Another Harbaugh Choke Postgame Thread

[Tslisher]

A review of FEI, S&P+ and Sagrin all uniformly project OSU to win the BIGE with M the runner-up. OSU remains the favorite in all it's remaining games while M is an underdog only v OSU (34.3%, 6.4). They are a 3.5 point, 58.8% favorite in EL today.

By this time of the season, fancy stats tend to get pretty accurate in predicting winners and losers. OTH, teams regularly perform above or below expectations, weather or bad calls intervene or randomness.

I don't know what sorts of weighting total scoring gets in these systems but it seems to me, in OSU's case, they get a bump from the gaudy number of points they put up and probably score differential. Whatever ....... I can't see M going undefeated in BT play just on the eyeball check. By fancy stats, OSU has a 33% of going undefeated while, Michigan, runner up in all the rankings, has a 5.75 chance of going undefeated.

That most here predicted a ceiling of 8 wins for M this season, that the numbers mostly predict M with an 11 and 1 record is nothing short of amazing. 11 wins for M then is the expectation. How often has Harbaugh coached his teams to expectation? IMO, not once and therein lies the problem with fancy stats.

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/2021-wee...e-wins-outlook

The problem with this is with every win the expectations from theses fancy stats goes up. In order to meet these expectations, you would have to win the damn Natty.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Liney F. Sandbagger:

STFU. For the love of Hades.

HARBAUGH!!! 27 TUCKER!!! 13

[maxreturn]

Being that I make my living from stats and probability and I have not seen MSU play at all; I thought it would be interesting to look at some stats to make a prediction. Here are a couple of interesting metrics:

Cumulative win-loss record of opponents: MSU: 19-30, UM: 27-25
Number of opponents with winning records: MSU: 0, UM: 2 (WMU at 5-3 and N. Illinois at 6-2)

Based on my analysis of this metric and others I say UM by 10. Go Blue!

[lineygoblue]

Wiz: Just make sure you name them "Liney's Bloody Mary Wings".

[THE_WIZARD_]

You got it.

"LINEY'S BM WINGS"

...so good...they'll move ya!

[lineygoblue]

And the condiment to go with it is Go Bleu cheese sauce...

[THE_WIZARD_]

...I prefer the Big Red No Illegal Kickin' Hot Sauce...

[JRB]

R.J. Moten gets an easy interception to snuff out the first Spartan possession.

[JRB]

Andrel Anthony's first TD for Michigan is huge. Michigan scores on a 99 yard drive.

7-0, good guys, as Anthony goes 93 yards.

[Hannibal]

Yuuge. Also — survived MSU’s customary infuriating first possession without giving up points.

[JRB]

Damn. Blake Corum drops a wheel route on third and five. That could have been 14-0.

[Mike]

Looks like Michigan can make big plays, too.

[JRB]

Interception #2? Mike Morris comes up with the tip. Got to make them pay for this.

[JRB]

Andrel Anthony already over 100 yards receiving in the first quarter.

[JRB]

10-0, good guys. Michigan missing chances to take charge of this one early.