The Game: M 42 - "The" Ohio State 27 - Not Anymore. Post Game Thread.

[Tom W]

I will have to look, seen it last night but forgot the year, the last time these two played (in the top 5) in AA (if Michigan is in the top 5)

Was it 2003? If not, then it was 1997. M won both of those, incidentally.

But that doesn't really matter any more than the 1969 comparisons- which are, well really tiresome to the point of nauseating. I would rather sit through a Marvel superhero marathon next weekend than wax poetically about Bo's miracle of 1969.

That said, I'll still site SOME history and use it to build a virtual limb to go out on and say that Michigan finally finds a win this one.

Why? because it's waaaaaaay overdue for some good fortune in this series. It's been way too long since anything has gone wrong for ohio at a critical point in this game. It's been far too long since we've a see a Stanley Jackson sort of pick-six, a Shawn Springs falling down or a Biakabutuka going nuclear.

Instead, we've seen bad rougnness calls, ill-advised interceptions (O'Korn channelling Jackson), walking wounded (Henne, Winovich, etc), criminally inept officiating, bad spots and all other sorts of bad luck.

EVERYTHING has gone ohio's way THIS CENTURY. Yeah, a lot of that has to them being really good- talent wise and coaching wise. But, there's a certain point where it becomes unnatural, and it has to end. Perhaps Harbaugh&Co have, as Talent has eluded to, finally gotten smart and focused on the concepts of matchups, vulnerabilities and exploitations. That seems like a route to successful gameplans that Carr used against Cooper's ubertalented teams- and one could argue that Tressel did that too.

He seems to have tried that in 2017, and it had high probability of working if he had a competent QB. He's got that, and a better overall team, this year. I expect that we'll see a lot things next Saturday that we haven't seen before.

ohio certainly knows that and they've got luxuries nobody else has to counter that. But nobody likes that, and. they are going to need to get served up a bit of misfortune.

The view from the limb says Michigan 33 ohio 20

Sure, it's way more likely that Evil will smoke Michigan again, but I'm not putting money.. or "taglines" on this. The risk of getting mocked for being woefully wrong is far outweighed by the reward if I'm right

[iam416]

I have M winning the red zone battle and the game: 35-30.

[WingsFan]

Of course you do

[THE_WIZARD_]

Talent's predictable sandbagging notwithstanding...it will be closer than what the sandbagging M fans think too. OSU prevails but by 10 or less.

[iam416]

The difference between your prediction and mine is that I think M will more efficient in the red zone. That’s it. We basically see both teams moving the ball, but you think OSU does a little better in the RZ. I think M does.

There’s almost no way OSU is blowing M out. M just doesn’t make the mistakes that lead to that. They play super clean in terms of turnovers and penalties.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I have M winning the red zone battle and the game: 35-30.

I think that's a good but too limited measure of outcomes. Looking at RZ play in isolation, if you had said that after game 6, even 7, I would have called you nuckin futz. For whatever reasons, good game prep and coaching, good execution and play calling, good player development, pure luck, whatever, M's scoring efficiency in the RZ has gotten much better - and I'm not talking FG's. Using those in the count is misleading. Starting with PSU on the road, we started seeing passing for TDs both just outside and inside the RZ instead of defaulting to a FG. Maryland was like a breath of fresh-air from the booth. With M never trailing and piling it on, pass attempts (40), exceeded rush attempts (35). In a game where M was ahead in the Harbaugh era this is an outlier. A prelude to the game plan v. OSU?

The problem with this measure in isolation is two fold: Does OSU live by long drives that involve work in the opponents RZ? I don't think so. M gave up a shit ton of big run and pass plays to MSU. OSU lives by the big play. How often will M's D be dealing with the OSU offense in the RZ? My take is not that often and if RZ play is likely to be a determinizing factor in this match-up, you can be sure CRD won't be playing there much.

[iam416]

There’s no doubt that my analysis is wrong IF Ohio State pops 2-4 big TD plays. I just don’t see that happening. M isn’t going to play stupid defense. They’re going to force patience and with each play OSU runs the chances increase for M’s superstar DL forcing a negative play.

[WingsFan]

Notre Dame leaped Michigan, so it won't be a top-five matchup. Not that its matters.

[iam416]

Look, Penn State forced OSU into a red zone game. M is better on defense. IMO, it’s the most likely way that matchup goes.

[lineygoblue]

There’s no doubt that my analysis is wrong IF Ohio State pops 2-4 big TD plays. I just don’t see that happening. M isn’t going to play stupid defense. They’re going to force patience and with each play OSU runs the chances increase for M’s superstar DL forcing a negative play.

I almost considered this a serious post until I saw the word "superstar". Then, I dismissed it as usual.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I just don't see Harbaugh "forcing" Day into anything Day wants to avoid and a rock fight, where M forces OSU to drive the field, is just that. Day will work to avoid that like the plague.

I agree with you that if OSU pops a bunch of big plays that go for TDs, your analysis will be wrong ..... and I think it will be because I think Day will repeatedly test M's back end, has the OL to do it, the receivers to do it and a QB who, if he can stand in there, will hit those big plays.

My take is that the game will be won not in the RZ but whether or not M can get to Stroud (any number of ways because Macdonald is good at that) or OSU can effectively prevent that from happening and Day is good at that by his play calling. If M can limit the big play, especially if M generates a turnover with Stroud missing coverage while trying to air it out to Olave, Wilson or Smith-Njigba, that would be a game changer

[Hannibal]

I have M winning the red zone battle and the game: 35-30.

Talent — if your tradition of sandbagging was any more fake, it would be the Wisconsin Jump Around.

[THE_WIZARD_]

cogent yet cogent

[iam416]

I consider Hutchinson and Ojabo to be superstars

[Hannibal]

Hutch, yes. Ojabo -- almost.

Dax Hill is probably the second most critical guy on defense. Huge at shutting down plays on the edge.