Another Harbaugh Choke Postgame Thread

[Jeff Buchanan]

MSU certainly has a better offense than Washington. Good grief.

Well, I've started looking at offensive efficiency in terms of 3rd down conversions and scoring. In 3rd down conversions, MSU ranks 107, Udub ranks 36th. In scoring MSU ranks 29th Washington ranks 103.

I think we know MSU is a big play offense and those rankings support that observation. Hannibal thinks M won't be able to stop that. I think they will - or at least limit it to a "one or two big plays instead of 12" (Seth writing at mgo) - and if they do MSU is not going to sustain drives and score. It's all or nothing sort of game strategy for Tucker. That's a risky strategy IMO.

Looking at M's last game, MSU's OL is not as bad as NWU but M has done a very good job of pressuring QBs all season. It is part of the Harbaugh approach that limit the opponent's offense to protect M's defense and play good special teams. So far, that's a winning strategy given who M has played. My sense is that MSU is not significantly better than teams M has done well against so far with that strategy MSU is not the scoring Machine that, for example, OSU is.

Looking at numbers to determine who might prevail in a CFB is a foo'ls errand but it is a frame of reference and therefore has some utility. But randomness and variance play large roles in CFB so, who really knows. Were' all just guessing ....... me from a frame of reference.

[froot loops]

If you watch or follow the team it isn't all or nothing with big plays, but if you score a bunch of big plays it takes away the drives to plug along.

If you are doing an analysis that says a team that ranks 29th in scoring is not as good as a offense that ranks 103rd, the anlysis is utter shit.

[WM Wolverine]

Has either team played a ranked (still ranked) team yet?

[Jeff Buchanan]

If you are doing an analysis that says a team that ranks 29th in scoring is not as good as a offense that ranks 103rd, the anlysis is utter shit.

That's not what I concluded from looking at those rankings. First those two rankings really don't tell us much. What I concluded from them is that MSU is a big play offense and I thought that a risky strategy in that if M limits that approach, MSU is going to be in trouble. Do you disagree with that? If so, tell me what kind of offensive strategy Mel Tucker is playing.

[froot loops]

You can tell a lot by scoring ranking. If you are ranked 29th in scoring you are a much better off than the 103rd ranked team. As far as the offense MSU is going to run. They run the ball and do a lot of play action.

[THE_WIZARD_]

MSU offense sux if they only put up 13 in regulation on UNL defense.

HARBAUGH!!! 27 TUCKER!!! 13

[froot loops]

That's true, but they beat the living shit out of Nebaska in the special teams.

[froot loops]

Nenraska is no slouch, probably the greatest 3-5 team in history.

[Jeff Buchanan]

That's true, but they beat the living shit out of Nebaska in the special teams.

I hope that's a tongue in cheek statement because if it's not you're a buffoon.

You can tell a lot by scoring ranking. If you are ranked 29th in scoring you are a much better off than the 103rd ranked team. As far as the offense MSU is going to run. They run the ball and do a lot of play action.

Look, you're just not getting it. Of course your better off but looking at the numbers I presented about the MSU offense, they are 103 in third down conversions and yet ranked 29th in scoring tells me they don't use sustained drives to score, they use big plays. WTF does it tell you?

Your posts remind me of Ali's rope-a-dope act. It looked good and got him through some tough fights but it was an introduction of finesse to heavy weight pro-boxing that didn't much impress anyone except the sports press. He avoided taking the big punch and losing a match.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!! 27 TUCKER!!! 13

[Dr. Strangelove]

I agree with froot. I think you're reaching, Jeff, in citing this 3rd down stat. MSU is far better than UDub in scoring and yards per game.

Washington has scored more than 24 points in only 2 out of 7 games: against Arkansas State and Cal. Cal traditionally being one of the worst defenses in the Pac12.

Washington currently ranks 10th in the Pac12 in yards per game. Only Colorado and Arizona (two dreadful teams) are worse.

[Jeff Buchanan]

On Washington...... they have a shitty offense but their defensive FEI is 16th. Sparty has played two teams with a pulse on defense. Indiana, who is 32, and Nebraska (whom M also played) who is 21. Both of those teams held them to ~250 yards of offense. M has a very good chance of doing the same thing to MSU's offense that others have done.

Look, none of these numbers are terribly relevant. They provide a baseline and it doesn't favor MSU. OTH in CFB, analysis like this as a means of predicting an outcome oftne faill short when the final seconds tick off the game clock. All I now for sure is that someone is going to win this.

[lineygoblue]

...Bloody Mary Wings...

Liney...you are a GENIUS!

Not genius like HARBAUGH!!! but closer to Wile E. Coyote...

If the bloody mary wing sauce is a success, I demand a royalty fee ...

[lineygoblue]

Jim Harbaugh has never beaten a Top Ten team on the road since arriving in Ann Arbor.

MSU 20
M -- 14

Don't let one loss become two. Indiana won't take a beating without a fight.

[THE_WIZARD_]

It might end up being my 8th best sauce.

You'll get a Navin R. Johnson check.

$1 and nine cents.