Another Harbaugh Choke Postgame Thread

[froot loops]

You can run on the Spartans between the 30s, they start to tighten up after that. They play a lot of bend but don't break and count on getting sacks to stop.the drives. It has worked so far. Walker runs a lot like LeVeon Bell did in the NFL, not necessarily the MSU version. He's a good cutback runner who is patient about letting the blockers do their job.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Those that choose to ignore the genius of HARBAUGH!!! shall suffer a giant slice of humble pie...

HARBAUGH!!! 27 SPARTICUS!!! 13

[lineygoblue]

MSU will win by the natural home field 3 point advantage.

[Jeff Buchanan]

You can run on the Spartans between the 30s, they start to tighten up after that. They play a lot of bend but don't break and count on getting sacks to stop.the drives. It has worked so far.

MSU Red Zone Defense is ranked 55th nationally @ 80.7%. Pretty stingy but about average. M scores 91.9% of the time and ranks 23rd nationally. M has had 33 RZ opportunities, rushed for 18 TDs, passed for 2 and kicked a FG 10 times. Out of 20 M scores, 50% are FGs

The Spartans rank 87th in the FBS in total defense, allowing 406 yards allowed per game, but they allow less than two touchdowns per game.

Fact checking reveals Froot's take above to be accurate. M's futility scoring TDs in the RZ and settling for FGs plays into MSU's RZ strength. M isn't winning this game by kicking FGs.

[iam416]

Sparty is just not good enough to beat M right now. They struggled with both UNL and IU. That's just the reality. HARBAUGH!!!!! can just jam the running game down their throat and mix in Cade's standard Joe Montana ball control passing and it's a wrap. Like a 3-score wrap.

The only way Sparty stays in this is if Nailor and Reed make 3-4 huge plays. M's secondary is probably the only part of the team where there is even a shred of doubt as to CFP-caliber. I think we'll get a definitive answer this week.

[Mike]

MSU Red Zone Defense is ranked 55th nationally @ 80.7%. Pretty stingy but about average. M scores 91.9% of the time and ranks 23rd nationally. M has had 33 RZ opportunities, rushed for 18 TDs, passed for 2 and kicked a FG 10 times. Out of 20 M scores, 50% are FGs

It looks to me that 66.6% of Michigan's RZ scores are TDs and 33.3% are FGs.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The only way Sparty stays in this is if Nailor and Reed make 3-4 huge plays. M's secondary is probably the only part of the team where there is even a shred of doubt as to CFP-caliber. I think we'll get a definitive answer this week.

I think this is exactly what happens and will be the reason that MSU wins. Big plays. But., when I looked I found that I am entirely wrong about this.....

I went through a bunch of fancy stats (Sagrin, FEI, ESPN Power) to try and find the number of plays over 20y that the M D has given up. I couldn't find a discreet number for that stat. What I did find was an overall number reflective of the number of points M's D gives up per opponent possession. That number was 5.06 and ranks 18th nationally. UGA is #1.

You could infer by that stat that M's D doesn't give up as many big plays as observers think it does or at least the M D isn't getting run out of the stadium by teams bombing away on them. Put that with various post game articles that might talk about M's D giving up "too many big plays" and their aren't a lot of them after game 7. In fact, the trend seems to be the opposite. The D did give up big plays at a higher rate in the beginning of the season but that has declined.

M fans tend to suffer a recency bias about this. The 75 yard scamper by NWU's RB that put 7 points on the board tends to cloud the fact that there was only one of those out of the 50+ plays Fitz ran. Moreover, that single 75y run was about a third of NWU's total offense. Out of the 350+ plays M's D has faced, there are probably just a hand full of plays that netted over 20y. But, no, we tend to see the CB and Ss giving these up at a very high rate. That isn't born out by the numbers it would seem.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It looks to me that 66.6% of Michigan's RZ scores are TDs and 33.3% are FGs.

Fixed.

[iam416]

I think this is exactly what happens and will be the reason that MSU wins. Big plays. But., when I looked I found that I am entirely wrong about this.....

I went through a bunch of fancy stats (Sagrin, FEI, ESPN Power) to try and find the number of plays over 20y that the M D has given up. I couldn't find a discreet number for that stat. What I did find was an overall number reflective of the number of points M's D gives up per opponent possession. That number was 5.06 and ranks 18th nationally. UGA is #1.

You could infer by that stat that M's D doesn't give up as many big plays as observers think it does or at least the M D isn't getting run out of the stadium by teams bombing away on them. Put that with various post game articles that might talk about M's D giving up "too many big plays" and their aren't a lot of them after game 7. In fact, the trend seems to be the opposite. The D did give up big plays at a higher rate in the beginning of the season but that has declined.

M fans tend to suffer a recency bias about this. The 75 yard scamper by NWU's RB that put 7 points on the board tends to cloud the fact that there was only one of those out of the 50+ plays Fitz ran. Moreover, that single 75y run was about a third of NWU's total offense. Out of the 350+ plays M's D has faced, there are probably just a hand full of plays that netted over 20y. But, no, we tend to see the CB and Ss giving these up at a very high rate. That isn't born out by the numbers it would seem.

Big plays are Sparty's only chance, but, as you noted, the stats bear out how dominant M is on defense. That, and an unstoppable running game is why a few of us here actually think M is elite. Why others on here ignore the numbers is beyond me.

[Mike]

Yeah, I just posted some numbers in the Big Ten thread you might be interested in.

[iam416]

M opens as a 3' point favorite. The easiest of easy money. Get it early because it'll be pushing 5 or 6 by game time.

[AlabamAlum]

Alabama sat in the throne of a historic dynasty for over a decade doing what Michigan is basically doing now: a dominating defense and a pound-you-into-submission running game that wears the other team out in the second half. It even had its own name “Joyless Murder Ball” (a term I believe coined by the “Everyday Should be Saturday” guy, Spencer Hall).

With Lane Kiffin, Alabama transitioned into a more spread-based pass-heavy attack; however, the efficacy of the old philosophy was never refuted. It just happened with the hiring of Lane, and the successful recruitment of some very special QBs and WRs, it made sense to evolve.

I see some obvious parallels with Michigan. I mean, you guys are averaging OVER 250 yards per game rushing (5th in the Nation) against defenses that are primarily cheating the run and have a scoring defense 2nd to only Georgia. As fans, you need to know that this will produce some ugly, inelegant games, but done right, it will also produce a ton of wins.

[Jeff Buchanan]

31.5, 130, 12.7, 49.

MSU defense:

Pass completions allowed per game, 31.5, national rank # 130

Pass yards per completion, 12.7, national rank # 49

Admittedly, the pass completions allowed per game is going to be opponent dependent and also dependent on what kind of defensive scheme a team employs. (MSU deploys a zone defense). It would appear while the MSU defense gives up a lot of completions, they also don't give up a lot of scores. Fit's Froot's point that MSU is bend don't break D.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...you and Styx have too much time on your hands...

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm retired you moron. Time to prove you knuckle heads are wildly wrong about your predictions for this game is what I have.