The Game: M 42 - "The" Ohio State 27 - Not Anymore. Post Game Thread.

[lineygoblue]

I don’t think this game will be in “ref range”.

Yeah, I agree.

I salute all the M fans that will be faithfully watching, but I have no need to.

I will allow my TV to record the game while I'm gone, but it will be an easy 'erase' if it goes as expected.

[THE_WIZARD_]

In fairness to my plump zebra donning buddy...B1G Officiating is not good. CFB in general needs to upgrade how it does things...although I've been out of it for several years now I still have several of my old crews still in the game and they agree. The game has changed significantly over the last 20 years and officiating in general has not kept up. That said I don't think any specific team gets screwed over more than any other...just seems that way with your Maize & ,Blue shades on. Hell UNL got royally screwed with the blatant missed DPI call at the 1 yard line at the end of the Wisky game...looked like the official was in perfect position to call it...he just chose to keep the flag in his pocket and not make that a deciding call in the game...which I'm actually fine with as long as that is called or not called consistently. Let them play is fine by me and call the big ones...not ticky tack holding calls...but drag down holding calls. In watching games this year I have come to the conclusion that they need to change the review process badly. Get some "command centers" that can assist the replay booth/crews like the NFL does. Go to more of a challenge system like the NFL...but most important they need to invest in training of these guys badly. New younger blood is needed and train the hell out of them. Until then...this is what we have...a multi-billion dollar business with guys making peanuts affecting games. Not going to change anytime soon. Best you can do is try to not let the refs have to make calls...win the game with your play. There are about 60-80 offensive plays per team per game. Most times games are NOT determined by one bad call, spot, etc. Great teams overcome a bad call. But I do think the conferences need to make some serious advancements in officiating.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Oh and Liney/Talent:

STFU

[Mike]

Who cares? We're going to get our asses kicked.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Mike, if you haven't already, go back up and listen to the YouTube link talent posted up thread. The guys doing this show have developed a model using some basic stat lines, e.g., yards per pass play. They feed this into the model and it spits out a point spread. Then the two of them use the eyeball test to come up with a score prediction.

The score prediction from them was OSU 34 - M31 and OSU 38 - M 24. In both cases they noted that this isn't the seriously flawed M football team Harbaugh has brought to the field in the last 6 season. If M manages to play cleanly and can, at least to some degree, impose their game style on OSU, M can win the game. Where the two varied in their predictions involved the success, or lack thereof of keeping Stroud around 7.2 yards per pass play. The guy predicting the closer score, gave weight to M's D overall and especially to M's DEs.

I don't think M is going to get blown out and embarrassed. It might if for some reason Stroud blows up and creates a bunch of big plays that result in long TDs but, neither guy thought this was going to happen against a vastly improved Macdonald designed defense that adapted to the skill sets of the players in it.

[iam416]

They were pretty accurate re Penn State-M, too. The model had a bigger M win -- 30-20, but they both picked Penn State by 3 (or something like that) noting that it was a true toss-up game.

[Mike]

I've also developed a model using basic info. It's called "watching the two teams play every year and realizing one is way better than the other."

[Jeff Buchanan]

I disagree with your model homee.

[iam416]

It's called "watching the two teams play every year and realizing one is way better than the other."

The problem for M fans is that they aren't ever going to have a comparable roster under HARBAUGH!!!! It's not going to happen. This team is sort of HARBAUGH!!!'s ceiling -- a really solid team that can easily win the B10 but, honestly, has next to no chance to win the CFP.

If you think Ohio State has talent up and down the roster, wait until you play one of them two SEC motherfuckers. .

This is, honestly, probably Ohio State's worse roster situation for awhile. This was always going to year where the transition from UFM to CRD really shows up. You can see it on their defensive roster. They really are a flawed team. They're nowhere near as good as the 2019 team which, IMO, was a truly elite CFP team. This year's OSU team would get absolutely smoked by Georgia or, IMO, Alabama.

