Michigan 42, Iowa 3 -- 2021 Big Ten Football Champions!

[Cody_Russell]

31-13 UM. Iowa might get one interception that turns into points, but their offense blows. Michigan will own field position which in turn will determine the outcome. If Blue doesn't sleepwalk, they will crush the Hawkeyes.

My initial score prediction was 27-20 M early in the week.
After listening to a ton of game analysis this week, I want to say M wins 34-13. It makes TOO much sense for M to win, which is scary.

Either way, M wins. I’m sensing 2006 ALCS. Tigers made it past the hard fought Yankees series. Monkey off the back feeling. Demolished the A’s in the following series.

M rolls past Iowa. Go Blue!!! Can’t wait to see the celebration in Indianapolis tomorrow night.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I get why BPONE creeps back in before games that matter for us and obviously for the rep of M football, it's players and coaches. CGVT mentions it. There's a two decade history here justifying it.

As good as I feel about winning this game and advancing to the CFP, shit happens. It's hard to mitigate variance and that's what I'm concerned about. Both teams will play well but one or two untimely mistakes by M, an injury to a key starter, a referee's call at the worst possible time, any of those happening changes things in Iowa's favor.

Stuff like this falls into the category of not having nice things happen when M needs them to happen. I'd say trends to the mean in this category will help M. I think it helped v. OSU. Nice things did happen.

[Hannibal]

As I said up thread, it's nigh impossible to even develop credible sandbagging material. Iowa's offense is utter dogshit. It's going to take a large set of mistakes and/or a massive emotional letdown for us to lose this game. We're better at virtually every position on the field other than cornerback.

[iam416]

100% correct

[Mike]

Only 7 teams in the country punted more times than Iowa this season and they also gave up the second most sacks in the conference.

I’m going with 34-10.

[iam416]

You are correct in your score prediction. Congratulations.

[lineygoblue]

Iowa is not going to be able to keep Hutch and Ojabo off Petras all night long. They're going to get hurries and sacks. Petras isn't known for his running ability, and he's going to have to move if he wants any success at all. If he plans to take a standard 5-7 step drop and take his time finding receivers, he's going to have a very long night.

Iowa will make some plays, both on offense and defense. They're a good team, they're well coached, and like Michigan, they don't make a lot of mistakes that beat themselves.

But if Michigan carries over even 75% of what they brought to the table last Saturday, they should still be able to handle Iowa.

Iowa will commit itself to stop the run, but McNamara (and JJ) have proven they can hit passes when necessary. The TE's on drag and seam routes could make the Hawks pay, and the jet sweeps along with the young WR's are going to give Iowa a lot to defend.

I'm not going to predict a score, but I think Michigan puts it away in the late 3rd or early 4th. This Michigan team is very special. Not your usual suspects.

[Tslisher]

The Iowa offense is a steaming pile. They aren’t going to score more than 10 points unless they get a short field turnover. We’ve been pretty disciplined in the turnover category this year. I’ll give them one that turns into a field goal because our defense holds. They have a good defense so might be able to hold down our running game a bit. I think we’ve solved our red zone issues with some better play calling there. So I’m thinking something like 31 - 13 M.

[WM Wolverine]

^ Facts.

Iowa's offense shouldn't be able to go the length of the field and they have very little big play ability.... Their defense is quite good, they might be able to slow down Haskins enough to force 3rd downs that test McNamara ability to find the hole in their zone coverage...

Zero or one turnover and M wins pretty easily. Give Iowa 2-3 short fields and this is a close game decided in the 4th quarter.

[WingsFan]

Only 7 teams in the country punted more times than Iowa this season

Well duh! look who the HC is. He loves to punt, that his favorite play (like LLLLLLoyd) he punts from the opponents 36 yard line. Iowa is great at fucking up teams seasons, they have a great defense that makes turnovers, they were ranked #2 in the country this year and we all know ranked #2 is hard to hold on too. Funny things happen vs them and Sparty, and have not seen one person anywhere pick an upset. I still cant believe Michigan name is in that end zone in Indy. I have seen way (way) to many Bowl games (mostly on the left coast) I thought Michigan would steam roll and lose by a TD. Throw out the numbers, just win...don't mind me _ Im pumped for the first time this year for this game. lol Kick the damn ball already!

