figured it out.

[lineygoblue]

I don't think Iowa is going to get too many chances to run back kickoffs, or punts for that matter. Jake Moody's season speaks for itself in XP's FG's and kickoffs. Brad Robbins punts have consistently been kicked out of bounds inside the 20 all year long. Kicking is one of the team's strengths.

Iowa isn't going to get a lot of special teams opportunities.

[Hannibal]

It's hard to believe this but we are two "taking care of business" wins away from playing for a national championship It's similar to the year that the basketball program played Villanova for the natty. If we beat Iowa and play Cincy, I expect us to be 7-10 point favorites. Get us to a one game shot against Georgia and hope for a miracle.

[lineygoblue]

I was thinking that same thing, Hanni. Getting past OSU and into the CCG opens all sorts of possibilities. Still trying to wrap my head around what is possible here.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It is hard to contemplate two wins lands M in the NC.

When Harbaugh landed in San Francisco, in 4 years there he took the 49'ers to two NFC championships and a super bowl. It was here that Jim's phrase, ".......an enthusiasm unknown to mankind" led off by any number of qualifiers, was born. He used it at M very early in his tenure. Harbaugh has unbounded energy and has demonstrated that on multiple occasions in his career both as a player and coach.

Something happened to him along the line at M though that diminished that. Lots of speculation. None of us know what those triggers were for sure. But he was down and and the team he coached reflected that. His renewed energy and enthusiasm this football season has been noticed and whatever he's done in the locker room to get the current team energized and focused, is nothing short of amazing.

The OSU win doesn't happen without amazing things going on within the program. Unless you've been a part of an excellent organization or led one, it's hard to understand and apply the kind of leadership that's apparently produced an 11-1 M football team with that one loss to MSU in EL that stung when it happened, a distant memory - as well as a reflection of Jim's abilities to convert a shitty situation to one that has produced 2 more wins, an annihilation of OSU, and a chance to be playing for an NC.

[Hannibal]

Maybe being humbled by a pay cut contract extension reignited the fire in him and forced him to become the old Harbaugh. He definitely was that guy Saturday and he needs to stay that way.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Some modeling of this game predicts a low scoring match-up with variance (e.g., a blocked punt, INT or KO/Punt return for a TD) swinging the game to a pick-em. The modeled spread however (13-17 points) makes it hard for Iowa to win the game that way. This is in no way a Pick-em contest, IMO but it will be closer in the first half than fans may like.

One way of looking at this contest is YPP. M's average is in the 7+ yards, Iowa's is around 4. M's defense is not likely to lower that rather pedestrian Iowa number but Iowa's is certainly capable of lowering M's. Against OSU, M's average yards to go was < 3. Easy to keep the chains moving and the 4 drives to TDs in the 2nd half were evidence of that. Iowa can make that number > 4. The impact then is fewer sustained drives and less points scored by M.

That's why predictions are for M to score less than 30, probably around 24-28 points, absent variance. By the same kind of analysis, absent variance, Iowa will score around 10-13 points. The spread therefore is between 14 and 15 points which is a lot for Iowa to get a weird play that allows them to win it. Make it uncomfortable? Possibly. Win it? Probably not.

When I put my maze colored glasses on, M scores 31, Iowa scores 10. So, there you have my prediction......

M 31, Iowa 10.

[iam416]

34-10. That’s the correct prediction

[THE_WIZARD_]

23-13

STFU

[maxreturn]

UM dwarfs IA in every offensive category. Defensively they are very close in nearly every category; IA ranks 13 and UM 14 in total defense. IA is a +13 in turnover margin while UM is +6. What is really impressive though, is that UM ranks 6th in fewest turnovers at 9, while IA has turned it over 14 times.

If UM takes care of the FB like it has all season, and comes out with the passion they had on Saturday...it shouldn't be close. But I do expect it to be a low scoring game. I have trouble seeing IA scoring more than 1 touchdown, if any at all. Final will be something like 24-9.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Aside from the astronomical ticket prices (hovering around $400/ticket right now), M is likely to have more fans in the stands than Iowa. M will get the Chicago crowd. Des Moin is nearly 500 miles and a 7+ hour drive to Indy. Chicago is half that. I can't over-emphasize the point that has already been made: the game is not a night game at Kinnick! A neutral field benefits M.

M can also benefit from bending the neutral field towards a home field advantage with a numerous and loud stadium crowd supporting the team. Hard to say that will actually materialize. Chances are it will.

[Tom W]

It won't be a neutral field.

Indy isn't much more than 4 hours from A2/Detroit , so It's perfectly doable to leave Saturday morning and be all set for the 8pm kickoff.

The window to get M's allotment of tickets was ridiculously small - the email went out after the game and you had to commit by midnight on Saturday. Why one would even bother to check their email Saturday evening is questionable, but there was no problem finding takers.

There might be a spite factor from Buckeye fans to explain the astronomical price of tickets, but it's most certainly being driven by Michigan fans that have been waiting in desperation for the last decade

Yeah, I'm kind of kicking myself for not hitting "send" at 11:00 last Saturday night.

[THE_WIZARD_]

With HARBAUGH!!! in control...it doesn't matter if you played the game on the moon...

[Dr. Strangelove]

It won't be a neutral field.

Indy isn't much more than 4 hours from A2/Detroit , so It's perfectly doable to leave Saturday morning and be all set for the 8pm kickoff.

The window to get M's allotment of tickets was ridiculously small - the email went out after the game and you had to commit by midnight on Saturday. Why one would even bother to check their email Saturday evening is questionable, but there was no problem finding takers.

There might be a spite factor from Buckeye fans to explain the astronomical price of tickets, but it's most certainly being driven by Michigan fans that have been waiting in desperation for the last decade

Yeah, I'm kind of kicking myself for not hitting "send" at 11:00 last Saturday night.

If you were playing Wisconsin it might be more lopsided. I think they're pretty "been there done that" with Indy. Iowa might travel well though, I dunno.