M will get the same fate when they upset Ohio State on Saturday. They'll probably beat Wisconsin and might end up playing UC, who they'll kill. But, eventually Georgia is coming and that's a total beatdown.

[iam416]

The worse-case scenario for M/OSU is if UAT somehow upsets Georgia. Then the B10 team will have to beat Georgia and then UAT, and that ain't happening. Like zero point zero percent chance.

[Mike]

This team is sort of HARBAUGH!!!'s ceiling -- a really solid team that can easily win the B10 but, honestly, has next to no chance to win the CFP.

I mostly agree except his ceiling is being the 2nd best team in the Big Ten. There is no realistic expectation of actually winning it. 10-2 and a NY6 bowl is as good as it's gonna get. I've accepted it. The real prize this year is we could end up winning a Rose Bowl which would be fantastic.

[Jeff Buchanan]

......... which leads to the conclusion that the CFP needs to expand. I'm not endorsing any model. But the evidence continues to mount that restricting the CFBP to 4 teams is harmful to CFB and terribly unfair to players and coaches of the teams that are consistently getting left outside looking in. Just happens that one of those teams is probably going to be M or OSU.

[iam416]

I mostly agree except his ceiling is being the 2nd best team in the Big Ten. There is no realistic expectation of actually winning it. 10-2 and a NY6 bowl is as good as it's gonna get. I've accepted it. The real prize this year is we could end up winning a Rose Bowl which would be fantastic.

I mean, look -- even if you say OSU has a 90% chance to win each year -- and that's just not the case -- the odds are that M wins 1 out of 6. Ohio State has dodged bullets for 16 years or so. Sooner or later they won't. And this year M is 33% (per betting odds) and, IMO, closer to 45%.

Again, this is a red zone game. And I prefer M in that case. If it's not a red zone game then I don't particularly like M's chances.

[Obi-Jon]

......... which leads to the conclusion that the CFP needs to expand....

I'm all for abandoning the playoff system altogether. When we had 25 bowls, we had 25 champions. Plenty of winners to go around. Now bowl games are consolation prizes for not being 'good enough' in the opinion of a selection committee.

Polls ignored, pre-CFP gave fans something non-political to argue about during the off season. (Ergo the hyper partisan state we find this country mired in is the fault of the college football playoffs.) :^) No playoffs was not a bad thing...for the most part. Sure, there will be times that a coach will retire and will put his tears a'flowin QB on TV to beg to backdoor into a share of a mythical championship. But that happens, what, every 70 years? TV companies are the financial winners of the playoffs, and its only money that matters, not the quality of the product.

So now we have a playoff, 1 champion and 131 losers. Expansion will never satisfy the squeaky wheels demanding a larger format. Let's do it like basketball, a 64 team tournament. Play a three game season with 2 wins getting you in.

Keep the 4 game set or get rid of the playoffs altogether.

Bah.

[Jeff Buchanan]

If by "a red zone game" you mean OSU is having to drive the field to score, I agree. That could happen if M keeps Stroud's passing YPA in the low 7s. If not and he connects for big pass plays that end in TDs or, less likely, Trevyon Henderson has a breakout game, M will get whipped.

Speaking of that, trying to think about what Macdonald might be planning ...... one of the things that OSU (CRD) does really well is force defenses to defend every bit of the field. M's tendency under Macdonald is to make skillful use of LBs, Ss and CBs as blitzers. He's good at disguising who's coming so that pre-snap reads can be misleading.

If, as we think, to remain in the game M has to limit OSU's big plays in the passing game (their strength), how good is the young Stroud in diagnosing post snap what's going on and then getting the ball to the area a blitzer may vacate? How good are the receivers in to and then getting open in those areas?

How does Trevyon Henderson's run game fit in on RPOs (assuming CRD runs those) if Stroud picks up, for example, a S, CB or LB blitz, hands off to Henderson he sees the hole and he's running right through the area that blitzer just left open?

Seems to me Mel Tucker took great advantage of what Macdonald features on his defense and had both Thorne and KWIII well prepared to exploit that. CRD's approach?