[Jeff Buchanan]

Their defense is quite good, they might be able to slow down Haskins enough to force 3rd downs that test McNamara ability to find the hole in their zone coverage.

Through the better part of the season, for whatever reasons - and I suspect there a lot of them - M found itself in a lot of situations like this. The play calling would look like this: 1st and 10 - zone power for 2 yards, 2nd and 8 - down G for 3 yards, 3rd and 5 - incomplete pass, punt.

There were flashes of speed in space and creative play calling but way too few. M won games by doing just enough until MSU (a different story defined that loss). In the games after that and up until Maryland, you could see the brain trust on offense was starting to experiment with a lean away from a run heavy offense. The offense v. Maryland showed fans Gattis could draw up and then call a coherent run/pass offense that was hard to defend. Ask OSU about that.

Like a lot of Bo's, Moeller's and early LC games, the team got markedly better as the season progressed and M won in November, this was such a season for Jim Harbaugh. No question this was an obviously coachable team and all the coaches had to do on game day was was call the plays that optimized success and the players executed. A new winning mindset and total buy-in from the coaches emerged.

So, no, I don't think the offense is going to find itself in a lot of 3rd and longs or if they are, they'll convert. One of the interesting stats that came out in the M/OSU contest was that on the 4 drives that resulted in TDs for M in the 4th quarter, none of the series in any of those drives presented a third and > 3 and in fact there was only 1.

[WM Wolverine]

Iowa is better defensively than Ohio State tho, Talent will tell us by how much.

Fwiw I think M's offense should do well (say 24-31 points which will be enough to win) but will they have a game where I described and settle for FG's instead of getting in the end zone? Will M kill a few drives with turnovers while giving the Hawkeyes excellent field position? Will they kill a couple other offensive drives via penalties? This is likely a low possession game.

Offense has had some bad Saturdays and Iowa is capable of causing more issues then most other defenses we've played...

I'm still very confident as Iowa's offense is that bad but their defense has the potential to make this a close game.

[Tom W]

Iowa is better defensively than Ohio State tho, Talent will tell us by how much.

Fwiw I think M's offense should do well (say 24-31 points which will be enough to win) but will they have a game where I described and settle for FG's instead of getting in the end zone? Will M kill a few drives with turnovers while giving the Hawkeyes excellent field position? Will they kill a couple other offensive drives via penalties? This is likely a low possession game.

Offense has had some bad Saturdays and Iowa is capable of causing more issues then most other defenses we've played...

I'm still very confident as Iowa's offense is that bad but their defense has the potential to make this a close game.

Yeah, that's what I'm seeing, too. The last week has just been too delicious. Iowa always tends to bring their best game against M, especially when they aren't given much a chance in people's eyes. I can't see Iowa being able to overpower their way to a convincing win, but I can see them making it uncomfortable for us well into the 4th quarter.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Will M kill a few drives with turnovers while giving the Hawkeyes excellent field position? Will they kill a couple other offensive drives via penalties? This is likely a low possession game.

Offense has had some bad Saturdays and Iowa is capable of causing more issues then most other defenses we've played...

To your last point and per M v. Iowa Preview: Michigan has had YPA days of 8.5, 8, 7.5, 8.8, and 9.5 down the stretch here. Wobbles against Rutgers and Northwestern are a long time ago.
So, if when you say M's offense has had some bad Saturdays, the team has progressed significantly in efficiency since those "bad days." I'm not worried about those

Brain of Mgo has predicted a solid Michigan win. HIs takes are usually pretty well supported. Just up thread in his post he writes:

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• It's a passing down.
• Iowa linebackers are catching Hassan Haskins in the face a few yards downfield.
• Iowa is forced into catchup mode.

Finally, Three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Hutchinson has two sacks.
• McNamara does not throw a pick.
• Michigan, 29-12.

I do have concerns about this game but they all relate to high variance occurrences two of which you list. The two you do list can be dismissed (not always a good idea but for my purposes they are) because of how good this M team is at avoiding them.

[Obi-Jon]

Iowa's defensive ranking is good but it's also inflated. They did not play UM, osu or MSU this year. That's 3 losses they avoided. 7-5 if Iowa had played a full tilt schedule. A majority UM crowd in the stands will make this an away game for the Hawkeyes. (Hello Doug!) They can call it a moral victory if they aren't being blown out by halftime.