Another Harbaugh Choke Postgame Thread

[Jeff Buchanan]

Turns out this game will likely determine who will compete with OSU for the BTE championship. Sure, you can come up with all kinds of what ifs ..... but right now, this is where we are.

[iam416]

HARBAUGH!!!! 34, TUCKER!!! 17

Sparty can’t compete with that running game.

[lineygoblue]

Agreed, Jeff. I suppose PSU could shake itself awake with wins over M and MSU, but they aren't beating OSU next week. And nobody,... and I mean NO-BODY in the Big Ten is beating OSU, so we should just forget that right now. See what they are doing to Indiana.

Anyway, back to this game. I'm still too filled with doubt over the past few seasons to expect a M win next week. Too many times I've seen games where Michigan had superior talent, and was on a roll of sorts, .. but still they roll into this game, and act like this is their first game of competitive football in their lifetimes.

Sparty is rolling. They're confident. They have an actual football coach that has gotten them to lay aside the typical thuggery, and play real football. Somewhere, Dantonio is scowling. I wish I could visualize a scenario where M goes in there, and plays lights-out and sends Sparty packing, .. but I just can't see how it happens. Too many obvious weaknesses on defense that can be taken advantage of by a good QB/WR combo. Plus, Sparty has a really good RB to compliment their passing game.

M has some of those same things, but there are too many times when they tend to coast a bit, and not take advantage of opportunities presented.

For me, the best I'm hoping for is that M doesn't let one loss become multiple losses. If they lose this one, they've got to rebound and get the W vs Indiana. Maybe they can pick up a road win against a faltering PSU after that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Strangely, against good competition, M is playing with more intensity on the road than at home. M's struggles with what should have been dominating wins v. Rutgers and NfW at home compared with gritty wins v. Wisconsin and Nebraska on the road are revealing.

I think this tells us a lot about how Harbaugh is putting the game in the hands of the players. I think he has a history of disadvantaging the offense with a conservative, take no risk, protect any lead strategy. There seems to be a bit less of this in 2021. I'd call that encouraging..........

....... and Linesman and I know, the minute you start thinking good things about M football , they will shit the bed.

[lineygoblue]

and Linesman and I know, the minute you start thinking good things about M football , they will shit the bed.

Someone please tell me why I should feel differently.

[Cody_Russell]

Really I’m just excited to be at this point. 7-0 vs 7-0 in the Paul Bunyan Trophy game. Biggest game in this rivalry… ever? It’s up there.
Yes, I could mention actual football analysis for the game, but that sounds boring. Just get some popcorn ready and enjoy the fun.

Someone will win 23-17. Coin flip. I’ll go with my team because Mike Hart is on the coaching staff this season. Also this isn’t like 2020 and 2017 when one team solely has the pressure to win. No underdog here.

M 23
MSU 17

[lineygoblue]

I do believe it will be a close game. I don't expect a lot of scoring. Both offenses will find it difficult to move on the ground.

I think the difference will come in the passing game where MSU can hit the deep routes and Michigan cannot. I believe Michigan was something like 0-6 yesterday, where the receiver was more than 15 yards downfield when the ball was released. M's DB's have often been burned on deep routes. McNamara throws those balls short more often than throwing the receiver open, or in stride.

I'm not predicting a score, just a close ballgame.

[froot loops]

For the Spartans the deep routes haven't been there against a good team. Although against Indiana there was a couple bad drops early. But if Thorne can get time he has a very good deep ball. It should be close. The Spartans probably have the edge because they are at home, but they aren't as good as their record suggests.

[WM Wolverine]

Our corners allow even meh receivers to get separation, very afraid of actual good receivers like Sparty has. They'll give up a big play or 2. M's pass rush isn't much more than Hutchinson and Ojabo, which they'll need to give our corners less time to cover...

McNamara playing just well enough, he's not good and M has needed the running game to carry them to being 7-0. Fwiw I think the receivers share some of the blame with McNamara. M isn't allowed to have nice things like Xavier Worthy and Ronnie Bell. I really want to see Dylan McCarthy but I think they need the sophomore version not true freshman.

Not confident, I think M has more talent but Sparty is a tough matchup, on the road, in a rivalry game, after a bye week. I've got the coin as a coin flip, last possession wins. M 24, Sparty 23.

[lineygoblue]

McNamara playing just well enough, he's not good and M has needed the running game to carry them to being 7-0. Fwiw I think the receivers share some of the blame with McNamara. M isn't allowed to have nice things like Xavier Worthy and Ronnie Bell. I really want to see Dylan McCarthy but I think they need the sophomore version not true freshman.

