The Game: M 42 - "The" Ohio State 27 - Not Anymore. Post Game Thread.

[lineygoblue]

They really don't have anything to lose. There's no reason to hold anything back. Throw the whole playbook at them and let the chips fall where they may. According to the experts, Michigan is SUPPOSED to lose.

I don't think the game will be lost on a lack of effort. That is one of many good things that has happened this season, both in coaching and the players. The effort has been remarkable.

I'm trying to get all the good stuff said before the game, because I'll be in meltdown mode afterward. None of the consolation talk will mean anything afterward. Just ask Ohio folks. Its all about scoreboard.

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[klondike]

Some very inciteful breakdowns of this game. But it may all come down to the Buckeye QB just hoping having a bad day or nerves for this opulent contest, but not ours. He will have nerves of steel and carry a near perfect game plan to fruition

[lineygoblue]

Some very inciteful breakdowns of this game. But it may all come down to the Buckeye QB just hoping having a bad day or nerves for this opulent contest, but not ours. He will have nerves of steel and carry a near perfect game plan to fruition

OSU quarterbacks no longer have bad days. At least never against us.

[Tslisher]

On paper, we lose this game despite the effort our guys give something like 42 to 31. But college football is fickle. Players have rough days. Sometimes your QB just doesn’t have it that day. Injuries happen. For Michigan to win, lots of things have to go right on our side. Hutchinson and Ojabo need to get pressure enough to rattle Stroud. We need to keep their receivers from breaking the game open with big strikes. We need to keep this a ‘grind it out’ game and make them sustain drives (and sustain them ourselves). Special Teams or Defense needs to score once. If all those things go our way, I can see us pulling it out in a close game something like 38 to 35. That’s why I’ll be watching. I don’t expect a victory, but there is a small chance.

[iam416]

It's more than a small chance. It's probably between 25-40%. I think closer to 40, but whatever. The point is that M can win this game. And, for that matter, this is basically what it's looked like going into most OSU-M games in the HARBAUGH!!!! era with the exception of 2017. In 2015 and 2016 the betting line was close to even and in 2018 M was favored. I think in 2019 OSU was at about 9. Now, if they had played in 2020 -- full roster vs full roster, the line would have been 28 or more. So, eh. But, they didn't play.

Sooner or later M will win one of this single digit point spread games. That's just a matter of odds. The problem of HARBAUGH!!! -- if it is a problem -- is that that underdog role isn't likely to change any time soon. I think M is probably the #2 program in the B10, but they're way closer to the #4 program than they are to the #1 program. There isn't parity in the OSU-M game and that's not likely to change. I'm honestly not sure where M fans are with this state of affairs -- whether it's acceptable or not. But I do think that's where things stand.

[Tom W]

It’s not acceptable, but it’s all we’ve got at this point.

M fans can either walk away, surrender or keep hoping that they find a way to break through.

[lineygoblue]

It’s not acceptable, but it’s all we’ve got at this point.

M fans can either walk away, surrender or keep hoping that they find a way to break through.

This.

Until (unless?) things change in recruiting, M (and ANY Big Ten team) is going to lag behind OSU in the talent matchup. MSU and their billion dollar coach, and PSU and their skinhead dink coach isn't catching them either. All the emphasis is on whether Harbaugh can match up with Day/OSU, but he's not the only one that's lagging. NO Big Ten coach is closing the gap, as was demonstrated last week.

But Michigan is the easiest target to hang the "failure" tag on.

The best M can hope for in the meanwhile is to put together a team that can one day catch OSU in a situation where M wins a matchup that they can exploit all game long. M will not be able to dominate sideline to sideline, goal line to goal line. But, if they can find some individual talent where they win that particular matchup, then MAYBE they can find a way to turn it into a win.

Like Tom said. Like it or not, its all we have for now. Harbaugh isn't going to be fired for going 10-2, and he shouldn't be. And yes, OSU fans will lap that up. "Stay the course", right?

As of today, there's no better or vialble alternative.

[Obi-Jon]

In 2021:

Texas A&M beat Alabama
Montana beat Washington
Iowa State beat Oklahoma State
Auburn beat Mississippi
etc etc etc


Yep, Michigan has no chance on Saturday. Particularly with their lack of talent and motivation.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is cut and pasted from paywalled ESPN - Bill Connelly keys to wining in all the rivalry games this weekend. Here's M/OSU (edited to make sense of the gobble-de-gook he wrote or more likely showed up in the initial mgoboard reference to it). My take is that Connelly's "keys" only seem to add weight to my keys to the game and I don't think, as Connelly alleges, OSU isn't actually great scoring TDs in the red zone - see below.

