Michigan 33, NWU 7. Post game thread.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Not much to write about here. Except Linesman is correct. Fitz will have the Wildcats prepared.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...

[Hannibal]

Northwestern sucks but they did beat Rutgers pretty handily, unlike us (in retrospect -- boy what a terrible game that was)

They have replaced their QB and the newer guy appears to be way better than the guy that they started the season with. Their defense. appears to be really bad as they have given up over 500 yards to any team that is comparable to Michigan (MSU, Nebraska, and Duke).

Anywho, I feel bout the same with this game as I felt going into the 2013 Akron game. It should be a blowout.

[Mike]

Getting into the meat of the schedule with the defending West Division champs coming to town.

[lineygoblue]

I watched NW's game vs Rutgers last night, and Michigan should probably roll these guys. The NW QB has a good arm, and if given time he can find his receivers. But I wasn't impressed with NW's OL, and I think M should be able to pressure him fairly well with a 4-5 man rush. They have 3 receivers that have some speed, and they catch anything thrown near them. But if the QB is pressured, he misfires a lot. They have one RB who can gain yards, but he has no breakaway speed.

Defensively, I don't see them being able to pressure M's QB's without blitzing. If they blitz, M's receivers should have a field day. Most of the tackles were being made by LB's. If M blocks like they did vs Washington, NW is doomed. M will run all over them.

If Michigan plays like a real undefeated team, they should win by multiple touchdowns, something like 35-7. If they fart around like they've been known to do, it will be closer. They better not be looking ahead, because NW and Fitz can pull the upset.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that M will be ready for this, and they're going to roll.

M -- 35
NW - 7

[Hannibal]

Michigan is only favored by 21.5 in this one. I'm inclined to lay the points. But I guess we'll see. I'm mentally prepared for a shitshow ala Akron 2013 and Army 2019.

[froot loops]

I wouldn't lay the points, this Wildcat team may be shit but it seems like Fitzgerald's teams get better as the season goes on. Plus if they got up by a couple of scores I would expect Harbaugh to try and shorten the game.

[Cody_Russell]

NW football is a program that is sometimes capable of playing up to a good opponent. The whole play up to a good opponent/ play down to a bad opponent idea. That's NW. A prime example is 2018 #14 M @ NW. ... NW was up 17-0 and M miraculously had to comeback to win the game. https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...meId/401012892

That said... I think M wins comfortably. Hopefully the game script allows M to be vanilla. Work on their weaknesses (passing offense). Play JJ McCarthy a ton. Stay healthy for the big game in the following week.
M 34
NW 10

I think Ryan Hilinski is the NW starting QB now. If you haven't heard about Hilinski's tragic story relating to his brother... it's worth a read. Hilinski was a big time recruit at South Carolina that didn't work out.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I wouldn't lay the points, this Wildcat team may be shit but it seems like Fitzgerald's teams get better as the season goes on. Plus if they got up by a couple of scores I would expect Harbaugh to try and shorten the game.

This is a good take. I'm about 2500 miles East of Fort Lauderdale in the middle of the Atlantic with limited Internet services aboard a cruise ship. I'm keeping up but on a limited basis.

I just read Linesman's post above. I think it's a good take too ..... especially the part about "farting around." No question Harbaugh teams have played down to their competition. They also seem to come out of the gate after a bye-week flat and disinterested against weaker competition on paper. Wiz and Talent can predict these crushing wins for HARBAUGH!!! against NWU but those both experienced observers and long in the tooth re M football know better. Shit happens and it seems to happen a lot with M football over the last two decades.

Admittedly, this team seems to be engaged and, for the most part - problem areas of the 2021 team already addressed not with standing - getting by those with a winner's attitude. That's been missing.

With observer's like Froot that are not burdened with typical M biases seeing this "shortening the game" thing as an affliction on Jim Harbaugh's coaching efforts is important. It's real, IMO and even in the setting of this team looking like winners, not losers as in the recent past, it seems JH has a tendency to put this team in bad spots. Here, big play opportunities that come from more aggressive, risk taking coaching don't get realized - case in point, settling for FGs with the ball first and 10 inside the opponent's 5. In retrospect, I think the 2019 and 2020 teams checked out because of this aspect of JH's football coaching character.

So, if NWU gets close or up even by one score, Harbaugh may turtle. He's done it before. Yes, this season, that approach has produced wins. But it's a strategy that becomes more relevant the less variance in the game is present. CFB has way too much variance, weird things happening, game changing official's bad calls, on and on. You risk unexpected bad outcomes that are entirely avoidable by "looking pretty" and going for the kill.

Do I think this will happen against NWU in AA? No, I don't but that the risk is there and when outsiders see it as such, it deserves consideration.

[froot loops]

21 points is just an awful lot of points to be laying.

[Hannibal]

I don’t think that it’s a lot for a team as bad as NW. i’ll be fairly disappointed if they don’t cover and it should send up alarm bells if it’s close at all.

Edit: NW is giving up over 200 ypg rushing. Statistically speaking, that’s the worst on the schedule. This game can’t be close.

[lineygoblue]

Edit: NW is giving up over 200 ypg rushing. Statistically speaking, that’s the worst on the schedule. This game can’t be close.

This was my observation watching them against Rutgers. NW's defensive front four was routinely getting flattened by Rutgers, and if not for some good linebacker play, Rutgers wins that game. NW's linebackers saved the day for them. If M's offensive front can get good blocks on their DL, and then get into the 2nd level with just one or two decent blocks, then Corum and Haskins are going to romp. If GattisBaugh tries to get too "cute" and mix in a bunch of unnecessary short passes, then they'll play right into NW's hands. If M wants to pass, then they need to go downfield, and throw to M's WR's running in stride, rather than that stop and go crap that they normally throw. NW's DB's can't cover M's speed on the outside. They just can't.

If M comes in prepared, and ready to play, they'll roll.

If they come in all full of themselves, and looking ahead to State, .. they could get beat.

I'm hoping for the former.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Northwestern is a big steaming pile of dogpoo this year.

HARBAUGH!!! 49 Big Steaming Pile of Dogpoo 14

[WM Wolverine]

Shouldn't be close but NW forces you to sustain drives and execute your offense. M 31 - NW 13

[WM Wolverine]

NW's offense is poop, M's defense has major issued the reminder of the schedule if they give up 20+ to the Wildcats.