I get the same impression about McNamara. He's hanging onto the job, but JJ is definitely up and coming. In fact, I think JJ will beat McNamara out of the job in 2021.

I'd feel a lot better about M's chances in EL if we still had Bell, or had we been able to get Worthy into a M uniform.

M v MSU is traditionally a low scoring game, and I expect more of the same. MSU gets the home field 3 points.

[Cody_Russell]

Reading up about the history of the M vs MSU rivalry… there were of course highly ranked matchups in the 50s and 60s.

This is the first time M and MSU are BOTH 7-0 (or better) heading into the game.

M should be ranked #5 or #6. MSU should be ranked #6 or #7.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!! 27 SPARTICUS!!! 20

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is a diary entry at mgo diaries that I stole. It plays to AA's post in another thread that scoring defense ranking tends to predict who ends up in the NCG - hence AA's prediction that M will face UGA in the NCG. It's beside the point that I think that prediction is utter trash. But there are some reasonable takes that I post below the stolen stats:

Point Differential Per Game vs All Opponents

UofM +23.3 (37.7-14.3)
MSU +15.6 (34.3-18.7)

Yardage Differential Per Game vs All Opponents

UofM +143.9 (442.9-299)
MSU +45.3 (451.7-406.4)

Strength of Schedule per Sagarin

UofM 27th
MSU 49th

Versus Common Opponents:

Vs. Nebraska

MSU +3* points (23-20 OT) and -188 yards (254-442).
UofM +3 points (32-29) and +28 yards (459-431).

Difference EVEN point differential and Michigan +216 yards net yardage advantage.

Vs. Northwestern

MSU +17 points (38-21) and +111 yards (511-400).
UofM +26 points (33-7) and +224 yards (457-233).

Difference UofM +9 points and +123 yards net yardage advantage.

Vs. Rutgers

MSU +18 points (31-13) and +211 yards (588-377).
UofM +7 points (20-13) and -76 yards (275-352).

Difference MSU +11 points and +287 yards.


PFF on the Front 7 on Defense

UofM #2 in the Country
MSU #4 in the Country
Wisconsin #5 in the Country

OK, what can you take from this? Looking at how M ran the ball v. Wisconsin (terribly) and that MSU's defense is just about equal to Wisconsin's it becomes clear that M isn't going to run well enough to control the game and win it with 50+ rush attempts. This means Gattis is going to have to draw up and the offense is going to have to practice this week and then execute next Satruday in EL some mid-range passing plays. Deep balls wouldn't hurt either ..... the ones' that run into big plays. But McNamara is going to have to take the chance and throw his receivers open and/or Josh Gattis needs to draw up a route tree that will confuse MUS's DBs sufficiently for M's receivers to get some separation - something they are not getting and some see this as a Gattis pass play design problem

Thunder at Touch the Banner isn't a fan of Josh Gattis and has pointed out that his play calling and play design in the passing game sucks. He gives examples of the futility of M's Gattis engineered passing game v. Rutgers and it's continuance v NfW. There's a distinct lack of RPOs. That problem allows the DBs, who don't have to wait on an RPO threat, to immediately cover the routes that Gattis is drawing up. Case in point: When Cade did step back to pass deep v. NfW DBs, his receivers were always well covered and Cade probably decided to not do a 50/50 throw and instead threw it out of reach - he looks inaccurate, right? Maybe he's not and those are planned throwaways. We also don't know what the route tree is. It appears it's not very complicated and not likely to fool coverages by the DBs. What we see is the net outcome - McNamara's pitiful yards per completion stat (6.2 ypp I think it is) as he routinely checks down to the outlet receiver who then gains 3 yards.

Anyway, I think the match-up between M's offense and MSU's defense favors MSU and not by just a little. The match-up between M's defense and MSU's offense probably favors M. What this probably means is that we're going to see a low scoring slug-fest of a game that is stressful to watch and favors the team that makes no forced errors and ends up on the plus side of the turnover differential.

This, of course, assumes there are no game changing errors by the zebras something we are seeing way too much of this season. Of course, that's unlikely so ..... randomness will play a role in Saturday's outcome. That's too bad but a fact of life, I think M loses something like 17-13 or marginally higher scores but by similar losing differentials of between 3 and 4 points. I'll let that prediction percolate a few more days and maybe revisit it on Thursday.

[AlabamAlum]

Michigan will grind out a 34-17 win.

[iam416]

That was and is my prediction