1) Red zone opportunities. OSU isn't actually great scoring TDs in the red zone. Make them drive the field, even if it's 20 yard chunks to get inside the 20. Talent thinks this is a red zone contest and since he's predicting an M win, I'm assuming he also thinks M is >> in the RZ than OSU. That is only marginally true and if you want to split hairs, its not true at all..

M
53 RZ attempts
31 TDs
18 FGs
5 Fails
.925 Success rate
40% of RZ attempts were FGs

OSU,
50 RZ attempts
34 TDs
12 FGs
4 Fails
.920 Success rate
24% of RZ attempts were FGs

Another way to look at this is by doing the math. OSU has scored 274 points from the RZ, 34 TDs and 12 FGs. M 271, 31, 18. 274 > 271. IOW, OSU is more efficient in RZ scoring than M is and M is not >> OSU by this measure.

I think the RZ thing is a wash or this isn't going to be a RZ battle if the trends continue in this game.

2) OSU's D is mediocre on passing downs. I can see this born out in opponent 3rd down success rates for the two teams. M's D gives up 3rd down conversions at a 32% rate. OSU at 40% What is a key to this game is M staying on schedule, converting to 1st downs and sustaining drives.

3) OSU offense is surprisingly poor on 3rd & long. OSU, however, doesn't get into many 3rd and longs. OSU is the best offense in CFB in 3rd & 6 or fewer situations. Another key to the game, then, is M getting OSU off schedule. Of particular importance are 1st and 2nd downs that force OSU into 3rd and 7s. When I watch OSU's games CRD is particularly good in play design and calls that scrupulously avoid that (see above).

The two points, 2 and 3 above, demonstrate to me that Ryan Day is going to try to blow M out of the house early with the long ball just like he did to MSU. That approach will have some success. I don't see what happens in the RZ a key to this game. One of several keys I see is stopping the big passing play underneath or over the top and that may be the paramount key. I'll just go back to and stand by these keys: :

• Judicious well disguised blitzes are better than what a blitzy MSU D tried and got burned doing that big time. Let M's DEs do what they do aiding the pressure metric w/o blitzing.
• Don't let your underneath coverage get sucked into covering deeper crossing routes and verts. Communicate coverage responsibilities and switches.
• Keep a S deep that can tackle those 3 receivers and get to Ruckert the TE on wheel routes. These 4 are going to get catches. Keep a 20 yard gain from becoming a TD.

[lineygoblue]

Jon - M has a chance.

There are areas of Michigan's game where if they're really good, and can take advantage in key situations where OSU is not so good, they could win.

I've never believed otherwise.

Its going to take a 1969 effort.

[Jeff Buchanan]

• Ohio State, 40-21

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This is Brian of mgo's score prediction. On M's defense versus the OSU Death star offense he does a credible analysis of match-ups mostly by unit but, stating M's DBs have no chance of keeping up with the trio of WRs who will be first round NFL draft picks. I think that's true unless they are close enough to these rascals until confusion over coverages Macdonald puts out there (the fatal second) combined with the pressure that gets to Stroud and he bails. He does give Hutchinson the edge against LT Ryan Hays doing a Heisman worthy performance ...... which he then states (implies actually) he is unlikely to get because he is going to get doubled and I don't think Brian thinks Ojabo can be the equal of Hutchinson on the other side, or wherever Macdonald lines him up. . Loser mentality .... but, hey, I get this after his bout of severe depression after whatever season of M football woe that was after.

He could be right and that score looks like OSU is going to boat-race M like they have so many other teams they've played since the Oregon debacle.. But, since Day demoted then DC Coombs to the press box and "gave him crayons, a coloring book and a head-set plugged into nothing", things have changed for the fortunes of OSU's. D A lot of entertainment value in that line but well deserved! Since Oregon (7.6ypa) only two teams have averaged over 3 ypa (Neb and Rutgers) and he didn't include Purdue (4.8ypa) for obvious reasons.

So, certainly, if OSU starts popping big plays for TDs out of the gate (I think Talent said this), "its over." ...... and I'd agree. M's hope to keep up and steal a win is for the defense to not look like a Don Brown or Mel Tucker D. This should be absolutely no surprise that this is an important goal to achieve especially early but also throughout the game.

The bottom line for me re Brian's prediction is that I think he's waaay wrong. M may lose but, I cannot help to think they are going to be in it ...... until some bewilderingly wrong penalty is called late that affects the outcome of the game. Wiz, hello.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I love Charles Woodson. What a great player and M football alum. This is FOX's CFB preview of M/OSU.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84y6YYwjJNs

[maxreturn]

STFU

Spoken like a man of few words. I know...."STFU".

[maxreturn]

OSU quarterbacks no longer have bad days. At least never against us.

It's astounding to me how they continually trot out freshman QB's that by are good enough to win nearly every game and near mid season begin to look like seasoned veterans.